Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015, 09:30 AM

Global

Ministers Meet for A Final TPP Push. Ministerial-level talks began in Hawaii Tuesday that could end with 12 nations concluding an agreement that would make it easier for corporations and investors to ship products, conduct business and buy assets across borders. The TPP involves Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the U.S. and Vietnam. Together, these economies represent about 40% of global trade. (Nikkei)

 

Malaysia

Malaysia Will Not Sign TPPA in Hawaii. Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said Malaysia will not sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) at the ministerial meeting in Hawaii. He said the government has taken a firm stand in the TPPA, in which the country's constitution, sovereignty and core policies such as government procurement, state--owned enterprises and the Bumiputera agenda will be safeguarded. Each TPPA member will need to go through its own domestic process before a final decision to sign and ratify the pact was made. The decision whether to sign or reject TPPA will be a collective Malaysian decision, he said. (Bernama)

Malaysia-Germany Trade Expected to Grow by 5%-7% More. Malaysia-Germany total trade, which touched a high of 10.9 billion last year, is expected to grow by between five and seven per cent more this year, says Malaysian-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MGCC). The total trade would hit the above 11 billion mark by 2016, driven by trade in manufactured products. He said German imports from Malaysia were the highest ever in 2014 at 6.1 billion while exports to this country were 14.8 billion. (Bernama)

 

Asia

Japan’s Growth to 2020 Seen by IMF Worse than Deflation Years. Despite progress made under Abenomics, Japan’s medium-term economic outlook is for growth that’s actually weaker than during the nation’s period of deflation, according to the IMF. The assessment reflects disappointing levels of business investment and slower-than-expected progress in reforming the labor market. The IMF’s medium-term estimate for economic growth in Japan was 0.65 in April. (Bloomberg)

Japan June Industrial Output Rises 0.8%. Japan's industrial output rose 0.8 percent in June, bouncing modestly from the prior month's big drop, government data showed, underlining subdued factory activity under the weight of inventories and sluggish exports. The month-on-month rise compared with economists' median estimate of a 0.3 percent increase and followed a 2.1 percent decline in May, data by the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry showed on Thursday. (Reuters)

Proposed 2016 Indonesia Budget to Lift Spending About 10%. Indonesia’s budget for 2016 will propose spending about 10% more than this year, but the bulk of expenditures will be for fixed items such as civil service salaries and interest payments. The proposed spending will be 2,095 trillion rupiah (US$155.8bil). The 2015 revised budget approved early this year called for spending 1,984 trillion rupiah. (Reuters)

Vietnam July Industrial Production up 11.3%. Vietnam's July index of industrial production (IIP) rose an estimated 11.3% from the same month last year, the General Statistics Office said on Wednesday. The country's IIP annual growth in the first half of 2015 was revised up to 9.7%, from the initial estimate of 9.6%. (Reuters)

China to Regulate Local Government Debt More Strictly. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said China will increase regulation over the ways local governments can raise debt as the economy still faces relatively large downward pressure. China will guide private investment into key and fragile sectors. China will also push forward with reforms on consumption tax and improve its resources tax system. China has been trying to deal with a mountain of local government debt. (Reuters)

South Korea June Department Store Sales Revised Down to Worst on Record. Sales at top South Korean department stores in June fell more than reported earlier to mark the worst drop on record, as an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) prompted consumers to cut spending. Sales at department store chains run by Hyundai Department Store, Lotte Shopping and Shinsegae Co fell 11.9% from a month earlier. Discount store sales in June dropped 10.2%. It was the steepest drop since an 18.3% decline in January. (Reuters)

 

Americas

Fed Says Economy Improving; September Rate Hike in View. The U.S. economy and job market continue to strengthen, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike when central bank policymakers next meet in September. Following their latest two-day policy meeting, Fed officials said they felt the economy had overcome a first-quarter slowdown and was "expanding moderately" despite a downturn in the energy sector and headwinds from overseas. They nodded in particular to the "solid job gains" seen in recent months. "On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggest that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year," the Fed said in a policy statement that kept rates unchanged. (Reuters)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Slip In June. The number of signed contracts to buy homes fell in June, as limited supplies of homes on the market are holding back possible sales growth. The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined 1.8 percent to 110.3 last month. Still, strong demand from would-be buyers has pushed the index up 8.2 percent during the past 12 months. (AP)

U.S. Can Stay Under Debt Ceiling Through at Least Late Oct. The U.S. federal government can stay below its legal limit on borrowing until at least late October and likely do so a little longer than that, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Wednesday. Lew said the Treasury would continue to refrain from issuing debt related to government worker pension funds in order to buy the government time before it breaches its $18 trillion debt cap. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Consumers Remain Optimistic. A closely-watched survey indicates German consumers remain optimistic but are showing signs of worry about the country's economic situation amid uncertainty about Greece's financial future. The GfK research group said Wednesday that its forward-looking consumer climate index remained unchanged at 10.1 points for August from July. But the survey of 2,000 consumers showed a significant drop in economic expectations, which fell by 6.5 points in July and have lost almost 20 points in two months. (AP)

UK July Retail Sales Growth Slows, Outlook Weakens. British annual retail sales growth slowed in July. The CBI distributive trades survey's retail sales balance fell for a second successive month, dropping to +21 in July from +29 in June, bucking economists' forecasts for a modest rise to +30. The outlook for sales in August was even gloomier, with the index dropping to a two-year low of +13 from +33. (Reuters)

Eurozone Founder Countries Diverging, Not Converging. The European Central Bank said on Wednesday that the euro zone's founding members had diverged economically, a "disappointing" outcome that goes against the premise that a common currency would let laggards slowly catch up. Central European countries have made significant gains but early adopters of the euro cemented their poor institutional frameworks, leaving them vulnerable to shocks, the ECB said, adding further evidence to its recent concession that the bloc is imperfect and vulnerable. (Reuters)

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rose in June Amid Housing Revival. U.K. mortgage approvals rose more than economists forecast in June in a sign of continued momentum in the housing market. Home-loan approvals climbed to 66,582 from an upwardly revised 64,826 in May. The BOE report also showed that net mortgage lending was 2.6 billion pounds in June, the most since July 2008. M4, a broad measure of money supply, fell 0.5% from the previous month and was 0.3% lower than a year earlier. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Rises as Fed's Jobs View Hints at Rate Hike. The dollar rose modestly against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve upgraded its view of the labor market, supporting some traders' opinion that it would raise benchmark U.S. interest rates, perhaps as early as September. The dollar was last up 0.3% at 123.91 yen, while the euro was down 0.7% at $1.0983. The dollar index was 0.4% higher on the day at 97.159. The Australian dollar was last down 0.6% at $0.7291 while the New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% at $0.6670. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Rises From Near 6-month Lows after Big U.S. Stock Drawdown. Oil settled higher on Wednesday, recovering from multi-month lows, after U.S. government data showed a surprisingly large crude stockpile draw that signaled the market may have been wrong in predicting slumping demand for energy. The U.S Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. gasoline demand was up 6.2% from the year-ago period, averaging 9.51 million barrels per day over the past four weeks. Brent settled up 8 cents, or 0.2%, at $53.38 a barrel, after a session high at $54.33. U.S. crude finished up 81 cents, or 1.7%, at $48.79. Its intraday peak was $49.52. (Reuters)

Gold Inches Up after Fed Leaves Door Open to Sept Rate Hike. Gold moved up a shade on Wednesday, but remained near last week's 5.5-year low, after a U.S. Federal Reserve statement raised uncertainty about the timing of a possible interest rate hike, leaving the door open for September. Spot gold was up 0.14% at $1,096.50 an ounce at 1841 GMT. Spot palladium was down 0.7% at $615 an ounce and platinum was down 0.2% at $983 an ounce, both not far above multi-year lows. Silver was up 0.8% at $14.79 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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