Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 6 Aug 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 06 Aug 2015, 09:13 AM

Global

Global Business Growth Accelerated in July. Global business growth accelerated last month as new orders picked up, allowing firms to build up a backlog of work. JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output Index, produced with Markit, rose to 53.4 in July from June's 53.1. It has been above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since October 2012. An index covering new orders climbed to a three-month high of 54.3 while the backlogs of work measure moved back above the breakeven 50 level. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Surprise Boost to Exports in June from E&E Gains. Malaysian exports rose unexpectedly in June, gaining the most in 12-months. A 13.5% YoY increase in the electrical & electronic (E&E) category and a cheaper ringgit helped lift total exports by 5.0% YoY. This was well above consensus (-2.2%) and house (-3.7%) expectations. The overall picture for trade in June was also a positive one with total trade up 1.9% YoY after falling by 6.9% in May. The trade balance increased to a healthy RM8.0b, the highest in five months, as imports declined 1.5% YoY in the face of fast-rising exports. (See Economic Viewpoint)

1MDB Special Task Force Disbanded. The high-level government task force investigating 1MDB has been disbanded, with the three main agencies now ordered to work independently, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) said. Since former Attorney General Tan Sri Gani Patail’s removal from office on July 27, the position of task force made up of the A-G, MACC, Bank Negara and police has been in question with critics questioning if it was still in force. In the past week, members of the task force were hauled up for questioning by Bukit Aman under Section 124 of the Penal Code. (The Malaysian Insider)

 

Asia

Indonesia's GDP Grows 4.67% in Q2, Slowest Since 2009. Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter dropped to its slowest since 2009. South-East Asia's largest economy expanded 4.67% in April-June compared with a year earlier, below the revised estimate of 4.72% growth for the January-March quarter. Falling commodity prices and the government's strict regulation on shipments of ore weighed on the mining sector. Consumption, investment and imports were all weaker. The government spent less than 40% of its budget up through June, with capital expenditure particularly weak. (Reuters)

Thai Central Bank Says Growth Forecast to be Cut Again. The Bank of Thailand said its 2015 growth forecast of 3.0% is being lowered again, due to poor exports, but said it won't give the new one until Sept. 25. The economy continued to recover gradually in the second quarter, and is expected to maintain the similar pace of recovery for the rest of the year, but downside risks increased from a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a domestic drought, it added. The central bank expects the Fed to raise rates in September but was confident the move would not cause big risks for Thai financial markets, Mathee Supapongse, secretary of the MPC, told a briefing. The MPC earlier voted to maintain the benchmark policy rate at 1.50%, as expected. (Reuters)

China July Services Activity Quickens to 11-Month High. Activity in China's services sector expanded at its fastest pace in 11 months in July, thanks to stronger new business. The services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 53.8 from June's 51.8. The July level is the highest since August 2014 and marks a 12th straight month of expansion. A sub-index measuring new business jumped to 54.0 from June's 52.2 while the employment sub-index also edged up, indicating increased hiring on stronger new businesses. (Reuters) 

Japan July PMI Survey Shows Services Expansion. Japanese services sector activity expanded in July at a slightly slower pace than the previous month, suggesting only a moderate rebound in the economy. The Japan Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.2 in July from 51.8 in June. The index for new business rose to 53.2 from 52.6 to indicate the fastest growth since May 2013. (Reuters)

 

USA

Trade Gap Widens 7% in June as Imports Jump. The U.S. trade deficit increased in June as solid consumer spending pulled in more imports, while the strong dollar restrained exports. The trade gap jumped 7% to $43.8 billion in June, up from $40.9 billion in May. Imports increased 1.2% to $232.4 billion, while exports edged lower to $188.6 billion from $188.7 billion. U.S. manufacturers have been held back this year by the strong dollar. Even so, the deficit narrowed in the second quarter compared with the first, boosting the economy. (AP)

Private Sector Adds 185,000 Jobs in July. U.S. private employers hired 185,000 workers in July, which was the smallest increase since April and reduced expectations of a strong jobs reading in the government's payrolls report due Friday, according to a payrolls processor on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 215,000 private jobs in July. June private payroll gains in June were revised down to 229,000 from an originally reported 237,000 increase. (Reuters)

Growth at US Services Firms Surges to Record in July. Business at U.S. services companies surged in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. Its services index rose to 60.3 last month, highest since the index was created in 2008 and up from 56 in June. Its measure of business activity for services firms rose to 64.9 from 61.5 in June. New orders and employment were also up strongly. Export orders also rose at a faster pace, despite a strong dollar. Fifteen of 18 services industries reported growth. (AP)

 

Europe

Eurozone's July PMI Exceeds Expectations. Eurozone business growth accelerated at the end of last month as companies largely put the Greek debt crisis behind them. With conditions and sentiment improving in the bloc after the deal, Markit's July final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) beat an earlier estimate of 53.7, settling at 53.9. The composite PMI pointed to third-quarter expansion of 0.4%. A PMI covering the services sector came in at 54.0, above the flash 53.8. (Reuters)

Germany's Private Sector Expands at Moderate Pace in July. Business activity in Germany's private sector continued to grow in July as new orders flowed in faster. Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index, which tracks activity in the manufacturing and services sectors that together account for more than two-thirds of the economy, held steady at 53.7 in July. Bright spots included new business piling in more quickly than in June. (Reuters)

U.K. July Services Growth Eases as BOE Debates Rate Increase. U.K. services growth eased in July. An index of services, the largest part of the economy, fell to 57.4 from 58.5 in June, Markit Economics said on Wednesday. That’s below the median forecast of economists for a reading of 58. The report comes as some policy makers are expected to push for an increase in borrowing costs. Total new business rose for a 31st month in July, though employment growth cooled. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Steady as U.S. Services Data Supports Rate-Hike View. The dollar traded little changed against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as data showed the U.S. services sector expanded at its fastest pace in 10 years. The dollar index climbed to a 3.5-month peak of 98.128 in overseas trading in the wake of the Lockhart interview. It was little changed on the day at 97.931. The dollar hit a two-month peak against the yen at 125.015 yen before retreating to 124.880 yen, up 0.4% from Tuesday. The euro bounced in a tight trading range, last up 0.2% at $1.08990. (Reuters)

Weakest Ringgit in 17 Years Unmoved by Surprise Exports Rebound. A surprise rebound in Malaysia’s exports failed to revive the ringgit, which fell to a 17-year low. The ringgit is Asia’s worst performer this year. It declined to 3.8787, the lowest since September 1998, before the trade numbers were released at noon on Wednesday. The ringgit has lost 9.8% against the US dollar in 2015. (Bloomberg)

 

Commodities

Oil Hits Multi-Month Lows on U.S. Gasoline Build. Oil prices hit multi-month lows on Wednesday after a surge in gasoline stockpiles in the United States as the summer season, the country's biggest demand period for motor fuels, neared its end. Futures of Brent, the global oil benchmark, hit a six-month bottom while that of U.S. crude touched a 4.5-month trough. U.S. crude futures settled down 59 cents, or 1.3%, at $45.15 a barrel, hitting a low of $44.83. Futures of Brent closed 40 cents lower at $49.59 a barrel, after falling to a January low of $49.02. U.S. crude futures fell 21% in July and Brent lost 18% as the global oil oversupply grew. (Reuters)

Gold Under Pressure after U.S. Data, Rate Rise in Focus. Gold eased on Wednesday, hovering above the recent 5.5- year low on earlier pressure from the dollar as U.S. services sector data revived expectations of a U.S. interest rate rise as early as September. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,085.35 an ounce by 1837 GMT, while U.S. gold for delivery in December settled down 0.5%, at $1,085.60 an ounce. Spot platinum fell 0.6% to $946 an ounce, close to $940.50 on Tuesday, its lowest since February 2009. Palladium was up 0.1% at $593. Silver was steady at $14.58 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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