Koon Yew Yin's Blog
AYS reasonable target price - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Fri, 26 Nov 2021, 12:47 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
On 15 October, AYS share price was 88 sen when the company announced share placement of 38 million shares at 76 sen each to big investor who knew the company operation and its profit growth potential. No investor would buy 38 million AYS shares unless he knows the company’s business and its management.
How is the share placement price fixed?
According to Security Commission rule, the placement price should not be less than the average price in the last 5 trading days with a discount of not more than 5%.
Its 2nd quarter ending Sept EPS was 6.51 sen and its 1st quarter ending June EPS was 8.5 sen, totaling 15 sen for 1st half year. All these profits were achieved during the Covid 19 pandemic MCO lockdown. Currently there is no more MCO lockdown and AYS should be able to make better profit in its 2nd half year than its 1st half year.
Assuming its 2nd half year performance is the same as its 1st half year, its annual profit EPS will be 30 sen per share.
Based on PE 3, AYS should be 90 sen.
Based on PE 4, AYS should be Rm 1.20.
Based on PE 5, AYS should be Rm 1.50.
Investors must bear in mind that AYS’ share placement price was 76 sen.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments
Sorry to say, I think KYY should get service of experts to help in investment.
What is the point of calculating PE based on past 2Q plus next 2Q only?
What if the company make very little profit after that?
KYY should estimate / predict the company next 5 (at least) years profit.
I give an example for a company XYZ, apply a discounted rate of 8%.
1) 2022 EPS : 0.25, pv = 0.25/1.08 = 0.23
2) 2023 EPS : 0.20, pv = 0.20/1.08^2 = 0.17
3) 2024 EPS : 0.15, pv = 0.15/1.08^3 = 0.12
4) 2025 EPS : 0.10, pv = 0.10/1.08^4 = 0.07
5) 2026 EPS : 0.05, pv = 0.05/1.08^5 = 0.03
6) 2026 price at PE of 10, pv = 0.05*10/1.08^5 = 0.34
Sum up the above 6 items, fair value = 0.23+0.17+0.12+.07+0.03+0.34 = 0.96
2021-11-28 08:30
This KYY is really desperate until he advice AYS management to manipulate the latest qtrly accounts loh!
But even if management listen to kyy, it is too late now mah, the sept qtrly accounts is already out mah!
No point manipulating the account loh...just look at serba....if business no good....no matter how u manipulate, the long run the share price will fall loh!
At the end the major shareholders, directors and management are in hot soup mah!
It is best to be honest & give a true and fair position of the company, every qtr whether the accounts will be audited or not mah!
GENERAL RAIDER ALWAYS STRESSED HONESTY IS THE BEST POLICY MAH!
2024-01-12 11:00
I believe his advice is all in with margin service. Any joining the call or too dangerous?
2021-11-17 12:00
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