KUALA LUMPUR (June 24): RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) has revised its total industry volume (TIV) forecast for 2024, increasing it by 18% to 740,000 units from the previous estimate of 625,000 units.

The research firm attributed the revision to stronger-than-expected TIV performance so far, driven by robust Perodua sales.

"We have revised our 2024 Perodua sales assumption to 330,000 units from 250,000 units.

“Our revised TIV forecast for 2024 aligns with the Malaysian Automotive Association's (MAA) estimate," RHB IB said in a note.

The MAA had earlier forecast a 7.5% decline in new motor vehicle sales for this year, following record sales of 799,731 units in 2023.

In May, the TIV reached 68,665 units, marking an 8.7% year-over-year increase and an 18.4% month-over-month increase, bringing the total for the first five months of 2024 to 328,901 units, up 8% year-over-year.

“The stronger performance was expected, coming from a low base in April due to Aidilfitri festivities,” it said.

Sales volumes from major marques picked up, with Perodua and Toyota/Lexus showing month-over-month growth of 34.7% and 5.2% per cent, respectively, while Proton and Honda saw declines of 8% and 2.5%.

Year to date, Perodua sales have increased by 19.6% year-over-year, raising the national carmaker's TIV share to 63%, up from 60% in 2023.

However, RHB IB predicted that the sector would post negative earnings growth this year, in line with its cyclical downturn.

"There is a lack of drivers to support TIV at current levels, so a weaker performance is anticipated in the second half of this year," it said.

RHB IB reiterated its 'neutral' call on the sector, with Bermaz Auto Bhd as its top pick.

Uploaded by Lam Seng Fatt