Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 31 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015, 10:23 AM

Global

Pacific Trading Partners Stuck on Medical Monopoly Periods. Pacific trading partners are deadlocked over intellectual property protections, including monopoly periods for next-generation drugs, Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari said. He saw no sign of the United States backing down on a demand to protect for 12 years data used to develop biologic drugs, which are made from living cells. Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb has said he sees no legitimate reason to extend past five years. Many are concerned that longer monopoly periods will push up the cost of state-subsidized medicines and delay the introduction of cheaper alternatives. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Bank Negara Grips Ringgit Tightly as Troubles Mount. Bank Negara Malaysia has taken an iron-fisted approach, barely allowing the ringgit to move since early July as investors became increasingly unnerved by a deepening financial scandal. Since early July, even as foreign investors pulled out of Malaysian markets and risk metrics spiked, the ringgit has remained close to 3.8 to the dollar. That is the same level the ringgit was pegged at during the Asian financial crisis. Currency reserves fell US$5 billion in the two weeks to July 5 as the central bank defended the ringgit and analysts estimate a lot more could have been spent. (Reuters)

 

Asia

Japan's Inflation Edges Up as Households Shut Their Wallets. The Bank of Japan's efforts to reach its 2% inflation target didn't get much of a boost from the latest data, with the country's core consumer price index for June barely budged and as households unexpectedly snapped their wallets shut. Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, rose 0.1% on-year in June, a tad above the 0.0% forecast. The "core-core" CPI, which excludes both food and energy prices, rose 0.6% from a year earlier. But household spending unexpectedly fell 2.0% on-year in June, sharply underperforming expectations. (CNBC)

BOJ's Ishida Warns of Stimulus Costs, Future Imbalances. The Bank of Japan must be vigilant to the risk its massive stimulus program could overheat the economy and create financial imbalances in the long run, board member Koji Ishida said on Thursday. He saw no immediate signs the central bank's aggressive money printing was sowing the seeds of an asset bubble. He said the BOJ must look at various indicators in measuring inflation including one gauge that strips away the effect of housing costs, which have kept falling. Measured by that index, annual consumer inflation hit 1.5% in May, near the BOJ's target. (Reuters)

Singapore's Unemployment Rate up 2% Amid Softer Economy. Singapore's employment grew at a moderate pace, while unemployment edged up slightly amid softer economic conditions. A report released by the Manpower Research and Statistics Department showed the unemployment rate edging up after trending downwards for the past four quarters. The overall seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 2.0% in June from 1.8% in March. Unemployment among residents rose to 2.8 % from 2.5%. (Bernama)

 

USA

U.S. GDP Rises 2.3% in Second Quarter. The world’s largest economy expanded at a faster pace in the second quarter. GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, and a revised 0.6% advance in the first quarter wiped out a previously reported contraction. The median forecast of 80 economists called for a 2.5% gain. Consumer spending climbed at a 2.9% annualized rate following a 1.8% advance at the start of the year. The GDP report also showed price pressures picked up. A measure of inflation, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, climbed at a 1.8% annualized pace. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Jobless Claims Increase. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased last week, but remained near cycle lows in a sign that the jobs market was gaining steam. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended July 25. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 3,750 to 274,750 last week. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone Businesses Unruffled by Greek Crisis. Eurozone businesses were untroubled by the threat of a Greek departure from the Eurozone in July, becoming more upbeat about their prospects. A European Commission survey released Thursday recorded a surprising strengthening of confidence across a range of businesses and in most of the major Eurozone economies. The commission’s headline Economic Sentiment Indicator--which aggregates the business and consumer measures--rose to 104.0 from 103.5, reaching its highest level since July. (WSJ)

Spain's Economy Motors on at Fastest Pace since Before Financial Crisis. Spain's economy grew at its fastest rate since 2007 in the second quarter. Since Spain emerged from a prolonged downturn in mid-2013, economic growth has been driven by a steady rise in consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund expects Spain's economy to grow 3.1% this year, the fastest rate in the euro zone. Low inflation extended into July and retail sales rose for an 11th straight month in June, separate data showed. (Reuters)

Irish January to March GDP Rises 1.4%. Ireland's economy grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, in a recovery that is forecast to make it the fastest-growing economy in Europe for the second year running in 2015. Ireland's economy expanded by 5.2% last year, revised up on Thursday from 4.8% previously, its highest growth rate since 2007 and the best performance in the European Union. In the first quarter, exports rose 2.3% quarter-on-quarter and personal consumption was up 1.2% compared with the final three months of 2014. (Reuters)

German Unemployment Rises but Economy Seen Powering Ahead. German unemployment unexpectedly rose in July and posted its biggest increase since May last year. The Federal Labour Office reported that the seasonally adjusted unemployment total rose by 9,000 to 2.799 million. Al poll of economists had pointed to a fall of 5,000. The jobless rate remained at 6.4% for the fourth straight month. (Reuters)

German Annual Inflation Holds Steady in July. German annual inflation harmonized to compare with other European countries remained stable at 0.1% in July. That was the joint-weakest reading in Europe's largest economy since February. It came in well below the European Central Bank's inflation target for the broader euro zone of just below 2% over the medium term. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Climbs as U.S. Growth Supports Rate-Hike View. The dollar rose to a one-week high against a basket of currencies on Thursday as news of faster U.S. economic growth in the second quarter supported expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as September. The dollar index was up 0.5% at 97.496 after touching 97.773, its highest in a week. The greenback rose to a seven-week peak of 124.58 yen before retreating to 124.12 yen, up 0.2% on the day. The euro shed 0.5% to $1.0925 after hitting a one-week low at $1.0894. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Dips as Robust Dollar Offsets Stock Drawdown. Crude futures settled down on Thursday, pressured by a rally in the dollar which countered bullish sentiment from a drawdown in U.S. stockpiles that was much steeper than expected. Brent settled down 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $53.31 a barrel. U.S. crude closed lower by 27 cents, or 0.6%, at $48.52. Oil has slid more than $10 a barrel over the past month. Global benchmark Brent neared a six-month trough earlier this week and U.S. futures neared four-month lows, pressured by a global glut, a resurgent dollar and China's tumbling stock market. (Reuters)

Gold Falls 1% as Dollar Rises on Fed Rate Hike Expectations. Gold fell 1% on Thursday to a near a 5.5-year low as the dollar rose after data showed the U.S. economy improved in the second quarter, supporting views that the Federal Reserve would lift rates by year-end. Spot gold dropped as much as 1.3% to a session low of $1,081.85 an ounce in earlier trading, not far from its cheapest since February 2010. It was down 0.7% at $1,089.11 by 1807 GMT. Spot platinum was up 0.1% at $983.24 an ounce, within reach of a 6.5-year low. Palladium was up 0.2% at $617.25 an ounce, and silver dropped 0.1% to $14.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

 

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