[PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD：由于原油价格下降和市场需求疲软，国油石化的整体平均产品价格较上一季度下降]

3Q19 vs 3Q18:
由于原油价格下降和市场需求疲软，国油石化的整体平均产品价格较上一季度下降。收入减少12亿令吉或24％至37亿令吉，主要是由于产品价格下跌，部分被销量增加以及马来西亚令吉兑美元走弱所抵销。EBITDA减少7.13亿令吉或44％至9.15亿令吉，主要是由于压缩利润。税后盈利也减少了6.64亿令吉或54％，至5.58亿令吉，原因是EBITDA降低。

烯烃和衍生物：
该部门的工厂利用率较低，为78％，而去年同期为96％，这主要是由于维护活动增加。销量下降是由于产量下降。由于原油价格下跌，该部门的平均产品价格下跌。

由于产品价格和销量下降，令营业额减少了8.82亿令吉或28％，至23亿令吉，被马币兑美元走弱所部分抵销。该部门的EBITDA减少5.49亿令吉或57％，至4.16亿令吉，主要是由于压缩利润。税后利润也减少了5.3亿令吉或70％，至2.32亿令吉，主要是由于息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）有所下降和联营公司的亏损净额（去年相应季度有利润净额），这主要是由于计划内的维护活动以及较低的价格。

肥料和甲醇：
由于原油价格下跌和市场需求疲软，该部门的平均产品价格下降。由于产品价格下跌，该部门的收入减少了3.05亿令吉或18％，至14亿令吉，部分被销量增加和马来西亚令吉兑美元走弱所抵消。 EBITDA减少1亿4千300万令吉或21％至5亿4千5百万令吉，与收入下降相符。因此，税后利润减少了1.12亿令吉或26％，至3.15亿令吉。

YTD19 vs YTD18：
整体平均产品价格较同期下降，同时原油价格下降。收入减少24亿令吉或16％至121亿令吉，主要是由于产品价格下跌部分被马币兑美元走弱所抵消。

EBITDA减少16亿令吉或30％至37亿令吉，主要是由于压缩利润。税后利润也减少了14亿令吉或36％，至25亿令吉，这是由于息税折旧摊销前利润有所下降以及合资企业和联营企业的亏损净额（相比去年同期的利润净额）。

烯烃和衍生物：
厂房利用率从去年同期的95％下降至本期的91％，主要是由于维护活动增加，导致产量和销量下降。由于原油价格下跌，该部门的平均产品价格下跌。

营业额减少了17亿令吉或19％，至74亿令吉，主要归因于产品价格和销量下降，但被马来西亚令吉兑美元走弱所部分抵销。 EBITDA减少12亿令吉或40％至18亿令吉，主要是由于压缩利润。税后盈利也减少11亿令吉或48％至11亿令吉。

肥料和甲醇：
需求疲软导致销量下降。该部门的平均产品价格较低，主要是甲醇与原油价格一起下降。该部门的收入减少了7.94亿令吉或14％，至47亿令吉，这主要是由于价格和销量下降，但被马来西亚令吉兑美元走弱所部分抵消。

由于收入减少，EBITDA减少3亿100万令吉或13％至20亿令吉。税后利润也较去年同期减少了4亿1千万令吉或23％，至14亿令吉，这是由于息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）降低，价格下跌导致合资企业的净利润份额降低以及税费增加。

3Q19 vs 2Q19：
集团的工厂利用率从上一季度的100％下降到81％，这主要是由于本季度进行的维护活动量增加。销量下降是由于产量下降。营业额减少了6.68亿令吉或15％，至37亿令吉，主要是由于销量下降。 EBITDA减少6.06亿令吉或40％至9.15亿令吉，这主要是由于营业额减少以及维护成本增加。税后盈利减少了5.54亿令吉或50％，至5.58亿令吉。

经营活动产生的净现金减少了4.7亿令吉或9％，至47亿令吉，主要是由于期内产生的较低利润所致。

前景：
烯烃和衍生物：
国油石化预计烯烃和衍生物领域的产品价格将在下一季度稳定下来。考虑到计划的维护后的供应有限。

肥料和甲醇：
国油石化预期由于终端产品需求疲弱和供应有限，因此化肥和甲醇产品价格也将稳定。
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

a) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM2.34 (dividend RM0.025) in 1 year 5 months 19 days, total return is 230.8%

b) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.75 (dividend RM0.04) in 1 year 6 months 30 days, total return is 125.2%

c) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM1.25 in 1 year 11 days, total return is 117.4%

d) MI (MI TECHNOVATION BERHAD), recommended on 2 Jun 19, initial price was RM1.67, rose to RM2.78 (adjusted)(dividend RM0.01) in 7 months 29 days, total return is 67.1%

e) PRLEXUS (PROLEXUS BHD), recommended on 25 Aug 19, initial price was RM0.455, rose to RM0.715 in 5 months 6 days, total return is 57.1%

f) PWROOT (POWER ROOT BHD), recommended on 7 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.59, rose to RM2.13 (dividends RM0.113) in 1 Year 3 months 24 days, total return is 41.1%

g) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.06 (dividend RM0.015) in 1 Year 1 month 15 days, total return is 34.4%

h) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.59 (dividend RM0.105) in 1 Year 2 months 13 days, total return is 33.5%

i) TSH (TSH RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 30 Jun 19, initial price was RM0.90, rose to RM1.19 in 7 months 1 day, total return is 32.2%

j) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.23 (dividend RM0.018) in 1 Year 1 month 8 days, total return is 29.3%

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这个分享纯属讨论以及领域的分析，买或卖自负。请Like和Share这个post。最终决定永远是你的，谢谢。

James Ng
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[PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD: Overall average products prices for the Group decreased from the corresponding quarter in tandem with declining crude oil price and softer market demand]

3Q19 vs 3Q18:
Overall average products prices for the Group decreased from the corresponding quarter in tandem with declining crude oil price and softer market demand. Revenue was lower by RM1.2 billion or 24% at RM3.7 billion mainly due to lower product prices, partially offset by higher sales volume and the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar. EBITDA decreased by RM713 million or 44% at RM915 million largely due to compressed margin. Profit after tax also reduced by RM664 million or 54% at RM558 million following lower EBITDA.

Olefins and Derivatives:
The segment recorded lower plant utilisation of 78% compared to 96% in the corresponding quarter primarily due to higher statutory turnaround activities. Sales volume was lower in line with lower production. Average product prices for the segment declined as crude oil prices decreased.

Revenue was lower by RM882 million or 28% at RM2.3 billion as a result of lower product prices and sales volume, partially offset by the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar. EBITDA for the segment decreased by RM549 million or 57% at RM416 million mainly due to compressed margin. Profit after tax was also lower by RM530 million or 70% at RM232 million largely due to lower EBITDA and net share of losses from associates as compared to net share of profits in the corresponding quarter primarily due to planned maintenance activities as well as lower prices.

Fertilisers and Methanol:
Average product prices for the segment declined as crude oil prices decreased and softer market demand. The segment’s revenue decreased by RM305 million or 18% at RM1.4 billion due to decline in product prices, partially offset by higher sales volume and the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar. EBITDA decreased by RM143 million or 21% at RM545 million in line with lower revenue. Consequently, profit after tax decreased by RM112 million or 26% at RM315 million.

YTD19 vs YTD18:
Overall average product prices were lower than corresponding period in tandem with lower crude oil price. Revenue was lower by RM2.4 billion or 16% at RM12.1 billion largely due to lower product prices partially offset by the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar.

EBITDA was lower by RM1.6 billion or 30% at RM3.7 billion mainly due to compressed margin. Profit after tax also decreased by RM1.4 billion or 36% at RM2.5 billion following lower EBITDA and net share of losses from joint ventures and associates as compared to net share of profits in the corresponding period.

Olefins and Derivatives:
Plant utilisation decreased from 95% in the corresponding period to 91% in the current period primarily due to higher level of statutory turnaround activities, resulting in lower production and sales volumes. Average product prices for the segment declined as crude oil prices decreased.

Revenue decreased by RM1.7 billion or 19% at RM7.4 billion largely attributable to lower product prices and sales volume, partially offset by the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar. EBITDA was lower by RM1.2 billion or 40% at RM1.8 billion mainly due to compressed margin. Profit after tax also decreased by RM1.1 billion or 48% at RM1.1 billion.

Fertilisers and Methanol:
Sales volume decreased following softer demand. Average product prices for the segment was lower mainly for methanol in tandem with lower crude oil price. The segment recorded lower revenue by RM794 million or 14% at RM4.7 billion mainly due to lower prices and sales volume, partially offset by the weakening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar.

EBITDA was lower by RM301 million or 13% at RM2.0 billion following lower revenue. Profit after tax also decreased from the corresponding period by RM410 million or 23% at RM1.4 billion due to lower EBITDA, lower net share of profits from a joint venture following lower prices, and higher tax expense.

3Q19 vs 2Q19:
The Group recorded lower plant utilisation at 81% from 100% in the preceding quarter, mainly due to statutory turnaround and higher level of maintenance activities undertaken in the current quarter. Sales volume was lower in line with lower production. Revenue decreased by RM668 million or 15% at RM3.7 billion largely due to lower sales volume. EBITDA was lower by RM606 million or 40% at RM915 million mainly due to lower revenue and higher maintenance costs during turnaround period. Profit after tax decreased by RM554 million or 50% at RM558 million.

Net cash generated from operating activities decreased by RM470 million or 9% at RM4.7 billion primarily contributed by the lower profit generated during the period.

Prospects:
Olefins and Derivatives:
The Group anticipates product prices for Olefins and Derivatives segment to stabilise in the coming quarter. This is in view of supply limitation following planned regional turnarounds.

Fertilisers and Methanol:
The Group expects that Fertiliser and Methanol product prices to also stabilise due to limited supply amidst soft demand from the end products.
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I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:

the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year

I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.

I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page.

This sharing is purely a discussion and analysis of the sector, buying or selling at your own risk. Please Like and Share this post. Final decision is always yours, thank you.

James Ng