Market Crash?? 马股会崩盘吗??

1. FBKLCI monthly view by using Elliot wave.

2.The Elliott Wave Theory is interpreted as follows:

a. Five waves move in the direction of the main trend, followed by three waves in a correction (totaling a 5-3 move). This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher wave move.

b. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each wave may vary.

3. Bank Negara Malaysia statement :

a. Latest 2Q19 GDP for Malaysia is 4.9% exceed expectation, supported by higher household spending and private investment. Manufacturing sector also grow from 4.2% 1Q19 to 4.3% 2Q19.

b. "The ringgit has played a very key role in absorbing… and has created a role [for itself] as a shock absorber to ensure that the external developments and the external shocks [do] not translate to disruption in economic activities," said Nor Shamsiah at media briefing on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2019 today. She also noted that the ringgit weakness has somewhat helped increased order volume from the manufacturing side, and the country was "already seeing a trade diversion" from the ongoing trade spat between the US and China.

c. Regarding global bond yields' continuous fall, Nor Shamsiah said the downtrend movement of the Malaysian bond yield is not as bad as other regional economies. She explained that the Malaysian bond market is deep and diversified, coupled with a diversified investors base, which has helped cushion impact on bond yields.

d. When asked if there will be another round of rate cuts, Nor Shamsiah said: "We will continue to assess the external developments and how it affects the medium growth trajectory… both growth and inflation."

5. Our view : Ringgit may remain weak in order to sustain Malaysia economy. 2Q19 GDP 4.9% is far more better than other countries but this growth rate for emerging country like us is low as well. People wont feel the growth and might still suffer because other sectors GDP is dropping for example Agriculture, construction, and Public sector (consumption and investment).

However in terms of FBMKLCI view, Malaysia seems projected to have a uptrend in coming future. Our risk is external risk like trade war between China and US, Japan and Korea, and slow down in world economy growth.

1. 以上分析是以波浪理论为基础来观察吉隆坡综合指数的月线图。

2. 波浪理論的四個基本特點

（１）股價指數的上升和下跌將會交替進行；

（２）推動浪和調整浪是價格波動兩個最基本型態，而推動浪（即與大市走向一致的波浪）可以再分割成五個小浪，一般用第１浪、第２浪、第３浪、第４浪、第５浪來表示，調整浪也可以劃分成三個小浪，通常用Ａ浪、Ｂ浪、Ｃ浪表示。

（３）在上述八個波浪（五上三落）完畢之後，一個循環即告完成，走勢將進入下一個八波浪循環；

（４）時間的長短不會改變波浪的形態，因為市場仍會依照其基本型態發展。波浪可以拉長，也可以縮細，但其基本型態永恆不變。

總之，波浪理論可以用一句話來概括：即「八浪循環」

3. 国家银行的数据

a. 马来西亚经济次季GDP增长4.9%超越预期

b. 马币汇美金的低汇率有助于国家缓冲国外波动的局势，受益者是制造业因为订单与产量增加。目前全球经济环境甚具挑战性，这包括先进与新兴国家的成长皆放缓，持续的贸易紧张局势使外需疲弱，以及全球不确定性提高。

c. 马来西亚的债券还是处于良好状态

4. 我们的观点：马币汇美金会持续保持这个波动 4 - 4.3 为了支持经济的支柱制造业。虽然GDP增长有4.9%比其他很多国家都来的好，但是属于新兴国家的我们人民不会感受到好感。这是因为主要人民会会感受到的行业如农业，政府开销以及建筑业都放缓了。新兴国家一般需要5%以上的增长才会让人民感受到好感。

吉隆坡综合指数在经过一番大调整过后看上，这是因为经济并没如预期的大跌。如果外围混乱的局势得到缓解，以马来西亚现有的基础成长能力是有的。大型建筑工程如果有钱推行将有助与经济的成长，另外政府强力推行农业发展也希望会有成果。

下图是之前分享过的股市会大跌的月分 (八月/九月)：

This chart we share before, August and September is the month where major correction use to happen on average.

Reference :
http://www.enanyang.my/?p=1273143
https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/568028

以上纯属个人分析与评论，如有任何疑问，欢迎与我交流讨论。任何股票买卖建议输赢绝对不负责。

From：林友志（Lim Yu Chee) 012-7685809 / Makubex718@gmail.com