NAPERVILLE : The US spring planting season is humming along at an above-average clip, though recent and upcoming rains should slow progress during what is typically peak week for corn planting.

Rain-induced planting delays, if excessive, could limit corn yields as pollination may occur in warmer weather.

More immediately, wet spring weather can cap potential acreage gains, but fast planting has not always generated more crop acres.

In March, US corn planting intentions for 2024 came in well below expectations, but analysts were also suspicious of a notably light overall crop acreage, down 1.9% from 2023.

Many expect these acres will be found in the government’s June or final surveys.

US forecasters on Tuesday placed slight odds on a wetter-than-normal May across parts of the Corn Belt with emphasis on the first two weeks, which could prevent a “fast” spring planting season.

Significant weather-driven delays are unlikely, though they have occurred in two of the past five years (2019, 2022).

Many more acres?

Even with favourable spring weather, potential increases to total 2024 US crop acres may be disappointing due to lower prices and the declining availability of US crop land.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on March 28 pegged 2024 US principal crop acres down about six million from 2023 and more than four million below the recent average when excluding outlier years.

Acres tend to rise into the June survey but are typically overstated at that time.

The 1.9% year-on-year drop in total acres is smaller than the 2.4% decline in 2015, which featured normal to quick planting progress.

Since 2015, final principal crop acres have not been more than 0.5% higher than the March figure, which would translate to about 1.6 million acres for 2024.

Price fluctuations almost never sway major crop planting intentions between March and June, but they may have an impact over a year or longer.

Using corn as an example, new-crop December 2024 Chicago Board of Trade futures averaged 17% lower in October than in the previous October, the largest yearly decline since 2015.

US farmers often make next season’s decisions in the fall and report plans to USDA in March.

New-crop corn this March was 17% lower than in March 2023 and down 28% from March 2022, the largest two-year dive since 2010, a year that featured lower final corn acres despite lightning-fast planting.

The comparable acreage and price trends in 2010 and 2015 could justify the lighter acreage estimates for 2024, capping the expected build in supplies.

However, the 2024 pool of total crop acres is likely the smallest of the three years.

The 2022 US Census of Agriculture, published earlier this year, showed total harvested cropland acres down nearly 6% or 19 million acres from 2017.

Urbanisation and other projects, such as the rise in solar farms, may have reduced area dedicated to grain and oilseed production, particularly over the last decade.

Corn fast, soybeans faster

The USDA pegged US corn planting progress at 27% as of Sunday, ahead of the recent five-year average of 22% and 10-year average of 24%. Slow efforts in 2019 and 2022 weigh on the recent mean.

There is no historical instance of above-average corn planting on April 28 preceding a below-average pace three weeks later, when planting should be around 75% complete.

That drastically minimises chances of repeating 2019 or 2022, when total crop acres took a hit.

Next Monday’s report will be as of May 5, when corn planting should be around 40% finished.

However, more than 76mm of rain could accumulate over the next seven days in the heart of the Corn Belt.

Soybeans were 18% planted as of April 28, record-fast for the date and above the five-year average of 10%.

That may not necessarily signal a rise in planned soybean acres because an increasing number of farmers in the very recent years has started planting some beans before corn.

Traditionally, soybeans were planted after corn was mostly completed due to the time-sensitivity of corn seeding.

 - Reuters