Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 4 Sep 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 04 Sep 2014, 09:53 AM

Malaysia

Malaysia Among Top 20 Most Competitive Economies. Malaysia has been ranked 20th among 144 economies surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in its Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015. According to a statement Wednesday by the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti), Malaysia was previously ranked 24th out of 148 countries and is now among the top 20 most competitive economies. Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the nation remained the highest-ranked among developing Asian economies. "It is also the second-most competitive economy among the 24 countries moving from an efficiency-driven to innovation stage of development," he said. (The Star)

Asia Pacific

Japan's Abe: Ending Deflation Is New Cabinet's Top Priority. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday that policies to pull the country out of chronic deflation remain the new cabinet's top priority. "Our cabinet worked as one in delivering the three arrows, which created more jobs and raised wages. A positive economic cycle is kicking off," Abe told a news conference after reshuffling his cabinet on Wednesday. "The biggest challenge now is ... to revive regional sectors of Japan," he said. (Reuters)

China’s Services PMI Up Slightly In August. Activity in China’s services sector recovered slightly in August, a government survey showed yesterday, suggesting the sector remains relatively resilient compared to the manufacturing sector. The official non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.4 from a six-month low of 54.2 in July, said the National Bureau of Statistics. The official PMI showed rising new export orders in the services sector but a cooling property sector remained a drag. (Reuters)

Indian Order Books Slow In August. Indian services activity expanded at its weakest rate in three months in August as firms’ order books filled up at a slower pace, a business survey showed yesterday. The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, fell to 50.6 in August from 52.2 in July. A number above 50 denotes growth while anything below implies contraction. The new business sub-index fell to 51.9 from 52.6, a three-month low. Service firms were not alone in reporting lower order volumes. (Reuters)

Australia’s Economy Slows In Q2. Australia’s economy slowed last quarter as cautious consumers curbed spending and the country imported more, though the result was better than many had feared — and still ahead of most of its rich-world peers. Data showed gross domestic product rose 0.5% in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter when it expanded by a surprisingly strong 1.1%. In some ways the slowdown was self-inflicted as heavily-criticised government efforts to justify an unpopular budget of spending cuts and higher charges further sapped consumer sentiment and spending. (Reuters)

Americas

Strong Factory Orders, Auto Sales Brighten U.S. Economic Picture. New orders for U.S. factory goods posted a record gain in July and auto sales last month accelerated to their highest level in 8-1/2 years, offering further bullish signals for the economy. Orders excluding the volatile transportation category slipped 0.8% in July, but that drop followed a 1.4% increase the prior month, leaving intact the upbeat trend for manufacturing activity. Separately, industry research firm Autodata Corp said auto sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.53mil units in August, the highest level since January 2006 and above Wall Street's expectations of a 16.6mil-unit pace. (Reuters)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise In Latest Week. Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week as interest rates declined, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 0.2% in the week ended Aug. 29. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications rose 1.4%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 1.5%. (Reuters)

Canada Stays Neutral On 1% Policy Rate On Economic Slack. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz extended the country’s interest-rate pause to four years today and remained neutral on his next move, citing slack in the economy that will keep inflation in check. Policy makers held the benchmark rate on overnight loans between commercial banks at 1% and said the recent jump in exports must be sustained before it triggers the business investment needed to bring the economy to full capacity over the next two years. The decision from Ottawa was expected by all 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)

Brazil Keeps 11% Rate As Inflation Crimps Recession Response. Brazil kept borrowing costs unchanged for the third straight meeting as inflation persists above target and the economy struggles to emerge from recession one month before presidential elections. The bank’s board, led by its President Alexandre Tombini, today maintained the benchmark rate at 11%, as forecast by 53 of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. One analyst forecast a 25 basis-point cut. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Activity Slows Down. Eurozone business grew at the slowest rate this year in August as escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine subdued spending and investment, surveys showed yesterday. Signs of slower growth, coupled with firms cutting prices at an even faster rate, will add to pressure on the European Central Bank ahead of its monetary policy meeting today. Markit’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is based on surveys of thousands of companies across the region and is seen as a good gauge of growth, fell to an eight-month low of 52.5, well below July’s 53.8. That final reading was also weaker than a preliminary estimate of 52.8. (Reuters)

Euro Zone Retail Sales Slow Sharply In July. Euro zone retail sales slowed as expected in July, data showed on Wednesday, adding to worries about euro zone economic growth, which ground to a halt in the second quarter. The European Union's Statistics Office, Eurostat, said that the volume of retail sales in the 18 countries sharing the euro fell 0.4% month-on-month in July and rose 0.8% year-on-year. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.4% monthly fall and a 0.9% annual rise. Eurostat also lowered its estimate for retail sales growth in June to 0.3% month-on-month from the 0.4% reported previously and to 1.9% year-on-year from 2.4% previously. (Reuters)

UK Service Sector Growth 'Hits 10-Month High'. The UK services sector has recorded its fastest growth for almost a year, a survey suggests. The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) hit 60.5 in August, up from 59.1 in July. Any score above 50 indicates expansion. The UK PMI survey represented the sharpest rise in business activity in the service sector since October last year. Demand remained strong with marketing activity increasing as a result, it found. There were, however, concerns about future levels of business, leading to a fall in overall business confidence to a 15-month low. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Slips On Ukraine Cease-Fire News. The dollar generally gave up ground Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the outlines of a cease-fire agreement for eastern Ukraine has been reached. The euro firmed to $1.3150 ahead of a highly anticipated policy meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, from $1.3135 Tuesday. The U.S. currency declined against the yen after reaching an eight-month high, trading at 104.77 yen from ¥105.15 late Tuesday, while the Australian dollar traded at 93.47 cents Wednesday, up from 92.80 cents late Tuesday. The Canadian dollar traded at 91.86 cents Wednesday, from 91.50 cents late Tuesday. The pound traded at $1.6459, from $1.6471 Tuesday evening. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Gains More Than $2, Brent Rebounds From 16-Month Low. Crude oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday off multimonth lows as the prospect of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia combined with strong U.S. economic data raised demand expectations. U.S. crude settled up $2.66 at $95.54 a barrel, recapturing nearly all of the more than $3 it shed on Tuesday when it neared a nine-month low. Brent crude rose by $2.43 to settle at $102.77 at 11:41 a.m. EDT (1541 GMT) after settling at its lowest since May 1, 2013, on Tuesday. (Reuters)

Gold Rebounds From 2-1/2-Month Low On Ukraine Tensions. Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as lingering tensions over Ukraine and a weaker dollar prompted bargain hunting and short covering after bullion prices earlier fell to a 2-1/2-month low. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,269.80 an ounce by 2:06 p.m. EDT (1806 GMT), after having earlier hit $1,261.19 - its lowest since June 17. Among other metals, palladium was down 0.5% at $873.40 an ounce. Silver edged up 0.2% to $19.14 an ounce, and platinum climbed 0.3% to $1,406.20 an ounce. (Reuters)

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