● Exports plunged in April (-7.0%; consensus: -2.7%; Mar: -0.4%), as COVID-19 hit global demand and commodity prices

- MoM: growth tumbled to a 9-month low (-13.3%; Mar: 0.1%) to USD12.2b.

● The weaker export performance was attributable to a broad-based slowdown

- Oil & gas (-17.7%; Mar: -42.7%): fell for the ninth straight month, albeit lesser than the preceding month on sluggish O&G manufacturing exports (-17.6%; Mar: -24.1%) and mining (-17.7%; Mar: -44.9%).

- Non-oil & gas (-6.4%; Mar: 3.3%): declined sharply to eight month low led by its manufacturing segment (-1.8%; Mar: 8.5%), followed by mining (-29.5%; Mar: -15.3%) and agriculture (11.8%; Mar: 18.0%). By country, shipment to the US and Japan fell sharply to -11.0% and -2.2% respectively (Mar: 13.4% and -2.6% respectively), while export toChina buckedthe trend(+6.1%; Mar: 0.3%).

● Imports fell for the tenth straight month to -18.6% YoY (Mar: -0.7%; consensus:-12.7%), mainly due to a sharpdecline in oil & gas based imports (-61.8%; Mar: 5.6%)

- Attributable to a broad-based slowdown led by raw materials (-19.1%; Mar: 1.7%), followed by capital goods (-17.1%; Mar: - 18.1%) and consumer goods (-16.6%; Mar: 10.8%).

- MoM: imports declined by 6.1% (Mar: 15.6%) to USD12.6b.

● Trade balanceturnedinto a deficit of USD0.3b (Mar: +USD0.7b). Meanwhile, total trade dipped to 13.3% YoY (Mar: -0.6%), the slowest growth in 34 months.

● 2020 export forecast retained (-5.0% to -2.0%; 2019: -7.0%) on the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown measures

- Year-to-date, exports moderated further to 0.4% YoY (Jan-Mar: 2.9%) as the impact of coronavirus crisis becomes more apparent in 2Q20 due to lockdown measures imposed by key trading partners. Going forward, weaker commodity prices and an expected sharp fall in external demand would further weigh the export performance in the immediate term.

Source: Kenanga Research - 18 May 2020