Copper and nickel made in China flooded overseas into warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange (LME) last month, as tepid domestic demand triggers a wave of exports that has weighed on global prices.

China, the largest metals market, is typically a significant net copper importer, but weak local conditions have reversed global trade flows in recent months, weighing on prices. Chinese-origin copper made up 72% of the increase in exchange-monitored inventories in July, and accounted for 53% of the total at the end of the month, up from 45% in June, LME data showed. 

The LME snapshot of metals’ origins tallies with official figures from China that showed copper exports have been running at a record pace, as well as daily bourse data that revealed a massive build-up in holdings in the sheds that are nearest to mainland China, especially South Korea and Taiwan.

For nickel, flows from China accounted for 87% of the rise, and 35% of the total. More of the metal from China has been flowing overseas after the LME banned new Russian supplies at a time when Chinese production has been topping demand. Local producers including GEM Co and CNGR Advanced Material Co have registered to list their nickel on the LME, the largest metals exchange.

Still, conditions may have started to turn around this month, with an arbitrage window for importing refined copper into China reopening, meaning that purchases from overseas are profitable once again. In addition, the Yangshan premium for imported copper - one measure of local demand - has rebounded, along with orders to withdraw metal from LME-tracked sheds.

Copper - which dropped about 4% in both June and July - was 0.8% lower at US$8,959 a tonne on the LME at 12.05am in Singapore. Nickel fell 0.8% to US$16,225 a tonne after hitting US$15,600 last month, the lowest since 2020. 

The LME origin data also showed the first batch of Indonesian nickel was delivered into the LME-tracked warehouse network last month. The Southeast Asian nation is developing into a major supplier of ore and refined metal in recent years following a wave of Chinese-led investment in local plants.  

  - Bloomberg