Highlights

MAA released Nov TIV sales of 52.2k (-2.1% yoy; -5.1% mom), affected by: 1) computer technical glitch for car registration by end Oct; 2) negative consumer sentiments on announced Budget 2014; and 3) anticipation of lower car pricing on rumoured NAP guidance (during KL International Motor Show 2013). YTD, TIV increased by +4.94% yoy (driven by Honda and Nissan). Passenger car segment increased by 5.09% yoy and commercial car segment increased by 3.85% yoy. We expect 2013 TIV to outpace HLIB’s TIV growth projection of +3.5% yoy for CY13.

Comment

Both national marques registered lower sales volume in Nov 2013, affected by the technical glitches, negative consumer sentiments and aggressive promotions by major foreign marques. Perodua (UMW and MBMR) sales was 14.9k units (+0.5% yoy; -3.9% mom) while Proton (DRB) was 9.3k units (-10.2% yoy; -28.3% mom).

Toyota (UMW) sales remained strong in Nov 2013 at 8.7k units (-9.3% yoy; +6.1% mom), on the back of strong new Vios contribution, which has over 16k orders by end Nov. Toyota is expected to launch new Altis, Camry Hybrid and another replacement model in 2014.

Nissan (TCM) sales rebounded to 4.8k units (+7.2% yoy; +19.4% mom) on aggressive sales promotions for year end. Among the new models expected in 2014 are new Sylphy and new Teana.

Similarly, Honda (DRB) has also registered stronger sales of 4.6k units (+30.8% yoy; +17.7% mom) on year end promotional campaigns. Honda has recently launched new Odyssey and previewed Accord Hybrid in KLIMS 2013.

Other marques reported combined sales of 10.0k units (-6.1% yoy; -4.8% mom), with market share of 19.1%. Ytd, the segment registered +3.3% sales growth, driven by Audi (DRB), BMW, Ford, Isuzu (DRB) and Mazda (BAuto).

The demand for luxury cars remained strong in Nov at 1.8k units or 3.5% market share. Ytd growth was driven by Audi (DRB), BMW and Land Rover.

Risks

• Slowdown in the Malaysian economy.
• Global automotive supply chain disruption.
• Sudden jump in fuel prices and interest rate.

Rating

Neutral

Positives –

• Potential export to regional market, i.e. Malaysia as a hub;
• Implementation of Energy Efficient Policy.

Negatives –

• Tightening of bank lending rules;
• Instability of global automotive supply chain;
• Depreciation of RM.

Valuation

Top Pick: DRB (TP: RM3.33) and MBM (TP: RM4.70) as we expect both to benefit from the expected NAP announcement in mid Jan 2014.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research- 18 Dec 2013