Star's 9MFY12 earnings fell short of expectations, representing only 58%/62% of our/consensus full-year estimates. The company's 9M PATAMI sank by 19% y-o-y due to higher opex and financing costs incurred during the period. Hence, we are slashing our FY12/FY13 earnings forecasts by 21%/17% respectively. We downgrade the stock to SELL, with a lower FV of RM2.59 based on unchanged 11.7x FY13 PER. We are concern over its printing and new media segment as thecompany is facing a readership decline. Moreover, the newly acquired businesses are still in their gestation phase, further hurting its financial performance.
Missing expectations. Star's 9MFY12 earnings fell short of expectations, representing only 58%/62% of our/consensus full-year estimates. Essentially, its 9M PATAMI sank by 19% y-o-y due to higher opex and financing costs incurred during the period. Tepid growth in revenue (+3% y-o-y) also fuelled the bottom-line decline. On a q-o-q basis, the company's revenue/PATAMI had contracted by 15%/23% to RM256.4m/RM34.3m respectively. Other key takeaways include:
- Printing and new media segment posted revenue/PBT decline of 3%/15% y-o-y dueto weaker advertising income. Based on our recent adex compilation for October, Star's market share has continued to dwindle to 21.9% from 23.7%, a year ago.
- Radio broadcasting business registered a flat top-line but its PBT shrank by twofold y-o-y. We understand this is mainly due to the amortization of licence related to CapitalFM.
- The event, exhibition, interior and thematic (EEIT) division recorded a robust31%/50% y-o-y revenue/PBT growth. I.Star Ideas Factory SB contributed a handsome RM4m during the quarter under review, thanks to its Home & Lifestyle Exhibition held in Putra World Trade Centre and Penang in 3QFY12.
- Li TV Holdings booked-in a loss of RM4m YTD (+62% y-o-y) due to higherprogramme and marketing expense.
- As for the resignation of its MD, Mr Ho Kay Tat, we do not foresee any risk in theleadership transition as Star has a strong existing senior management team.
Downgrade to SELL, FV revised to RM2.59. We are slashing our FY12/FY13 earnings forecasts by 21%/17% respectively as we were overly generous with our prior margins assumptions. We are concern over Star's printing business as the company is facing a decline in English readership base. Also, the newly acquired businesses are still in their gestation phase, suggesting that its near term earnings may be dragged down by its diversification efforts. Thus, dividends payout may not be as attractive as before given the earnings pressure from various corners. We are downgrading the stock to SELL, with a revised FV of RM2.59 based on unchanged 11.7x FY13 PER.