FY19 CNL of RM64m expanded, compared to CNL of RM31m in FY18, is deemed within expectations of both our/consensus estimated CNL of RM60.9m. Malaysian operation has returned to black with the on-going rationalization strategy and China operation recorded higher operating efficiencies (+40%). At the current pace, PARKSON is expected to be in the black with FY20E CNP of RM8.5m and we introduce FY21E CNP, which is higher by 16%. Upgrade to OP from UP with a higher TP of RM0.270 (from RM0.240) based on the revised SoP.

FY19 within expectations. FY19 CNL of RM64m expanded, compared to CNL of RM31m in FY18, is deemed within expectations of both our/consensus full-year estimate of RM60.9m each. No dividend was declared, as expected.

YoY, FY19 core losses expanded to RM64m compared to core losses of RM31m in FY18 mainly due to higher finance costs and higher tax expenses. This was despite marginally increase in revenue (+1.3%) due to improved SSS growth from: (i) Malaysia (+5.1% vs. FY18 of -1.2%) which benefited from the spending spree during the zero-rated tax holiday as well as strong festivities sales, and (ii) Indonesia (-1.4% vs. FY18 of -3.8%) mainly driven by the targeted promotions and increasing house brands’ contribution, which more than offset the lower SSS growth in China and Vietnam/Myanmar operations. China’s FY19 SSS growth was lower at -2.2% vs. +0.5% in FY18 mainly due to lower direct sales arising from stores closures in 2018 but improving operating revenue was seen from strong sales performance in the Cosmetics & Accessories category (51% of merchandise sales). On the other hand, Vietnam’s SSS growth rates (-20.5% vs. FY18 of -8.3%) sunk deeper due to intense competition, especially with the launch of Vincom Center Landmark 81 Mall. Nevertheless, 53%-owned Parkson China recorded higher operating efficiencies to report an operating profit of RM155m (+40%) and Malaysia operation recorded operating profit of RM14m from operating loss of RM47m, which more than offset other region’s losses to record EBIT of RM100m.

QoQ, 4Q19 returned to the black with core PATAMI of RM12.6m compared to core losses of RM6.5m in 3Q19 from improved operating efficiencies and stores productivity, as the group recorded higher operating profit of RM55m (+2.6%), mainly contributed by China and Malaysia operation following the closure of underperforming stores (Malaysian segment saw the closure of Parkson stores in Suria KLCC and Puchong Square M Mall in the quarter, and China closed 3 stores YTD). These more than mitigated lower turnover (-13%) due to higher base in the previous quarter from seasonally stronger consumer spending during the CNY festivities and extended holiday but cushioned by Hari Raya Aidilfitri sales in Indonesia (+42%).

Outlook. We like Parkson for the following; (i) its strategy of optimising its retail format, expanding its product and services offerings, which is paying off, (ii) it is minimising stores losses via optimising store effectiveness and efficiency, which are bearing fruits, and (iii) China operation’s improvement to gain further momentum. As of June 2019, the group’s department stores network comprises 44 stores in China and 61 stores in South-East Asia, including Malaysia (42 stores), Vietnam (4 stores), and Indonesia (15 stores). Note that, Parkson has ceased its Myanmar operation with the closure of its only store in 2Q19.

Upgrade to OP from UP with a higher TP of RM0.270 (from RM0.240) based on the revised Sum-of-Parts (SoP) (implied PER of 34x based on FY20E EPS, above regional PER of 27x). The share price has plunged 20% since our UP call and we believe most negatives have been priced in. Key risks to our call are: (i) higher-than-expected losses in the South-East Asia region, and (ii) slower-than-expected China operation.

Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Aug 2019