CGS-CIMB Research

Bursa Market Outlook: Can the 50-day EMA Hold Up?

sectoranalyst
Publish date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024, 09:59 AM
CGS-CIMB Research

Asian stock markets finished mixed for the second day in a row amid Swiss National Bank’s rate cut. The local benchmark FBMKLCI (KLCI) fell for the fourth consecutive session, declining 7.10pts or 0.44% to end the day at 1,592.69. Most sectors remained in the negative territory barring transportation (+0.15%), plantation (+0.07%) and healthcare (+0.01%). The top laggards were construction (-1.50%), energy (-1.01%) and utilities (-0.87%). Trading volume continued to decrease to 5.04bn (down from 5.57bn on Wednesday) while trading value eased further to RM3.43bn (down from RM4.06bn previously). Market breadth stayed negative as 352 gainers weighed down by 816 decliners.

The benchmark gapped down with its eighth consecutive black candle yesterday. The 1,590-1,600 levels (including the 50-day EMA) provided some sort of support but can the bulls withstand the onslaught? The KLCI may extend deeper consolidation from mid-May. A break below this band would likely see the benchmark fall to test 1,565-1,575 next. The trend line from the 1,632 high is likely to cap its near-term gains. The index needs to overcome and close above the trend line (1,613) and 1,622 to confirm the swing up to retest of the 52-week high at 1,632 and beyond is underway. Our portfolio stays in risk-on mode this week. However, if KLCI closes below 1,597 by end of today, we will revert our portfolio to risk-off mode next week.

Gainers: 352
Losers: 816
Unchanged: 447

DOW: 39,134.76 (0.77%)
S&P500: 5,473.17 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 17,721.59 (-0.79%)
FTSE100: 8,272.46 (0.82%)
DAX: 18,254.18 (1.03%)
HSI: 18,335.32 (-0.52%)
STI: 3,300.00 (-0.12%)
KLCI: 1,592.69 (-0.44%)

USD: 4.7095 (0.06%)
AUD: 3.1406 (0.05%)
SGD: 3.4820 (-0.06%)
EUR: 5.0512 (-0.04%)
GBP: 5.9842 (-0.12%)
JPY: 2.9634 (-0.51%)
CNY: 0.6487 (0.02%)
HKD: 0.6034 (0.10%)

WTI: 81.29 (-0.22%)
Brent: 85.71 (0.75%)
GOLD: 2,360.09 (1.37%)
3rd MONTH FCPO: 3,959.00 (0.99%)
Msia 10 yr bond yield: 3.8620 (0.05%)
US 10 yr bond yield: 4.2594 (0.87%)
ICE LIBOR USD 3M: 5.6090 (0.00%)
Bitcoin Futures: 65,710 (0.14%)
Source: Bloomberg

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