i3gambler

i3gambler | Joined since 2016-05-03

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Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

60 sen.
The independent advisor said too cheap, ask shareholders not to accept/sell.

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I try to find out whether I can accept the general offer via BursaAnywhere,
But found out that I can't do it via the app.
Is it the only way I can do it is by fill in the hard copy form and mail back to the Registrar?
Can anyone please help to double confirm this?

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Turn out to be BKAWAN to pay Cash Dividend as it sold plantation asset in Kalimantan to KLK.

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Dividend with DRIP is useless, nothing good at all.
Just like a mini scale of bonus issue, at the end no Cash flow out from the fund, total size or NAV remain the the same.
Anyway most investors like it, I don't know like it for what.

Stock

2 months ago | Report Abuse

snowball2000,
You can go to yahoo finance and search for it.

://finance.yahoo.com/quote/601838.SS/key-statistics?p=601838.SS

Stock

2 months ago | Report Abuse

My opinion,
Logically, holding company discount should only be applicable to those companies that owning non-controlling stake, which have no say in business operation, example INSAS holding INARI, ICAP holding a basket of companies.

But HLFG have full control of HLBANK and HLCAP, so to me, holding company discount is not applicable.

Stock

2023-12-02 18:44 | Report Abuse

HLFG own 1340m HLBANK shares
HLFG total out-standing shares = 1134m
Therefore, for every single share of HLFG that we own, it indirectly own 1.1817 share HLBANK.

For the last 4 quarters:
HLBANK EPS=RM1.8873
HLFG EPS = RM2.514

HLFG EPS = 1.1817 * HLBANK EPS + other business EPS,
other business EPS = 2.514 -1.1817 * 1.8873 = 0.2838,

(2.514 - 0.2838) / 2.514 = 88.7%,
Meaning 88.7% of HLFG profit is from HLBANK.

Now, look at their Net Asset per share at 30th Sep 2023,
HLBANK Net Asset per share = RM16.68,
HLFG Net Asset per share = RM24.25,

Same way of calculation,
HLFG other business Net Asset per share = 24.25 - 1.1817 * 16.68 = RM4.54
Meaning the ROE for HLFG other business = 0.2838 / 4.54 = 6.25%, Not Bad.

Now the question is why HLFG is trading at so much cheaper compare to HLBANK?
Because there is a Conglomerate Discount or in Malaysia we call it holding company discount.
But logically it should not be applicable to HLBANK / HLFG because 88.7% of HLFG profit come from HLBANK.

What you people think of it?







Stock

2023-10-26 10:49 | Report Abuse

Refer to quarterly report @ 31.08.2023, which was announced yesterday.

The investment portfolio / NAV = 72.68%, the rest was Cash, I think the weight was OK.

There were 27 counters in the investment portfolio.
The top 4 counters add up already = 46.19%, I think this was no good, too heavy weight on a few counters.
There were 15 counters which the weight were less than 1% of NAV, and add up total = 6.11% only.
If I were the fund manager, I would just dispose off all these chicken feeds counters.

I really do not like the existing investment portfolio, and the discount is getting smaller to around 23%.
Buy ICAP now for what purpose?

Stock

2023-10-17 16:13 | Report Abuse

ICAP NAV grew at 7.82% p.a. since inception.

But he said "If the NAV doubles in 5 years, your dividend payment and dividend yield doubles in 5 years."

To double in 5 years, you need 14.87%,
Almost double of the historical 7.82%.

Stock

2023-10-15 11:54 | Report Abuse

Let say there are Mr.A and Mr.B, each own 1.40m units ICAP or in term of ownership percentage it is 1.0%.

1) After ICAP bought back 10% or 14m units at market price 2.68, spent about 37.52m, total outstanding units become 126m.

Mr.A decide to maintain 1.0% ownership, then he need to sell 0.14m units, so that he will now own 1.26m units, and the sale proceeds = 2.68*0.14m = 375.2K, it is just like a cash dividend for him.

Mr.B does not want to sell, he keep holding 1.40m units, and ownership will increase to 1.1111%. It is just like he receive cash dividend and use the money to buy more units.

Distributing the treasury units is just a mini scale of bonus issue, meaningless and it is creating odd lot / troublesome for all the small unit holders. For good company like BKAWAN, they just burn all the 44m treasury shares in June 2020.

2) If ICAP pay cash dividend instead of SBB, spent the same 37.52m, or DPS=37.52m/140m = 0.268.

Mr.A decide to maintain 1.0% ownership, he just take and keep the cash dividend = 1.4m*0.268 =375.2K.

Mr.B want to have higher ownership in term of ownership = 1.1111%, then he need to use the cash dividend 375.2K and buy extra 155556 units from open market. The ex-Dividend price should be = 2.68 - 0.268 = 2.412, so the purchase cost = 155556*2.412 = 375.2K, exactly equal to the cash dividend amount that Mr.B received.


My conclusion, SBB and Cash Dividend, they are 99% the same.

But practically SBB is better than Cash Dividend in reducing the Price/NAV gap.
Because other than Mr.A and Mr.B, there are also many passive Mr.C, they do nothing when SBB, and also do nothing when receive cash dividend.

Stock

2023-10-14 11:39 | Report Abuse

Share Buy Back is a combination of the followings:
1) Give you Cash Dividend (No Drip)
2) Company to decide for you, when and at what price to buy additional ownership.

Too bad, no fund manager will like share buy back or cash dividend.
Because Total NAV will shrink.

TTB was already very kind to pay out 9.5 sen and 20 sen dividend.

My suggestion to TTB:
1) Go for right issue 1:1 at price 1.50
2) Use all the right issue money for Share Buy Back

Of course I don't know whether BURSA will approve or not such purpose of right issue. 😀😀

Stock

2023-10-13 18:15 | Report Abuse

Share Buy Back and Cash Dividend (No DRIP) , will result in Total NAV shrinking, and therefore less annual fees.
No fund manager will like it,

For past 18 years, ICAP paid out 9.5 sen (13.3m)and 20 sen (28.0m) cash dividend.
The effect is not only on that year, buy every years after that,
Every year the fund manager will get less = (13.3m + 28.0m) * 1.5% = 620K.

Stock

2023-10-12 13:14 | Report Abuse

stockraider

So, INSAS is also kind of Closed End Fund. 😀😀

Check at Yahoo Finance, INSAS Adjusted Close on 19.10.2005 = 0.2123,
Current Price = 0.88,
Cumulative Return = 0.88/0.2123-1= 315%,
Beat ICAP in both NAV and Price Performance for the last 18 years.

Stock

2023-10-11 08:29 | Report Abuse

The following blue chips are also kind of Closed End Fund, with even higher discount compare to ICAP:

1) BKAWAN, owning:
1a) KLK
1b) A small oil palm estate in Indonesia
1c) Other chemical businesses
Performed very much better than ICAP for the last 18 years.

2) GENTING owning:
2a) Genting Singapore
2b) Genting Malaysia
2c) Genting Plantation
2d) Landmark
2e) Power Plant, Oil and Gas, and etc
Performed very much worse than ICAP for the last 18 years.

3) HLFG, owning:
3a) HLBANK
3b) Insurance business
3c) Other small businesses
Performed very much better than ICAP for the last 18 years.

Why not we have a look at the above 3 blue chips?

Stock

2023-10-10 09:29 | Report Abuse

Let say:
1) 10 sen dividend, and with 10% discount DRIP.
2) If I have 10000 unit, I get 1000,
3) Worth it for me to opt for DRIP because the stamp duty is only RM10
4) And DRIP is simple task now, can just do it by Bursa Anywhere app.

Refer to ICAP annual report, there are total 6 million units from the group who own 10000 or below.
Assuming only them will opt for cash, ICAP will pay out 600K instead of 14 million cash.
In fact I believe some of those who own a few thousand units will also opt for DRIP, still gain more than the stamp duty.

I believe the Innovative dividend policy will not help in closing the Price / NAV gap.

Stock

2023-10-09 17:16 | Report Abuse

The big discount has been there for many years, unit holders will be very reluctant to buy more when the discount is around 20%, worry that the discount could bounce back to 30-40%.

Stock

2023-10-09 17:07 | Report Abuse

Only the following actions will reduce the discount:
1) Share buy back whenever the discount > 20%.
2) TTB himself buys whenever the discount > 20%.
3) ICAP's fans buy whenever the discount > 20%, for this, if ICAP pay real dividend without DRIP, it will help.

Stock

2023-10-09 16:48 | Report Abuse

A dividend with 10% discount DRIP is not a real dividend,
but rather a mini scale bonus issue, an useless exercise and wasting admin work cost.

Those who:
1) want to have extra units, will go for DRIP.
2) want to have cash, will also go for DRIP, and then sell the extra units in the open market.

Only those who own very small quantity of units will opt for cash because DRIP option need stamp duty of RM10 (if not mistaken).

Stock

2023-10-07 11:42 | Report Abuse

Innovative Dividend Policy,
The unit holders would have additional cash money to buy more units,
And certainly would reduce the NAV / Price gap.

But by doing so, a certain amount of cash would flow out from the fund,
The total NAV of the fund will reduce, and the annual fees would reduce too.
I gave a thumb up to TTB, and I thought of buy some ICAP.

However, when I read that the DRIP would be applicable, and the discount could be as high as 10%,
As there is an attractive discount, most people would go for DRIP,
Only very little cash flow out from the fund.
Then, this is not really a real Dividend, but more like a mini scale of Bonus Issue.

How could this DRIP reduce the NAV / Price gap?

Stock

2023-10-04 16:27 | Report Abuse

To compare ICAP and EPF, I make a spreadsheet.
1) Invest 36000 on 1st Jan every year from 2006 to 2023, total 18 years.
2) The Dividend received from ICAP would be reinvested on the next 1st Jan.

As of today,
1) For ICAP, if I sell at NAV of 3.57, the CAGR=6.85%.
2) For ICAP, if I sell at Market Price of 2.59, the CAGR=3.67%
3) For EPF, the CAGR=5.88%.

Stock

2023-07-21 15:45 | Report Abuse

Is AEON the anchor tenant?
If so, I believe it enjoys steep discount all these years.
The space they occupied all these years could now be rented out with higher rent.
However, other small tenants may ask for lower rent due to the departure of AEON.
In business, it is all about negotiation / bargaining.


Stock

2023-06-23 07:43 | Report Abuse

If Maybank were to take over RHB, not likely to have so much cash to pay for it, most probably pay by issueing new Maybank shares to RHB shareholders, so take over = merger in this case.

Stock

2023-06-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

Total Assets=41128m, or per share=RM7.47
Total Liabilities= 19,241m, or per share=RM3.49
Non-controlling interests=146m
Net Assets=41128-19241-146=21741m, or per share=RM3.95.

Share Price=RM1.11,
Total Assets / Price = 7.47/1.11=6.73 times

Comparison to buying a house with 85% loan, =100/15 =6.67 times.

Stock

2023-06-10 19:33 | Report Abuse

unicornbird

Investment Assets:
Sep 2022: 961B
Dec 2022: 1010B
Mar 2023: 1040B

Currently 63% of Investment Assets is in Malaysia,
PMX said to EPF, please consider to increase it to 70%,
and now EPF said to allocate >70% of its new investment annual allocation to local market.

Stock

2023-06-10 08:14 | Report Abuse

unicornbird,

More than 60% of Maybank shares are owned by PNB/Amanah Saham and EPF.
These funds get exemption, no need to report the NAV / unit, undervalued price is not a concern.
You see the size of these funds are growing due to new money keep coming in.
Meaning they buy more than sell, low price definitely an advantage.

For me, I buy Maybank for the following reasons:
1) As an high interest rate FD.
2) As an emergency fund, can sell it very fast as the volume is big.
3) Volatility is much lower than other index counters, would not incur heavy loss if Sell in urgent.


Stock

2023-06-07 09:07 | Report Abuse

1) ASB and ASB2 maximum investment increased from 200K to 300K.
2) ASM additional 5 billion units.
3) EPF voluntary contribution increased from 60K to 100K.

All the above happened recently.

I guess big portion of cash will be invested in MAYBANK.

Stock

2023-05-26 15:52 | Report Abuse

For those who bought at an average below RM1.90, privatization is attractive.

Stock

2023-05-26 08:35 | Report Abuse

loneranger,
Look at different angle, may be higher chance for privatization.

Stock

2023-05-24 13:27 | Report Abuse

Where got profit go up so much?
Look at Pre-Tax profit, up only 2.7%, even lower than inflation rate.
The Profit after tax go up due to Cukai makmur.

Stock

2023-03-12 09:34 | Report Abuse

Haha....Because someone pump up at Closing, so I hope to sell in the evening and buy back the next trading day morning.

Stock

2023-03-10 17:01 | Report Abuse

Haha......I Q sell at 5.69,
Will try every evening.

Stock

2023-03-10 14:42 | Report Abuse

calvintaneng,

Depreciation is not a concern, as the profit is already net of depreciation.
1) Rental yield for a landed property may be is only 2%.
2) Rental yield for a condo may be higher at 4%.
3) Rental yield for a car may be higher than 20%.

Stock

2023-03-09 16:44 | Report Abuse

prudentinvestor,

The dividend (in units) were already added to ASB unitholders account on 1st January.
Maybe ASB has to standby cash in case many unitholders want to redeem their units before Hari Raya.

Stock

2023-03-09 16:27 | Report Abuse

One major reason for switching is Yesterday I read MAYBANK announcement that ASB sold 94.9m shares on 6th March.

Stock

2023-03-09 15:54 | Report Abuse

Sold all my MAYBANK and switched to RHBBANK.

Stock

2023-03-09 15:53 | Report Abuse

Sold all my MAYBANK and switched to RHBBANK.

Watchlist

2023-03-09 14:56 | Report Abuse

Look at Philip's portfolio, I explore YINSON-WA.
1) Check YINSON target prices here in i3.
2) Calculate YINSON historical volatility.
3) Check YINSON dividend yield.
4) Use 200 steps Binomial Method to calculate YINSON-WA fair value.

Then I bought some YINSON-WA at 0.665 before lunch just now.



Stock

2023-03-08 11:18 | Report Abuse

Fund managers in general is not keen to pay dividend or share buy back.
Because in both cases, there would be a certain amount of money flowing out from the funds.
The fund NAV would reduce and of course management fees would also reduce.

ICAP has so far paid dividend for 2 times:
1) To avoid tax credits burnt.
2) To help out shareholders affected by Covid.

If we want to receive good dividend, better invest in other companies which the management remunerations would not be affected by dividend payout.

Stock

2023-03-08 10:22 | Report Abuse

........if the company declares a $1 dividend with an option to reinvest that $1 into shares at market price, which would you choose? If the latter, this is equivalent to the company buying back its own shares, which is what you would be doing, by reinvesting.........

dumbMoney,
I refer to your above statement, I assume you are talking about DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)
My opinion:
1) If all shareholders choose to receive Cash and refuse to reinvest / exercise DRIP, that is Cash Dividend, a certain amount of Cash flow out from the company.
2) If all shareholders choose to exercise DRIP, then it is just a mini scale of bonus issue, there is no Cash flow out from the company.



Stock

2023-03-07 10:37 | Report Abuse

prudentinvestor,

Correct, that is why even though HLFG is better in term of valuation,
MAYBANK is still my better alternative.

Anyway, I do not expect MAYBANK could give me high return,
I will be happy if I could get around 6% in return.

Stock

2023-03-07 09:15 | Report Abuse

Speakup,

These kind of talks by the government, will chase away foreign funds.

Stock

2023-03-02 10:37 | Report Abuse

Why is INSAS-WC trading at a price much higher than Fair Value?
My understanding is the speculators believe that:
1) INSAS has chance to shoot through the Roof.
2) Most probably INSAS would remain undervalued.

Therefore they might as well pay a small amount on INSAS-WC, to bet for the best, just like buy 4D.

Stock

2023-03-01 17:40 | Report Abuse

i3lurker

I input:
1) INSAS = 0.77
2) Dividend 2.5 sen x 3 for the next 3 years
3) Interest Rate = 5%

Then if :
4a) INSAS Volatility = 15%, WC fair value = 4.40 sen
4b) INSAS Volatility = 20%, WC fair value = 6.67 sen
4c) INSAS Volatility = 30%, WC fair value = 11.58 sen

I checked INSAS's 90 days historical Volatility, it was around 15% only.
My opinion, INSAS-WC is expensive.

Stock

2023-03-01 13:05 | Report Abuse

Price = 0.77
Market Cap = 0.77*663.02 = 511m
Total Liabilities = 516m
Bank Deposits + Cash = 752.4 + 153.9 = 906m

Assuming all assets (except 537m INARI shares and bank Deposits/Cash) are worthless,
EV for INARI shares = 511 + 516 - 906 = 121m

EV / INARI shares = 121 / 537 = RM0.225 / INARI share.
Very Funny, Not even 10% of INARI market price.
Too Good to be true.

Stock

2023-02-21 12:02 | Report Abuse

@joerakmo,
The market price for Sabah oil palm estate is around 80K / ha.
Can refer to a few transactions announced in bursamalaysia.com,
For example KIMLOONG bought at 80K.


Stock

2023-02-19 13:04 | Report Abuse

@dumpMoney
I also think 2.50 is acceptable for ICAP.



Stock

2023-02-19 08:38 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/savemalaysia/2023-01-04-story-h-301980358-Undervalued_small_and_medium_cap_plantation_firms_potential_M_A_targets

Privatisation, let see ICAP or HSPLANT go private / take-over first.

In the above article, Maybank IB said a notable privatisation candidate is Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, as it trades at an attractive EV of RM33,255 per planted hectare, a P/BV of 0.81 times, and with net cash of 54 sen per share.

In investing we must 以小人之心度君子之腹,meaning we must use bad mindset to judge good person.

HAPSENG boss is too far richer, less chance to swindle money from HSPLANT.



Stock

2023-02-14 08:30 | Report Abuse

If a counter is liquid, many investment banks would produce analysis reports on it.
I could not find any report on ICAP here in i3.

Stock

2023-02-08 08:27 | Report Abuse

Sorry Boss,
The DY=(6.08*90%+3.14)/160=5.4%,
as 3.14 sen is non-taxable / tax exempt.