We recently hosted a site visit to Mazda Motor Corporation’s (MC) Hiroshima plant. Founded in 1920, MC is a multinational premier automaker, ranked 15th in global auto sales in 2018. With an attractive product line up and on resolving domestic issues related to pricing, we are upgrading Bermaz Auto (Bauto) to BUY (from Hold) with an unchanged TP of RM2.30 on valuation grounds. At 11x PER/ 6% yield for FY20E, Bauto’s valuations look compelling.

Impressive Mixed Production Line and a Highly Efficient Plant

Post visit, we are impressed that the Hiroshima plant adopts a mixed production line – the ability to produce multiple car models on the same assembly line. We gather that the current 569k units/annum production capacity has reached maximum capacity. We saw automation mostly in the stamping process area; the final assembly, however, is less automated and is mainly supported by est.10k employees. The Hiroshima plant manufactures most of the Mazda SUV models, while the sedans like Mazda 2, Mazda 3 and Mazda 6 are mainly manufactured at Hofu plant.

A New Mazda – Maturing Kodo Design Language, Coming to Malaysia

We also saw MC’s all-new Mazda CX-30 compact crossover SUV, which adopts Mazda’s latest Kodo design language. We learnt that demand for CX-30 in Japan is strong – est. 6k orders since the booking period started in end-Oct. Positioned as a new core product, the CX-30 will likely hit Malaysian shores by 1H20, with indicative pricing of RM143k-RM173k; Bauto targets to sell est. 1k unit/annum.

Growth Stemming From ASEAN; Malaysia Market Still Very Relevant

MC believes the ASEAN market has growth potential, in particular Vietnam, considering i) the growing young population, ii) growing economy and iii) rapid motorisation trend. That said, MC also highlighted the importance of the Malaysia auto market to the Group as it contributed a 5- year avg.13% of total ASEAN sales volume between 2014-2018.

Upgrading Bauto to BUY, Following Share-price Decline

Bauto’s 1M-share price has fallen by c.9%, as 2QFY20 quarterly results, slated for release on 10th Dec, is expected to be sequentially weaker due to the delay in car pricing approvals for its CX-8 model. We are comforted to know that the issue has been resolved, and will not affect Bauto’s 2HFY20 outlook. At 11x PER/ 6% yield for FY20E, we believe the negatives are priced in and valuations look attractive. Upgrading to BUY (from Hold) with an unchanged TP of RM2.30 based on 12x CY20E PER. Key downside risks: supply constraints on Mazda model and forex risks.

Source: Affin Hwang Research - 5 Dec 2019