Journey to Wealth

Banking - Business Loans In The Limelight

kiasutrader
Publish date: Wed, 01 Aug 2012, 02:06 PM

Business Loans In The Limelight
While  we  observed  disappointing  growth  trends  in  loans  disbursements  for properties and personal loans for credit cards, the industry loans growth for June is  supported  by  business  loans  in  anticipation  of  ETP-related  initiatives. Furthermore,  a  strengthened  asset  quality,  healthy  impaired  loans  ratios, increased  provisions  and  resilient  liquidity  levels  in  the  industry  will  help  spur further  support  for  financing  needs  to  the  ETP  projects.  Our  top  pick  remains CIMB (BUY, FV: RM8.53 - 2.3x P/BV, 16.7% ROE) and Maybank (BUY, FV: RM9.85 - 2.03x FY12 P/BV, 15.2% ROE).
Loan growth improves further. June 2012 loans growth inched up 10bps to 12.6% y-o-y as compared to 12.5% y-o-y growth in May2012. On an annualized basis, 1H2012 loans growth of 12.7% stands resilient, underpinned by loans growth for non-residential properties  (+22.6%),  residential  properties  (+13.6%),  purchase  of  securities  (+16.9%) and lending to the construction sector (+15.5%).
Loan application and loan approvals for properties sector weakened. Industry loan approvals  contracted  3.0%  y-o-y  in  June  compared  to  +18.2%  in  May.  Both  loan application  and  loans  approval  for  residential  and  non  residential  properties  exhibited negative growths for the first time this year. Loan application for residential registered y-o-y contraction of 12.2% while loan approvals declined 17.6%. Loan application for non residential registered 6.0% y-o-y contraction while loans approvals declined 7.4%.
Business  loans  picking  up, driven  by  ETP.  Approvals  for  business  loans  have  been largely  supported  by  construction  and  working  capital,  which  saw  a  m-o-m  increase  of +256.5% and +59.9% respectively in June, a drastic turn as both segments exhibited y-o-y  contractions  in  May.  Approval  rates  for  construction  and  working  capital  doubled those registered in the previous month at 42.2% and 60.1% respectively. We believe the application  of  bridging  loans  and  bond  issuances  are  already  gaining  on  the  ETP traction,  such  as  the  recent  RM8.0bn  financing  agreement  by  DanaInfra  Nasional  to finance the first phase of the MRT project.
Pockets of  buying  opportunities  '  focus  on  ETP  beneficiaries. We  are  of the  view that the overall sector performance may continue to lag, especially if net interest margin pressure  continues  to  persist  coupled  with  a  further  moderation  in  consumer  loans growth. As such, we continue to maintain our selective buying strategy on banks that will benefit  directly  from  the  eventual  financing  and  capital  market  related  growth  from further ETP growth traction  ' ie: CIMB, Maybank and RHB Cap.

ANKING OPERATING STATISTICS ' JUNE 2012
Loan growth improves 10bps to 12.6% in June 2012. June 2012 loans growth improved 10bps to 12.6% y-o-y  as  compared  to 12.5%  y-o-y  growth  in  May  2012.  On  an  annualized  basis,  1H2012  annualised  loans growth  of  12.7%  came  in  better  than  expected,  underpinned  by  loans  growth  for  non-residential  properties (+22.6%),  residential  properties  (+13.6%),  purchase  of  securities  (+16.9%)  and  lending  to  the  construction sector  (+15.5%).  However,  the  1H12  annualised  loans  growth  reflects  a  moderation  compared  with  1H2011 annualised loans growth of 14.5%.
Hire-purchase  up  6.1%  y-o-y.  Loan  growth  for  the  purchase  of  passenger  cars  grew  6.1%  y-o-y  in  June compared to 5.6% in May and 5.1% in April. In the most recent note by our automotive analyst, TIV bounced back  in  May, boosted by sales of Proton's new Preve and normalization in the processing of loans, which revved  up  sales  of  entry-level  cars  coupled  with  the  low  base  effect  as  vehicle  sales  bottomed  up  last  year during the same period due to supply chain disruptions caused by Japan's earthquake and Thailand's floods.
Credit  card  and  personal  use  continue  to  weaken  since  Dec  2011.  Loan  growth  for  credit  cards  (June: +4.6% y-o-y vs May: +5.0% y-o-y) and personal use (June: +13.3% vs May: +14.6%) witnessed slower growth compared to the previous month. The declining trend for credit cards extended from 12.5% in March 2011 to 4.6%  in  June  2012  since  BNM  issued  the  new  credit  card  guidelines  last  year.  To  recap,  BNM  revised  the minimum income  requirement  to apply  for a credit card  to RM24,000 per annum  from  RM18,000  per  annum previously  and applicants  or cardholders  who  earn  RM36,000  per annum or  less  would be  able  to  hold  only credit cards from a maximum of two issuers. This is in tandem with BNM's effort to promote prudent financial management  among credit card  users.  Consequently,  we  continue  to see losing  interests  in credit card  loan applications which exhibited a flat 0.1% m-o-m growth and a contraction 16.8% y-o-y in June. We expect loan growth for credit cards to remain uninterestingly flattish for the rest of the year as there are no catalysts that should propel the segment in our view.
Mortgage  loans  and  approval  starting  to  exhibit  diverging  patterns.  Loan  growth  for  mortgages  grew 13.6% y-o-y in June, on par with Apr-May2012 levels, though slightly less than the peak of 13.9% y-o-y growth levels  seen  in  Mar.  However,  the  issues  of  concern  instead  comes  in  the  form  of  mortgage  approvals  and applications which have both approached double-digit negative growths this year, with mortgage approval and application trend declining17.6% and 12.2% y-o-y respectively.
MIXED REVIEW ON LEADING LOANS INDICATORS
Loan  application  growth  mixed.  Loan  applications  grew  at  slightly  less  than  a  double-digit  pace  (June: +9.7% vsMay: +15.1%), underpinned by stronger loan applications for business segment which grew sharper (June: +19.0% vs May: +13.7%), however was affected by the household segment that experienced a slightly retreat y-o-y (June: -0.4%vs May: +16.5%). The change in pattern for  household segmentwas largely due to the  shrinkage  of  loan  applications  for  personal  use  (June:  -16.2%  vsMay:  +10.6%),and  credit  card  (June:  -16.8%  vsMay:  -3.2%),  despite  the  robust  growth  levels  of  loans  application  for securities  (June:  +84.2%  vs May:  +150.5%),  and  transport  vehicles  (June  +18.0%  vs  May:  +18.5%).  Loan  applications  for  the  business segment  on  the  other  hand  was  supported  by  encouraging  loan  applications  for  construction  (June:  +12.1% vsMay:  -3.2%),  working  capital  (June:  +15.9%  vsMay:  +21.5%)  and  other  purposes  (June:  +67.8%  vs  May: +20.2%).
Purchase of properties losing steam. Loans application for the purchase of residential properties shrunk in June, paring 12.2% y-o-y in June 2012 (vs May 2012 : +2.5%,  full year 2011's growth of 12.1% and full year 2010's growth of 27.6%). On a Dec-June 2012 comparison, residential property  application loans annualised growth of 16.9% pales in comparison with 6M 2011's 74.8% growth and 6M 2010's 31.5% growth.  On the other hand, loan application for purchase of non-residential properties seemed to fare slightly better albeit still in a negative y-o-y contraction since Apr this year (June: -6.0% vs May: -1.7%). The last time residential and non-residential  properties  both  experience  negative  y-o-y  contractions  in  terms  of  loan  applications  was  at January this year. The overall decline in loans application for properties combined is at 10.0% y-o-y. As total residential and non-residential properties contribute to 38.2% of total industry loans base, further moderation in properties loans application and approval is likely to impact overall loans growth despite a pickup in other loans segment. With many potential residential properties purchasers adopting a wait-and-see attitude prior to the General Elections we expect loans application for residential properties top remain subdued in the months ahead. 

Purchase of transport vehicles turned out to be the only performing household loan component.  Loan application  for  purchase  for  transportation  vehicles  continued  to  register  double-digit  18.0%  y-o-y  growth  in June vs 18.0% y-o-y growth in May, however it  experienced a slight m-o-m decline of 3.5%. We believe this trend  should  continue  in  the  second  half  of  2012  as  automotive  sales  are  expected  to  pick  up  from  the aftermath of 2011's Thai floods, aggressive promotions of new car models and the market adjusting to the new BNM lending guidelines.
Purchase of securities supported by high-profile equity deals. The sustained double-digit y-o-y growth for the loan application for purchase of securities could be attributed to the continued support of significantly large equity  deals  that  surfaced  this  year,  namely  the  initial  public  listings  of  Felda  Global  Ventures  and  Gas Malaysia.

Strong business loans application. Loan applications for business loans are strongly supported by positive double-digit  growths  exhibited  for  construction,  working  capital  and  other  purposes.  Amongst  the  business loan  components,  loan  applications  for  other  purposes  exhibited  the  strongest  y-o-y  growth  at  67.8%,  while loan applications for construction exhibited the strongest m-o-m growth at 129.6%. These can be attributed to a boost in ETP-related borrowings in the form of application for bridging loans and bond issuance to support the upcoming project implementations.

LOANS APPROVAL DROPPED
Loan approval growth declined due to properties and credit cards.  Loan approvals fell by 3.0% y-o-y in June  compared  to a +18.2% rise in May. Total absolute loans approval for the month of June'12 is still relatively  high  at  RM37.3bn  vs  the  average  monthly  absolute  loans  approval  quantum  of  RM32.7bn  for  Jan-May'12 and RM31.9bn in 2011. The main drawbacks for loan approval ofJune'12 were the sharp drop in loan approvals for residential properties (June: -17.6% vs May: +3.9%), non residential properties (June: -7.4% vs May: -5.8%), personal use (June: -16.0% vs May: +5.4%), and credit cards (June: -13.7% vs May: -20.1%).
Loan approvals for properties are in contractions since April. Similar to loan applications, loan approvals pertaining to residential and non-residential properties have both registered contraction figures of 17.6% y-o-y and  7.4%  y-o-y  respectively  in  June.  The  last  time  loan  approvals  for  both  residential  and  non  residential properties  suffered  y-o-y  contractions  was  in  the  month  of  April.  Likewise,  loan  approvals  growth  for  total residential and non residential properties combined have been either flat or in contraction for 2Q12, registering 14.2% y-o-y decline in June, 0.4% y-o-y growth in May and 13.0% y-o-y decline in April.


Business  loans  approval  supported  by  regained  interest  in  construction  and  working  capital.  Loan approval for business loans have been largely supported by construction and working capital which saw a m-o-m  increase  of  +256.5%  and  +59.9% respectively  in  June.  This  is  encouraging  as  loan  approval  for construction  and  working  capital  for  the  month  of  May  were  registered  at  declines  of  71.0%  and  19.4 respectively.  This  reaffirms  our  take  of  the  full  support  garnered  from the banks  to  finance  some of  the  ETP infrastructure initiatives such as the early phases of the MRT projects.


Approval  rates  still  in  a  declining  trend.  Industry  loan  approval  rates  had  fallen  slightly  to  48.9%  in  June 2012 vs 55.0% in May 2012. On a wider time frame, we note that industry approval rates for loans, defined as loans  approved  over  loans  applied,  have  been  on  a  slow  decline  for  the  past  few  years  from  63.3%  in  end-2009 to 55.6% in end-2011 and 43.3%inFeb 2012, which Feb was by far the month with the lowest approval rate  seen  in  2012.  This  is  driven  by  ongoing  government  regulations  to  cool  down  borrowing  applications  to key  household  sectors  and  imposition  of  stricter  approval  requirements,  with  the  most  recent  responsible lending guidelines impacted approvals for properties and credit cards.


Household  loans  approval  rates  largely  determined  by  residential  and  vehicles.  Household  loan approval rates increased to 53.8% in June 2012 vs 47.4% in May 2012. However the average household loan approval rate for 1H2012 of 49.8% is below the average approval rates of 53.8% and 54.5% for FY2011 and FY2010 respectively. While approval rates across all types of loans are general on a decline, loans approved for credit cards and securities were the notable segments that translate to approval rates above 60%. We also observed that the current approval rates for credit cards (63.0%) and securities (68.4%) are within the average approval rates registered in 2011.
A wide swing seen in loan approval rates among some business loan segments.  As of June 2012, the approval  rate  for  business  loans  in  general  was  registered  at  45.2%  vs  62.8%  in  May  2012.  This  drastic change in loan  approval  rate  is  due  to  the  wide  upswing  in the loan  approval  for other  purposes,  which  was registered  at merely  RM2.1bn  in  June  vs a  whooping  RM11.9bn in  May.  Due  to  this  wide  upswing, the loan approval rates for other purposes appeared drastically change from 138.6% in May to 19.2% in June. We think this upswing is in line with our take in a sense that during May 2012 a larger chunk of the loans were approved in line with the growth of SMEs and corporate businesses which stand to gain from the ETP growth traction. Even  for  the  month  of  June,  loan  approvals  for  construction  and  working  capital  are  both  picking  up  where loans  approved  for  other  purposes  have  left  off,  registering  double  the  approval  rates  at  42.2%  and  60.1% respectively.


LOAN DISBURSEMENT

Loan disbursement remained robust despite falling slightly from May. Loan disbursement grew 18.9% y-o-y  in  June  compared  to 35.4%  y-o-y  in  May,  despite  suffering  a  1.4%  m-o-m  contraction  from  May  figures. This  is  mainly  supported  by  loan  disbursement  for  the  business  segment  (June:  +23.3%  vs  May:  +56.0%). Loan disbursement  for  the  business  segment  was  bolstered  by  loan  disbursement  for  working  capital  (June: +32.4% vs May: +56.5%), non residential properties (June: +23.7% vs May: +12.5%) and construction (June: +1.8% vs May: -27.6%). Also, loan disbursement for the household segment rose y-o-y (June: +9.2% vs May: -3.8%), largely supported by loan disbursement to securities (June: +114.3% vs May: -36.4%), and passenger vehicles (June: +30.0% vs May: +26.1%).



LIQUIDITY

Deposits grew 12.6% y-o-y. Total system deposits grew +12.6% y-o-y in June compared to +13.1% y-o-y in May.  The only segment with a dip was lower deposits from the federal government (June:  -32.2% vs May: -13.8%),  however  this  is  rather insignificant  as  it  contributes  to  merely  1.2%  of  total  deposits.  Nonetheless, deposits  from  most  of  the  other  holders  posted  positive  growth  on  a  y-o-y  basis  '  state  government  (June: +10.8%  vs  May:  +15.5%),  statutory  authorities  (June:  +33.7%  vs  May:  +14.0%),  financial  institutions  (June: +3.2%  vs  May:  +3.2%),business  enterprises  (June:  +15.5% vs  May:  +17.4%)  and  individuals  (June:  +13.3% vs May: +13.6%).

Deposit growth converges with loans growth. We note that for the first time this year, deposit growth has now  converged  with  loans  growth  at  12.6%  each.  Prior  to  this,  deposit  growth  had  been  outpacing  loans growth from a year ago till now. With a the slower m-o-m growth in deposits vis-''-vis loan growth, the banking system's loan to deposit ratio (LDR) inched up to 82.1% in June compared to 81.5% in May.



ASSET QUALITY

Asset  quality  strengthened.  Total  gross  impaired loans  for  the  month of  June  2012  improved  7.1% m-o-m and  13.4%  y-o-y, while the loan loss coverage increased to a new high at 98.9% from Feb 2012's peak of 97.5%. Net impaired loans ratio improved 11bps to 1.53% as at end June 2012. Overall asset quality for most lending segment continues to reflect a m-o-m improvement apart from purchase of securities and credit cards which  were  at  very  minor  m-o-m  deterioration  at  0.9%  and  0.1%  respectively.  Residential  properties,  non-residential  properties  and  working  capital  registered  13.6%,  16.2%  and 19.8%  y-o-y  improvement  in  gross impaired  loans.  On  a  m-o-m  comparison,  business  loans  for  other  purposes  reported  the  strongest improvement  in  gross  impaired  loans  movement  (21.7%  m-o-m)  and  with  personal  loans  being  the  only  key lending segment reporting a m-o-m improvement in gross impaired loans 4.7% m-o-m).



Loans  impairment  from  purchase  of  securities  and  hire  purchase  rises.  Gross  impaired  loans  for purchase  of  securities  and  hire  purchase  registered  a  y-o-y  increase  of  87.0%  and  5.8%  respectively.  The exceptionally  strong  growth  in  lending  for  purchase  of  securities  coupled  with  the  increase  market  volatility may have contributed to the spike. However total industry lending exposure to purchase of securities remains relatively well contained at 4.7% of total industry loans base despite the strong growth of late.


Deposit rates fallen slightly. Average lending rate (ALR) for commercial banks remained at 5.60% from the preceding month. The slight drop is a persistent trend owing to the continuous pressure on mortgage Lending yields which are now hovering at BLR-2.45%. The 1-month fix deposit rates dipped 1bps from 2.91% in May to 2.90% in June while the 3-month fixed deposit rates increased 2bps to2.99%.



VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION: MAINTAIN NEUTRAL
While we do not expect a major melt down in asset quality or liquidity constraints, we think that  the earnings growth momentum may have slowed significantly, as reflected in  1Q12's uninspiring sequential loans growth and  net  interest  income  trend,  which  are  at  a  4-year  historical  low.  Aggregate  pre-provision  operating  profit dropped  2.4%  q-o-q  despite  a  14.4%  q-o-q  spike  in  non-interest  income,  which  was  largely  driven  by unsustainable and lumpy trading and investment gains. On the back of slower trading gains expected in 2Q12 coupled with continued pressure on NIMs, we believe that the overall profitability trend will meet expectations on  a  best-case  scenario.  The  bright  spot  that  could  help  mitigate  the  downside  risk  on  net  interest  income growth  lies  in  the  continued  improvement  in  provisions,  underpinned  by  lower  collective  assessments  and relatively benign system-wide NPLs. Our top pick remains CIMB (BUY, FV:RM8.53 - 2.3x P/BV, 16.7% ROE) and Maybank (BUY, FV: RM9.85 - 2.03x FY12 P/BV, 15.2% ROE).
RHB Capital remains by far the most undemanding relative to ROEs. Assuming that there is no major deterioration  in  book  value,  a  close  look  at  the  individual  banks' PBV and their respective  FY12  ROE forecasts indicate that RHB Capital is the most undervalued in terms of its current 1.33x FY12 PBV relative to its sustainable ROEs of 13.6%.

Source: OSK
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