Grudge

FBMKLCI- Cheapo mentality mirroring why Malaysia will never truly prosper.

ScrewDriver
Publish date: Thu, 23 Nov 2017, 12:09 PM

LOOK at the circled candles, every FBMKLCI attempt to rebound was quickly denied and the price level was immediately being sell down. Every rebound comes weak af, as if this is a strong bear market, albeit a slow grinding into the depth of abyssal.

Why is FBMKLCI in this situation, why is Malaysia financial market in general dying slowly, with everyone growing more frustrated as days come? 
The whole world financial market has been very bullish in 2017, while Malaysia only staged a mere few-months-show (Jan-May) when the whole world rallied?

TO add salt to the wound, the current bearish sentiment has erroded half of the gain of FBMKLCI made this year.
Current market correction lasted more than half year, meaning that for half year in 2017 our market is producing no meaningful return, this duration is too long, considering that 2015-2016 is already a 1 year plus sideway market. This is another six months of correction on top 1 year sideway which already happened in 2015-2016.

To make matter more frustrating: Malaysia has reported two consecutive quarter of accelerating GDP growth, but FBMKLCI seems to react oppositely to good economic data.

So it's a triple frustrations here:
First, regional peers rally alot this year, while Malaysia was stagnant;
Second, after 1 year of stagnant market in 2015-2016, Malaysia choose to undergo another six months of correction which errode half of the progress we made this year;
Third, with reported stellar GDP growth, Malaysia financial market is not responsive and even choose to react oppositely towards good economic data.


So why did these triple frustrations occured? I will present my part of logical explanation for current market movement (FBMKLCI).
First of all we must understand the majority of transaction in Malaysia is attributed to local funds and foreign funds. We as retailers only make up a small portion of our financial market.

Thus, it means to lift up the index, Foreign funds and local funds must work hand in hand only the index price and the whole market as general can be bid up. IF any of the party is playing sell side, the price level will remain stagnant or worse, dive down.

So why did FBMKLCI suffer six months long of correction the general sentiment of whole world was bullish?
There could be two probable reasons:
1. The economy in our nations itself was bearish, thats why there was lack of buying appetite to bid up the price level.
2. The selldown was purposely done, as funds still feeling unsatisfied after 1 year of accumulation (2015-2016) and wanted to collect more shares.

Since our economic performance measured as GDP growth was actually very good (in fact the Q3 growth was fastest in the last 3 years), we can rule out the first reasons.
So we are only left wil the second explanation, I believe its obvious to naked eyes FBMKLCI is still in uptrend if viewed using monthly chart.
So I'm suspecting that local funds and foreign funds  must be doing the behind curtain trick to purposely sell down FBMKLCI and build up the negative sentiments so that they can collect shares cheaply.
By intention, local funds were participating the shorting of market to create a strong frustration among retailers and the remaining few sideline foreign funds so that they will dump their shares out of disappointment.
Stand in the shoes of remaining few sideline foreign fund who was initialy bullish with FBMKLCI in 2017: everything seemed to align, recovering GDP growth, FBMKLCI seem like a good investment. Then puff, towards the end of 2017, your pupil dilate as you seeing FBMKLCI stagnant and even sell down, when the rest of the world was bullish and rally strongly. What will you feel? The other side of grass seems greener, you will be disposing your shares and your confidence on FBMKLCI and Malaysia.
Why? because you will start to view it as the worst performing market with little odd of playing a catch up to global market rally.

THIS all links back to my main topic, why Malaysia will never truly prosper?
The scenario mentioned above boils down to one serious problem deeply ingrained in MALAYSIA--- The Cheapo mentality. 
Local funds reflecting the cheapo mentality, selfishly wanting to squeeze every piece of shares from other people, they only want to buy cheaply, even if it's just few shares, as if every piece of shares count.
They don't care about the big picture of lifting up the price with sideline foreign funds, all they care about is only collect cheaply, and expect someone else to do the other half of equation of lifiting up the price level. They just want to sit on the benefit of someone else effort.
Even if all this means they are driving away other market participants (foreign, retailers), they still only care about collecting shares cheaply.
But they seemes to have forgotten that, when more market participants especially the foreign funds were driven away to invest in somewhere else, there will be less buying pressure to lift up the price level in future, and Malaysia will remain underperforming indefinitely. 
Extrapolating this observation onto every other aspects in MALAYSIA, can you see why MALAYSIA in a whole will never trully prosper, and most progress we have seen is an effect of global tide instead of our own effort?
Because everyone seems to be too self-centric, it is a nation of 'own benefit first', ignoring the big picture.
Everyone just wanted to sit on the fruit, without contributing to the greater cause, even if it's just small effort.

I believe this is a great reflection on the problem with our nations, something worth to ponder about.



 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments

pakatan_harapan2

Ini kali mesti ubah.

2017-11-23 12:14

pakatan_harapan2

EPF goreng DJIA not KLCI bec Dr M not in power?

2017-11-23 12:15

Muthusamy

tp klci 1800 before year end

2017-11-23 13:23

Save

Good analysis, agreed with reason 2. As Ringgit appreciated to 4.10 from 4.50 and higher KLCL from 1690 , foreign fund will take profit and exit before investment account close in Dec 2017. To prevent too much profit than reasonable profit to be taken out of country. Local fund managers need to follow the pace.  Bottom is near.

" TO BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDILY BUYING AND TO BUY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFULLY/FRUSTRATEDLY SELLING IF YOU SEE VALUE IN IT!! CHEERS

2017-11-23 14:15

ScrewDriver

Still got one more final downleg for fbmklci.

2017-11-23 14:58

Alex Foo

always talk special right, how can.

2017-11-23 15:05

apolloang

ini kalilah kena UBAH.....UBAH kepada PAS,semua boleh jadi Taliban.....hahaha

2017-11-23 15:06

ScrewDriver

https://invst.ly/5x1zv
Down legs come in multiples of three.

2017-11-23 15:07

ScrewDriver

Just be patient, final down leg is coming pretty soon as ultimate panic is setting in.

2017-11-23 15:10

Post a Comment