Review on last week’s markets

The US markets had a sharp decline on Wednesday (US time) as investors reacted negatively to the FOMC minutes meeting. It was revealed that the FED will start reducing its $4.5 trillion quantitative easing later this year.

The Dow traded flat last week, closing at 20,656.10, for a 1 year change of +17.75%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 closed at 2,355.54, and +15.36% change for the year.

Elsewhere, Crude Futures closed high for the consecutive week due to investors betting OPEC will reduce supply beyond June and a US airstrike in Syria.

The Nikkei 225 experienced a downtrend last week and closed at 18,664.63. Its 1 year change is still +18.51%. The Shanghai Composite had gains throughout the week and closed at 3,287 with a 9.26% gain for the year. On the local front, Malaysia’s benchmark equity index, KLCI suffered a losses last week, settling at 1741.72, with a 1 year change of +1.01%.

Events to watch out this week (Msia Time)

Every 10th biz day of month (10 April), Malaysia Palm Oil Board’s Palm Oil stocks data. Expect some price volatility for FCPO. Take good care of your trades.

Every 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th and last biz day of month (10 April), ITS & SGS Palm Oil export data. Expect some price volatility for FCPO. Take good care of your trades.

12 April 9.30am, China Consumer Price Index for March. Forecast 1.0%.

12 April 10.30pm, Weekly US Crude Oil Inventories. Last week figures was 0.867 million barrels. Expect some price volatility for WTI Crude Oil. Take good care of your trades.

FKLI

FKLI remained sideways throughout last week and settled at 1,749.5 on Friday. Weekly low was 1,738, just 3 points away from our last week outlook's first downtrend target. Despite this, my analysis remained almost the same, with FKLI to experience a downtrend this week. This is because the index futures formed a double top pattern. Feel free to checkout our double top article for tips. First downtrend target will be 1,735. Shall prices able to break 1,735 and EMA 8-13 forms a deadly cross, I believe the index will then drop towards 1,728 second target. Risk management zone at 1,754. Why 1,754 zone is selected because a break above this zone signals FKLI may start uptrend and invalidate my downtrend analysis.

FCPO

The benchmark crude palm oil prices ended the week at 2,655. Going forward, I believe FCPO will again resume its downtrend this week, as long as EMA 8 -13 remained deadly cross and prices below 2,685 resistance zone. Thus 2,685 will also be our risk management. First downtrend target will be 2,600 while second downtrend target at 2,550.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 virtually experienced a downtrend last week, as correctly warned for the past 3 weeks. Feel free to click 20-24 march and last week outlook for a quick recap on my initial analysis. Going forward, my analysis remained the same. I believe S&P 500 will resume its downtrend this week. This is because EMA8-13 still in a deadly cross mode and also each price swings created lower highs in the day chart. First downtrend target is 2,330 while second downtrend target is 2,315. Risk management will be 2,370.

WTI

WTI did had an uptrend last week, as correctly anticipated in last week outlook. Based on latest price action & EMA 8-13 golden cross, I believe WTI Crude Oil may resume its uptrend this week. First uptrend target is $54 while second uptrend target will be $55. Risk management is the $51. This is because if prices below $51, it means market maybe weak and may spark some selloff.

DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this article is for reference only. No individual financial goals & risk appetite have been taken into account. Futures trading involve high risks.