Ifrit2020 - fundamental analysis

Is Orion still worthwhile to hold with the disappointed result? - ifrit2020

Chong JH
Publish date: Sat, 03 Mar 2018, 07:17 PM
Fundamental analysis of Bursa stock market
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Orion quarterly report has been announced on 26th Feb 2018. The quarter revenue of RM 3.758 mil and a profit of RM 0.525 mil were records. It was -57% QoQ but +200% YoY.
It was quite a disappointing result as the investors were expecting at least RM 1.5 mil profit due to the guarantee profit of RM 1.875 mil from ASAP. The share price was dropped from 15.5 cents to 13.5 cents (-13%) on the next trading day.
The reduced QoQ profit was due to higher operating expenses (higher cost of purchase and other dirrect cost)
Orion spent RM 142k for CAPEX in Q4 and received RM 165k interest from the deposits with bank. It is a clever way of resource allocation. Orion has deposited RM 2.14 mil to earn some extra profit instead of holding excessive cash of RM 5.5 mil with nothing. Current cash on hand was reduced to RM 3.29 mil and we believe it is more than enough to deal with its business cash flow.
 
(ROIC analysis pending. Will update soon)
 
Prospect
On top of the guarantee revenue and profit from ASAP, Orion had secured a PO from Greystone Capital with the estimated value of RM 3.816 mil over a period of 6 months. With the extra profit from this PO, Orion is expected to post a good profit (if there is no other surprises) in the coming quarterly report which shall be announced by end of May 2018.
 
Disclaimer: the information above is for sharing purpose, it does not contain buy or sell call. Trade at your own risk.

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 7 of 7 comments

Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes

No

2018-03-03 19:59

Chong Jiunn Hau

time will tell

2018-03-03 21:33

SaoQ

good analysis bro, but this counter like a goreng stock only

2018-03-04 02:35

lizi

"In the latest report (Q3 vs Q4 2017), the total trade receivable has increased by RM 500k but total trade payable has DECREASED by RM 1.24 mil. Is this the reason why Orion had a higher operation expenses?"

I think you have a wrong concept by linking operation expenses in income statement with receivable/payable in balance sheet.

expenses normally pair with sales recognized, not suka suka expenses more this quarter and expense less next quarter.

2018-03-04 09:43

lizi

payable decrease a lot just means they spend a lot cash this quarter. receivable increase means they collect less cash this quarter.

above has nothing to do with their profitabily, their profit margin.

2018-03-04 09:48

YouBuyIBuy

lizi, what is your thought on coming quarter and prospect on this counter ? thanks

2018-03-05 14:19

Chong Jiunn Hau

Tq lizi for pointing out. I should look at the change of working capital and FCF instead of confusing operation expenses with balance sheet.

2018-03-06 21:46

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