Glove companies is still in the early middle uptrend mode in term of profit and share price

The 2009 swine flu pandemic was an influenza pandemic that lasted for about 19 months, from January 2009 to August 2010, and was the second of two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus .  Vaccines (4 vaccines) approved by FDA in September 2009.The nasal mist version of the vaccine started shipping on 1 October 2009.

whereas Covid-19 start on December 2019- 1^st January 2020 – outbreak of Covid-19

(Vaccine may approved by FDA on Sept/Oct 2020??). St. Louis University launched clinical trials on an H1N1 vaccine in late July, and it received federal approval within months. The path to vaccine approval for COVID-19 is expected to take 12 to 18 months because it is a novel virus, leaving scientists to start from scratch.

COVID-19, the illness caused by a severe acute respiratory syndrome—known as SARS—coronavirus 2, is much more contagious and many times more deadly compare to H1N1. Thus, the usage of gloves will surge many more times higher compare to period of H1N1.

From the starting of H1N1 (1^st quarter)  to highest reporting quarter profit , it took 5 quarter to peak (from 19707 to 51473), x2.61 times . 31 March 2010-Supermx profit peak

Thus, it is obvious that as a value investor, we need to look at fundamental of the company rather than market noise. As long as the profit is sustainable and keep on increasing, the share price will eventually follow suit. The basic principle in value investing is Share price will keep on increasing with higher and higher reporting profit. 28/3/2010 Supermax reach 3.60 highest price. (before the highest profit quarter announce on 19/4/2010). Vaccine has introduced into the market by 1^st October 2009 actually. So when vaccine news on street or even introduce, Buy on every dips to earn big.  This is a great chance to buy on cheap sales when others are fearful. Because once the recording high profit is announced, people will rush in to buy again. Demand for gloves is still robust as long as Covid cases still increasing and ASP is on upcycle. Glove demand will not directly plunge as people are people are more health conscious , so demand of gloves still will increase  to a saturation point, then only the figures will reverse down.

Now is only 2nd  quarter of reporting increasing profit, at least another 3-4 quarters to go before the peak of reporting profit. Currently, no vaccine has been approved yet. Thus it is still early days to invest in glove stocks. There is still much room to rise for glove stocks. If Top glove can reach RM38, RM24 is relatively cheap. If  Supermax can reach RM28, RM18 is relatively cheap.

Top Glove profit peak at Q2 Feb 10, announce on 17 March 2010, Net profit 70526.

Top glove. On 28/3/2010, peak once at 3.50. On 11/7/2010, peak at 3.61.  From the analysis of Supermax and TopGlove on history of H1N1, although vaccines has been approved by FDA on September 2009, Topglov and Supermx still sustain their profit growth until Feb-March 2010. Share price of TopGlove peak in July 2010, whereas Supermax peak at march 2010. Because vaccines need time to introduce to the market, eg  undergo stringent check, mass production, transportation and costs, etc. So demand for gloves will still be in great demand even vaccine is approved for the initial stage.