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[转贴] 何启斌博士股市投资分享会 (加强版)
何启斌博士股市投资分享会
(加强版)
16/8/2015
马股不会爆发类似1997年的金融危机，以下几个理由支撑股市
1）政治环境目前还是处于稳定期，没有任何暴动，而回教党的加入反而壮大了国政的实力，虽然政治丑闻围绕首相，但预计首相纳吉将继续执政。
若是纳吉下台, 马股最少下调300点。(您可不这么想或不卖, 但我会马上走)
由于纳吉在任期间太过软弱, 採取太过开放政策, 造成政局混乱。当下执行集权行动时, 将加强国家稳定。
砂劳越国阵可望在州选举中胜出, 华裔票将有所回流。
国阵可在来临大选中继续执政。从世界各国历史中, 当某个种族团结起来时, 另一个种族相对也会团结。
加上选区划分的优势, 就算100%华裔和一部分巫裔投下反对票, 国阵依然胜出。(信不信由你, 这是事实)
一马公司的债负不是大问题。若是清盘, 也可脱售资产偿还。对实体经济没有影响。我们需更关注外围市场。
稳定的政治才能巩固股市信心。
*以上乃何博士论点
2）由于中国让人民币贬值，这将拖慢美国升息的速度。虽然美国升息是无可避免的，但由于美元指数并没有大幅度上升，所以这一次的升息幅度预计很小，也会很慢，这将不会继续重挫马股。
3）目前的经济情况不像1997年那么脆弱，当时外汇储备只有200亿美元，还有国际金融专家索罗斯的袭击，目前储备有900多亿美元，而当今也没有任何类似索罗斯的人物再次出现。
4）目前马股没有当时1997年的CLOB系统来链接新加坡股市，1997年外资可以透过新加坡股票交易所来抛售马股，但目前已经没有类似系统再次出现。如今所有外资公司都需在大马登记成Sdn Bhd, 对外围影响, 巳经大大减低。
5）国际收支balance of payment目前处于健康状况，current account处于正数的状况。
没有出现货币短缺现象。
国行宣布不会干扰马币走势，也不会实行资金管制是对的决定，因为外资的投资策略是不能投资在有资金管制的国家，如果实行资金管制的话将加速外资撤退，那马股将面临崩盘的局面。国行可能在美联储升息后, 跟进升息。
根据国际货币基金组织的数据，由于贸易收支平衡，储备金充足，马来西亚是一个相当难破产的国家,排名最易破产国家第150名。虽然马币目前面临抛售，但没有危机的讯号, 也还没有被外国炒家操纵现象。
我国也可自主的採取多样政策来应对任何市场变化。
通胀不会大幅上涨, 这是既于我国的主要进口国来自于中国及东亚各国, 而这些国家的货币将持续走低。
但是有一点值得注意的是, 外资手握大马国债(MGS)50%左右。 若全部抛售, 现今储备金将难以坻抗。
大宗商品如石油，棕油等的时代已过，商品价格将持续低迷10年左右。
中国经济放缓, 也是因素之一。
美国通胀也不会上升很多, 因为人民币贬值提高了美国人民的消费能力。美股还有上涨空间, 本益比30倍还是低于历史最高100倍。但美国在接下来几年间不断加息, 可顸见在3年后进入哀退。这将影响大马电子制造业出口。
目前大马房地产的贷款占了银行体系的38%左右，相当接近过去房地产泡沫的水平，由于国行开始实行打房政策，加上房产价格大力飙升，未来五年房地产前景相 当不看好，接下来只要有资金周转问题，将导致房产价格下跌30-50%，而这一切问题看来将会在2016年开始发生,2017将会是无价无市。
由于房地产经历六年的牛市,已经渐渐露出疲态。我们可以从房贷总值并没有随着房产总值上升中,看得出来。反而银行房贷却在收紧。
目前的局势，马币应该会波动介于3.70-4.20的水平，并不会跌至98年价位(4.8), 而大马综合指数则预计处在1550点的位置被支撑着。
完结
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 43 of 43 comments
1）政治环境目前还是处于稳定期，没有任何暴动，而回教党的加入反而壮大了国政的实力，虽然政治丑闻围绕首相，但预计首相纳吉将继续执政。
若是纳吉下台, 马股最少下调300点。(您可不这么想或不卖, 但我会马上走)
由于纳吉在任期间太过软弱, 採取太过开放政策, 造成政局混乱。当下执行集权行动时, 将加强国家稳定。
砂劳越国阵可望在州选举中胜出, 华裔票将有所回流。
国阵可在来临大选中继续执政。从世界各国历史中, 当某个种族团结起来时, 另一个种族相对也会团结。
加上选区划分的优势, 就算100%华裔和一部分巫裔投下反对票, 国阵依然胜出。(信不信由你, 这是事实)
一马公司的债负不是大问题。若是清盘, 也可脱售资产偿还。对实体经济没有影响。我们需更关注外围市场。
看到这些垃圾，就不想看了。。。1MDB不是问题？华人票会回流？
2015-08-18 22:11
property slowdown due to BNM policy. if they ease, it will go back high
2015-08-19 08:28
请翻看报纸，何博士是第一个马币还没有狂泻的时候，就预测马币今年内比跌破RM3.8~4, 进而预测马股也会跟着跌到1600。请问你有这样的分析预测能力吗？何博士的话不能参考，那我觉得自以为是的人更加不能让人信服，讲了等于没讲。
2015-08-19 08:31
Posted by davidkkw79 > Aug 19, 2015 08:25 AM | Report Abuse
谁那么自大脑残而认为何博士扭曲事实而偏帮国阵？！
Have u ever followed his talks/articles etc? I have known him since 1997
2015-08-19 08:43
Do u know that the joker once established a website (Malaysia sini, if i m not mistaken) trying to do a copycat on Malaysiakini but only full of pro BN rubbish articles.....
2015-08-19 08:45
During 1997/1998 while he was not yet a Prof, he oredi started to post a lot in newspaper...Some of his few articles which I could still remember is that he sang the same tune with Dr.M that the financial crisis which we faced at that moment was due to the attack by the foreigners as they were jealous of our achievement.....Another great article from him (if I m not mistaken) was that the 1998 Nipah Outbreak (pig disease) could be due to the conspiracy of foreigners as well....All those rubbish articles from him made me have a deep memory on him from that on wards..but too bad I couldnt retrieve those masterpiece of him now....
2015-08-19 08:53
....You are talking the past, but somehow you are talking your impression on him. At the end you also can prove the past whether it is due to someone attack us lead to financial crisis of year 1998.It seems like we are talking different things, cause I am impressed of he managed to predict this time falling of malaysia ringgit.
2015-08-19 10:49
It is true that our reserve is higher now, it is also true that our foreign debt have moved from about RM90B in 1998 to currently over RM700B, which is over 800% higher. Are we better off than 1998? There are 100s of Soros's brother out there, waiting for right time to strike !! How to defend when they strike?
2015-08-19 11:05
I am just telling you on my impressions on him.However, I cant find 4 witnesses for you on whether he receives donation from BN or not.
Just like nobody can prove whether Ajib use the donation to buy bags or cincin for hippo or not...so no case....
2015-08-19 11:08
Care to share the links for this....
Posted by davidkkw79 > Aug 19, 2015 08:31 AM | Report Abuse
请翻看报纸，何博士是第一个马币还没有狂泻的时候，就预测马币今年内比跌破RM3.8~4, 进而预测马股也会跟着跌到1600。请问你有这样的分析预测能力吗？何博士的话不能参考，那我觉得自以为是的人更加不能让人信服，讲了等于没讲。
2015-08-19 11:11
LOL, I just cant see any special in his above article....
目前的局势，马币应该会波动介于3.70-4.20的水平，并不会跌至98年价位(4.8), 而大马综合指数则预计处在1550点的位置被支撑着。
2015-08-19 11:14
murali , i have seen enough ,agree with you 100%, no need to argue with another BN kaki.
2015-08-19 11:18
Tey Tian Foo brought up a good point, while Dr.Ho claimed our reserves now is much higher than 1998, how is our foreign debt now??
2015-08-19 11:22
There is no right or wrong, we only know that after a while. If we think he is wrong then show our forecast. So we can review and compare to see who is correct. No point keep argue never ending.
2015-08-19 11:39
check look into 2013, which side he work for first..
3.70 and 4.20 is a big range, what about break above that. if the confidence is no more, sell MYR assets and convert to USD, sure it will break. where the confidence come from?
2015-08-19 11:52
nobody can forecast correctly as factors keep developing ,and changing with new revealations ,and new factors come into the scene,all we know we have no seen the light yet.
2015-08-19 12:02
malaysia weakness & threat:
Weakness:
1. Political uncertainty- as najis choose to stay on.
2. Unresolved 1MDB
3. 2.6B scandal
4. Ringgit is weakening
5. Oil price remains soft
Threat :
1. US interest rate
2. China slowing down - commodity prices will remain low.
3. Europe recovery is slow and weak
4. japan is contracting again...
thus, KLSE and ringgit will continue in down trend. Please comments...
2015-08-19 12:48
Malaysia is paying the price for weak foreign currency holdings and messy politics as the cost to protect its debt soars to near a four-year high. UBS Group AG predicts even more pain ahead.
The spread on the nation’s credit-default swaps widened 74 basis points in 2015 to 180 this week, a level not seen since October 2011. It’s the worst performing in Asia and almost 40 basis points more than similar-rated oil-producer Mexico, which the Swiss bank says best illustrates the malaise for Malaysia.
“The moves in CDS are telling us that the market is increasingly nervous about the central bank’s ability to manage the foreign-exchange selloff in light of its relatively light reserves position,” said Manik Narain, a London-based strategist at UBS. “Malaysia’s situation may now be more precarious.”
Bank Negara Malaysia’s foreign-exchange reserves slipped below US$100 billion last month for the first time since 2010. They look “increasingly meagre” by emerging-market standards, said Narain, and compare with foreigners’ RM206.8 billion (US$50.6 billion) holdings of local-currency debt in July, the lowest in three years.
The ringgit this week traded near the weakest level since 1998 as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak comes under the spotlight over reports of an almost $700 million donation into his bank account that was initially linked to debt-ridden state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd.
The central bank might have to raise interest rates because of a limited ability to defend the currency amid falling reserves, Narain said.
The ringgit was trading at 4.09 per dollar at 10:18 am in Kuala Lumpur and UBS expects the currency to fall to 4.20 by year-end. – Bloomberg, August 19, 2015
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/more-pain-ahead-for-malaysia-amid-messy-politics-warns-ubs#sthash.YzFYgWtN.dpuf
2015-08-19 12:54
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors are ‘escaping’ Malaysia, a Bloomberg report today has concluded.
Chua Hak Bin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Singapore sums up the reasons.
“Investors cannot see the end game,” he tells Bloomberg. “Anybody who questions the prime minister has basically been sidelined.”
“The domestic situation on the political side is uncertain,” he adds, and its politics may affect economic management. With Bank Negara Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz’s term expiring in April 2016 there are doubts that she will be replaced by someone as “independent and credible,” he said further.
Bloomberg points to some alarming statistics since August 3, the day the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) declared the RM2.6 billion which Prime Minister Najib Razak received in his private banking accounts came from donors rather than from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB):
The ringgit has slumped 5.6 percent
the benchmark KLCI has lost 8.3 percent
sovereign bond risk has jumped to a four-year high
1MDB bonds are trading at 81 cents to the dollar despite MACC’s seemingly favourable announcement.
Of the foreign funds cited in the report, PineBridge Investments LLC has reduced its Malaysian sovereign bond holdings while Schroder Investment Management Ltd does not think that the ringgit, Asia’s worst performing currency, is worth investing in at the present time.
It means that Najib’s attempt at reshuffling his cabinet into what he has called a ‘unified team’ has been in vain.
“By sacking everyone who criticizes him, Prime Minister Najib is putting himself more in the spotlight from an international investor perspective,” PineBridge’s Anders Faergemann was quoted as saying.
“The mix of politics, money trails and central bank investigations would rank it close to Petrobras in terms of how toxic it is to emerging-market investors,” fund manager Yasmine Ravai-Mans of La Francaise Des Placements in France was quoted as saying.
“There’s a growing trust deficit with the current leadership,” Chua said further. “Without confidence returning to the leadership and government, investors will be reluctant to jump into the currency and the markets.”
He expects the ringgit to fall to 4.28 by the end 2016
- See more at: http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2015/08/19/bloomberg-foreign-investors-escaping/#sthash.TxJ9wiPq.dpuf
2015-08-19 12:56
Posted by davidkkw79 > Aug 19, 2015 12:37 PM | Report Abuse
I m talking economic,but it sound like here full of politicians
LOL...若是纳吉下台, 马股最少下调300点。(您可不这么想或不卖, 但我会马上走)
由于纳吉在任期间太过软弱, 採取太过开放政策, 造成政局混乱。当下执行集权行动时, 将加强国家稳定。
Yr beloved 何博士 is one of them who likes to mess politic around with economy....
How long have you followed his posting or seminars etc? Go thru his records and then you will see his political stance. Dont simply worship him just for this article or his title...
To me, Dr.Ho's credibility is slightly better than Utusan Msia/ TV3 etc
2015-08-19 14:47
This fellow simply put up his foolish view in politic and wanted to get public attention only. FF disposed RM 300 million worth of shares yesterday. They still have more than RM 12.8 billion value of shares to dump the market.
2015-08-19 15:43
With Malaysian got less stupid and wiser, less racist, less religion fanatics which is natural. UMNO would get less vote naturally. Hence, the table would turn whereby PAS would become spoiler to UMNO rather than Pakatan. Most probably the vote outcome would be UMNO (BN) around 40%, PAS at 6% to 7% and Pakatan 52% to 54%. That would make UMNO loss heavily left only 50 to 60 seats and change of government.
2015-08-19 17:07
the number of vote doesn't really count as m'sia is using "first past the post" system, so pls go and register to vote in those small town as the vote does count there as compared to big city in which there are not many parliament seats at stake.
2015-08-19 17:37
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2015-08-18 21:13