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AirAsia issued a statement explaining recent issues raised by GMT research

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 17 Jun 2015, 07:24 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4774997

 

TITLE: AIRASIA BERHAD’S BUSINESS UPDATE

 

Due to the recent movement in AirAsia Berhad’s (“AirAsia” or “the Company”) share price, the Management

would like to assure the investment community that the Company has a solid footing, strong balance sheet,

rich in assets and good business outlook. These can be seen from the Company’s first quarter (“1Q15”)

performance which was recently announced. Despite the absence of marketing out of respect for the families

of passengers and staff affected by the QZ8501 incident and the challenges following that, the Company still

managed to perform better year-on-year, taking into account that 1Q14 was prior to the various aviation

incidents that hit the country and impacted the industry for the most part of 2014.

 

The Management believes that 2015 will be a very good year on the back of a better operating environment

with lower fuel price and a much more rational market, and the Company has shown good progress through its

1Q15 performance.

 

 

TRANSPARENCY OF ACCOUNTS

 

As highlighted by a number of research houses that have been covering AirAsia for years, the Company is

transparent on its performance and prides itself on its level of transparency. The Company discloses far more

than most airlines and continues to be open about what more it wants to do. In 1Q15 for example, the

Company disclosed the financial statements of its two newest associates, Philippines’ AirAsia (“PAA”) and

AirAsia India (“AAI”), on top of the financial statements of Thai AirAsia (“TAA”) and Indonesia AirAsia (“IAA”)

that the Company has been disclosing for years.

 

AirAsia is one of the most transparent airlines in the world. We clearly demonstrated this in the way we

handled the QZ8501 incident. We were upfront with facts and did not hide behind anything. The same goes to

how we handle the Company's accounts prepared in accordance with both the international and local

accounting standards, and audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

 

 

AIRCRAFT LEASING BUSINESS (“ASIA AVIATION PCL”)

 

AirAsia has always been transparent on its aircraft leasing business and has always disclosed the amount of

revenue it generated. This could be extracted from the note to the revenue line in every quarter’s earnings

announcement filed to Bursa Malaysia. There has been much discussion over the years on leasing income and

profit; hence AirAsia created Asia Aviation Capital (“AAC”), the leasing company which was incorporated in the

fourth quarter of 2014, to clearly show the Company’s leasing business and to extract a fair value from

AirAsia’s large asset pool of owned aircraft. The income earned from aircraft leased to the associates is not

excessive. The margin is very much in line with that earned by third party commercial lessors.

 

In the 1Q15 earnings announcement, the Management gave a flavour of what AAC will look like with the

income statement of the first few aircraft that have been transferred. In addition, in the Company’s 1Q15

earnings briefing presentation which is available on the Company’s website, the Management had also

provided forecast of what AAC would look like after all the aircraft leased out to the associates are transferred.

The Company has been very transparent on its leasing income and profits and will continue to do so.

 

CONSOLIDATION OF ASSOCIATES’ ACCOUNTS

 

AirAsia does not consolidate the accounts of its associates’ operations in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and

India due to regulatory reasons as the Company is not allowed to own more than 49% (40% in the Philippines)

equity interest in each of the entity. Therefore, the associates’ profits and losses are being taken into account

on AirAsia’s income statement via equity accounting method set by the regulators. Although there are

regulatory barriers, we recognise that we are to operate as one big economic entity because of the

intertwined nature of our business.

 

For the best part of last year having made it known to all, the Company has been trying to get the auditors and

regulators to allow it to consolidate. This has just not been possible but as mentioned before to the

investment community, the second quarter will see the Company including a pro forma consolidation while

the Management continues to work with the regulators to allow the Company to consolidate.

 

 

PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIA AIRASIA AND PHILIPPINES’ AIRASIA

 

(i)             INDONESIA AIRASIA (“IAA”)

 

IAA was on a good recovery track prior to the QZ8501 incident. The associate was already showing

signs of profitability in 3Q14 and 4Q14 after the route rationalisation exercise was executed in the

middle of 2014. The Management has also seen generally healthy cash flow and in fact, IAA was cash

positive in 1Q15 despite the incident which happened just before the first quarter of the year.

Average fare and load factor in 2014 were also climbing before the incident. RASK-CASK spreads were

positive in 2012 and 1H2013 until Indonesia was hit with the weakening Rupiah that pushed up USD-

denominated costs followed by fare war in Indonesia. After the route rationalisation exercise in

1H2014, RASK-CASK spread turned positive again in 2H2014 until QZ8501 happened.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Strong corrective actions are being implemented in IAA to drive its return to profitability in 3Q15 and

4Q15 and the Management targets to breakeven by end of the year. The Company forecasts RASK to

increase in 2H15 due to forecasted higher average fare and improved demand and CASK to further

reduce. IAA is cash positive and we will further improve cash flow on the back of higher cash from

operations.

 

IAA will meet payment for lease, MRF and brand license fees due to AirAsia Berhad starting this

quarter and in some months, forecasted to have surplus to pay down outstanding debt to AirAsia.

 

Key turnaround plans include a reduction of fleet size (to take out 4 aircraft), reduction of cost and

greater dependance on international traffic.

 

 

(ii)            PHILIPPINES’ AIRASIA (‘PAA”)

 

PAA has shown a better than expected recovery performance in the last couple of months after the

turnaround plans were initiated in July 2014.

 

As  soon as the turnaround plan was initiated, the Management has seen significant increase in load

factor trend from 65% in 3Q14 to 77% in 1Q15 while average fare has been quite consistent. The
Management also saw an increasing RASK trend since the middle of last year while cost reduction
exercise was also executed. In 1Q15, losses have minimised significantly and the Company expects the
associate to continue being cash positive.
 
If everything continues to go as planned, profitability is targeted for 4Q15.
 

OUTLOOK

 

The Management expects PAA to continue being cash positive and b ased on the Company’s internal

forecast and the strategy planned, the Management is targeting for PAA to be profitable in 4Q15 with

improved utilisation and load factor. The increase in aircraft utilisation and further cost savings

initiatives will lead to further reduction in non-fuel CASK. There will be no new aircraft and large

capacity being added to the Philippines this year but the Management will ramp up 2016 onwards to

build up international capacity with two potential new hubs.

 

Key turnaround plans include introduction of 1-2 new hubs, focussing on international and leisure

destinations, additional 3 aircraft per annum in the next 3 years, and further cost reduction initiatives.

 

 

(iii)           POTENTIAL EQUITY NEW EQUITY BEING RAISED AT IAA AND PAA AND CONVERTIBLE BOND

ISSUANCE

 

Step 1: Raising Share Capital to Approximately USD100 million

 

Seeing the progress made by IAA and PAA’s operations, the Management is now in the final stages of

discussions with the local partners to raise share capital to around USD100 million for IAA and PAA

from the present level of USD13.81 million and USD13.28 million respectively. Part of the cash raised

will be used to pay down AirAsia Berhad’s interco.

 

Step 2: Pre-IPO - Raising a Minimum of USD100 million from New Investor(s)

 

The Company is currently finalising the structure of the Pre-IPO exercise which is targeted to take

place in the near term. Through this exercise, there will be new investor(s) that will come in for both

IAA and PAA. The new investor(s) will inject at least USD100 million for each associate by subscribing

to convertible bonds (CB) issued by IAA and PAA respectively. The CB will have a low coupon with a 2-

year maturity period. The CB can be converted at a rate to be determined, tentatively discounted

from the valuation of the companies in 2017. As investor(s) exercise the CB in 2017, AAB will match by

capitalising our debt to ensure our shareholding remains at 49% in IAA and 40% in PAA. Part of the

cash raised in the CB subscription will be used to pay down AAB’s interco, while the remainder will be

kept in the business for working capital.

 

Step 3: IPO with Valuation of Approximately USD700 million for IAA and USD600 million for PAA

 

The target to IPO both associates will be in 2017, with valuation of approximately USD700 million for

IAA and USD600 million for PAA. The Company targets to float 20% of the shares raising minimum of

USD150 million. At IPO all shareholders will be diluted proportionately. Part of the IPO proceeds will

be used to pay down AAB’s interco.

 

BALANCE SHEET, CASH FLOW AND MANAGEMENT OF GEARING

 

AirAsia’s cash flow continues to strengthen due to capacity reductions taken last year, improved demand

especially with the recovery in Chinese traffic, and a much more rational marketplace in all our territories

especially Malaysia.

 

During the Management’s roadshows and the latest earnings briefing, the Management outlined various

strategies in detailed, on the active measures the Company is doing to manage gearing level. This includes (i)

to grow cash further through operations, (ii) capacity management, (iii) monetising non-core investments if

valuation is right and as mentioned above, through (iv) recovery of debt from IAA and PAA.

 

Currently, the Company’s net gearing level stood at 2.47 times. The Management would like to remind long-

term shareholders that the Company’s net gearing was at 4.2 times a few years back where the shareholders

were told that the Company would reduce it down to 1.5 times. Again the Management is confident of

bringing net gearing down to around 2.00 times by end of 2015.

 

This does not include potential cash of RM1 billion of repayment from IAA and PAA, potential additional sale

and leaseback transactions, and potential sale of investments (eg. Tune Insurance, AirAsia Expedia etc., which

the Management has no intention of selling as there are tremendous upside values in these investments).

 

The Management wants to also highlight the strength of AirAsia’s balance sheet as the Company owns more

than 120 aircraft. There is huge demand for sale and leaseback (“SLB”) on the Company’s aircraft and the

Management is looking into doing SLB of up to 20 aircraft this year, with no increase in operating leverage.

 

AirAsia’s gearing also will continue to decrease over the next 2-3 years as the Company has cut aircraft

acquisition from an average of 25 aircraft per year to an average net addition of only 4 aircraft per year over

the next three years

 

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1 person likes this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

r°Moi

You compare what r°Moi has posted on 14-6-15 to the AirAsia management statement today... you will know r°Moi has full grasp of the so called issues raised by CMT





Posted by r°Moi > Jun 14, 2015 11:54 AM | Report Abuse X

......The June 10 report questioned the airline’s “accounting, profit generation, cash-flow issues, leverage and group structure,” GMT Research’s founder Gillem Tulloch said in an e-mail Friday


Based solely in this...


"accounting......... group structure,”

GMT could well be taking issue with AirAsia that IAA and PAA results (losses) are not taken into account in AirAsias results...

GMT could well be contending that IAA and PAA should be treated as subsidiaries not associates ... arguing that AirAsia has control of these companies even though it has just forty over %.. based on.. well.. these companies bear the name AirAsia, using AirAsias systems, Tony is key... blah blah blah and all that, as such... should bear the full brunt of their losses..



“accounting, profit generation,

CMT could well be contending that AirAsia is generating higher income/profit by over charging its associates on leasing of aircrafts...



These are just r°Moi takes on CMTs thoughts which r°Moi don't think proper on CMTs part

2015-06-17 20:35

r°Moi

If IAA PAA are consolidated... the loans would be contra off in the group account as they would be money being owed by AirAsia to itself.... and becomes a non isssue as AirAsia itself has strong balance sheet and assets rich...

2015-06-17 20:43

SmartAss

" the leasing company which was incorporated in the fourth quarter of 2014, to clearly show the Company’s leasing business and to extract a fair value from AirAsia’s large asset pool of owned aircraft. The income earned from aircraft leased to the associates is not excessive. The margin is very much in line with that earned by third party commercial lessors. "

I think this is a very standard practise in the corporate world. As long as the charges is in line with industry standard. i worked in various multinational company before, we always transfers capacity among sister company and pay for the capacity transferred.

Does GMT expect IAA & PAA to lease air craft from third party while the sister company has excess capacity ?

2015-06-17 20:48

SmartAss

The net asset value is 1.68, I think I am gonna put some money into this counter tomorrow as current market price is a bargain.

2015-06-17 20:49

r°Moi

Posted by r°Moi > Jun 15, 2015 12:29 PM | Report Abuse X

Bloody CMT is hitting here and there... and contradicting itself too... to fish for accounting anomalies

2015-06-17 20:57

GoldenShares

r Moi, well said

2015-06-17 22:03

crawler

account is just shadow..market is factoring possible MERS outbreak that would kill the aviation industry

2015-06-18 01:03

r°Moi

AAB Business Update


Information therein are factual

Actions plans and targets therein are actionable and achievable



First catalyst... 2Q15 good results

Second catalyst... IAA PAA increasing their share capitals to USD 100m

Third catalyst.... IAA PAA Bond issue

Fourth catalyst.... IAA PAA Pre IPO

Sixth catalyst.... IAA PAA IPO


2 months... to 2 years

2015-06-18 08:18

r°Moi

r°Moi At only USD 13m... the share capitals for IAA PAA are really small.... the loans to them must have been the plan from day 1

18/06/2015 08:30



r°Moi Besides being planned for from day 1.... Anyway AirAsia is no in need of the 2.5 bil urgently.... and is no calling for payment tomorrow... where is the urgency???



There is urgency in Greek.... no urgency in AirAsia
18/06/2015 08:39




r°Moi You know... this is like...

you are 24.. living happily and minding your own business.. and planning to settle down by 27 28.....

then suddenly CMT just popped out from no where and started saying things like you must get married NOW.. you are getting too old blah blah.... WTF
18/06/2015 08:46

2015-06-18 11:42

HJey

I'm too tired to read full statement

2015-06-18 19:30

r°Moi

This CMT nuisance is blowing over in no time....

2015-06-19 14:09

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