Thailand is at risk of another bout of instability, a key opposition politician said as the nation’s courts prepare to rule whether to dissolve his party and if the prime minister should be removed.

Pita Limjaroenrat, who led the reformist Move Forward Party to an electoral victory last year but was thwarted from forming government, said in an interview that the two court cases may bring about “quite a political inferno here in Thailand”.

Top constitutional judges will rule next week on whether to disband Move Forward, which is accused of breaking election rules over a campaign to amend a stringent royal defamation law. The top court will then decide a week later, if Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin should be removed from office for an alleged ethical violation.

Any move against either men could once again thrust the nation into political turmoil at a time its government has been struggling to deliver for its under-performing economy.

“It’s safe to assume that democracy in Thailand is on the defence,” Pita, 43, said in the interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday.

The former prime minister hopeful was thwarted from forming a government by the country’s conservative elites following last summer’s vote. Move Forward has nevertheless retained its popularity and Pita remains the most popular choice for the prime minister’s post.

Should Thailand’s constitutional court ban the party and expel him from politics, Pita said the decision could lead to protests though he doubts they would be as big as the ones sparked by the 2020 dissolution of Future Forward, a predecessor of Move Forward.

Given that experience, Pita said setting up a new party would “go smoother” this time around. “If we do that, regardless of what the name would be, the ‘Leap Forward Party’ or whatever name, it doesn’t matter much,” he added.

Should he get banned, Pita said it would be up to the new party assembly to pick a leader, and Move Forward deputy Sirikanya Tansakun could be a candidate.

She’s “quite an accomplished economist graduating in France and working in the fiscal and macro policy space throughout her life”, he said. “She would be a great candidate, but not the only candidate.”

A fresh spell of political upheaval meanwhile is likely to further weigh on the country’s economy after years of tepid growth. The Thai stock market is one of the world’s worst-performing in the past year and fresh turmoil could accelerate an exodus of foreign investors from the country’s financial markets.

Earlier on Thursday, the government began signing up beneficiaries for a US$14 billion cash handout program, which Srettha is counting on to revitalise growth. But, those plans could unravel should he be removed from office.

Pita is not the only one in the hot seat. In a separate case, Thaksin Shinawatra, a two-time former prime minister who’s seen as the de facto leader of Srettha’s ruling Pheu Thai Party, was last month indicted in a royal insult case that has its origins in an interview he gave back in 2015. The court seized Thaksin’s passport and ordered him to be present on Aug 19 when it will begin scrutinising the evidence in the case.

For now, Pita said he doesn’t see an alliance with Thaksin’s party, which joined hands with the military-backed establishment to form a coalition government. Srettha, he said, has “underperformed” as a leader thus far.

“It’s not a natural alliance,” Pita said. The current situation “shows the fragmentation or the fracture in the ruling government for sure”.

  - Bloomberg