Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 5 Aug 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 05 Aug 2015, 09:41 AM

Global

IMF Review Recommends Delaying Currency Basket Adoption of Yuan. An IMF staff report said the IMF should put off any move to add the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights currency basket until September 2016. The report said the implementation of any formal decision to add the yuan to a basket of currencies comprising dollars, euros, pounds and yen should be delayed so as not to disrupt financial market trading on the first day of 2016. It recognized progress made by Beijing, noting that it was already the fifth most-used currency for international trade. (Reuters)

 

Asia-Pacific

Rajan Holds India Rate, Rebuffing Pressure From Government. Indian central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan kept interest rates unchanged, rebuffing pressure from the Finance Ministry to reduce borrowing costs that are among the highest in Asia. Rajan left the benchmark repurchase rate at 7.25%. The move was predicted by 39 of 42 economists in a survey. Rajan wants to ensure his inflation target of 6% by January isn’t at risk from surging food prices, a poor monsoon and a possible increase in U.S. interest rates next month. (Bloomberg)

Australia's Central Bank Holds Rates. Australia's central bank held interest rates at record lows on Tuesday in a widely expected decision, but surprised markets by toning down calls for a further fall in the local dollar. Investors reacted by lengthening the odds of a further cut in the 2% cash rate with a 60% chance of a move by December, from 72% earlier in the day. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has recently sounded reluctant to cut again as he balances the need to underpin a sluggish economy against the risk of over stimulating an already hot housing market. (Reuters)

Australia Retail Sales Rise by More Than Expected. Australian retail sales rose by 0.7% in June from May, the biggest month-to-month increase since February. Economists had been expecting a rise of 0.5% in June from May. Retail sales for May were also revised higher, to an increase of 0.4% from April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The previously reported number was a 0.3% gain. Retail sales in the second quarter rose by 0.8%. (WSJ)

ASEAN-India Total Trade at US$77 Billion from 2014 to Date. Trade relations between ASEAN and India have grown significantly with total trade rising to U$77 billion from 2014 to date from US$44 billion during the 2009-2010 period. The ASEAN-Indian Trade in Goods Agreement signed in 2010 had definitely helped in bringing about a steep spike in trade volume. Despite recording an average annual growth rate of 12%, the figure was low when compared with trade figures of some other ASEAN's dialogue partners such as China, the United States and New Zealand. (Bernama)

 

USA

U.S. Factory Orders Advance 1.8% in June. Orders to U.S. factories increased in June, but the gains weren't robust enough to suggest that the sluggish manufacturing sector is mounting a significant turnaround. Factory orders advanced 1.8% in the month. The jump, however, was fueled by a surge in demand for commercial aircraft, a volatile sector that can swing widely from month to month. A key category that serves as a proxy for business investment plans edged up 0.7% after declines in April and June. Demand for durable goods increased 3.4% in June. (AP)

 

Europe

U.K. House Prices Rise as Nationwide Sees Signs of Stabilization. U.K. home values rose in July, according to Nationwide Building Society, which said the market may be stabilizing after a year of cooling price growth. Values rose 0.4% from June to an average 195,621 pounds ($305,500). The annual pace of growth picked up to 3.5% in July from 3.3%, which was the slowest in two years. Along with a shortage of housing supply, an improving economy and record-low mortgage costs are supporting the property market. (Bloomberg)

S&P Lowers Outlook for EU After Greece Crisis. Standard & Poor’s has changed the outlook for the European Union from stable to negative after the bloc’s support for Greece and following Britain’s decision to vote on leaving the EU, S&P reported Monday. The decision means the US ratings agency could lower its grade of the European Union, now at AA+, in the next two years. S&P said EU’s repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU member was one reason behind the revised outlook. S&P’s concern over Britain is due to its outsized role in the 28-member EU. (AFP)

 

Currencies

Dollar Rises on Atlanta Fed Chief's Rate-Hike View. The dollar rose on Tuesday as a top U.S. Federal Reserve official voiced support for an interest rate increase in September. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it would take "significant deterioration" in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in September. Lockhart is a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee. He has a reputation as a centrist and has sided with Fed Chair Janet Yellen on her policy stance. The dollar index was up 0.5% at 97.957. The greenback rose 0.3% to 124.33 Japanese yen, while the euro fell 0.6% at $1.0883. The Aussie was up 1.3% at $0.7382, recovering further from a six-year trough of $0.7234 set last week. (Reuters)

MIER Expects Ringgit to Rebound by Year-End. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) expects the ringgit to rebound by year-end in line with the World Economic Forum's (WEF) 2015 crude oil price forecast of between US$58-US$59. Bank Negara Malaysia's intervention to help prop up the ringgit value is not the best solution for the currency, he said, adding that, "If we want to cure the disease we have to address this issue not just the symptom." The ringgit closed on Tuesday at 3.8523 to the US dollar. (Bernama)

 

Commodities

Oil Climbs From Multi-Month Lows. Global crude prices rose from multi-month lows on Tuesday, helped by a stock market rally in No. 2 oil consumer China. Brent settled up 47 cents, or 1%, at $49.99 a barrel. U.S. crude finished up 57 cents, or 1.3%, at $45.74. However, analyst said abundant supply and a weak demand outlook make crude's rebound unlikely to hold. (Reuters)

Gold Pressured by Rising Dollar. Gold retreated from intraday highs on Tuesday as the dollar moved higher and a voting member of the U.S. Federal Reserve said he is ready to support an interest rate increase in September. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,087.61 an ounce at 1910 GMT. Platinum dipped to its lowest since February 2009 at $940.50 an ounce, while palladium hit nearly a three-year low of $586.33 an ounce. Spot silver rose 0.3% to $14.52 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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