i3gambler

i3gambler | Joined since 2016-05-03

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Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

Sorry, it is written in Chinese.
I copy from my facebook posting.

冷眼大师在他的书“股票投资正道”的“股票伴我老”中提到。。。
时间点应该是2011年。。。

他说以1.00的股价买入8000股CEPAT。。。
既是花8000就能间接拥有了一英亩油棕园。。。
他是直接把公司市值除于25000英亩油棕园而算出8000的。。。
而当时油棕园的市价是一英亩20000。。。
所以买CEPAT股票更划算。。。

11年过去了。。。
现在CEPAT的股价是0.70。。。
但是它曾经有发“2给1”的红股。。。
所以当年的1.00其实是等于现在的0.667。。。
11年间,股价从0.667涨至0.70,惨不忍睹。。。
再加上一点点的股息。。。
每年的总回酬率才三点多巴仙。。。

现在沙巴油棕园的市价是每公顷80000,等于一英亩约32000。。。
现在马后炮,当年买油棕园比买CEPAT更划算。。。

那么,现在应该买CEPAT股票或者直接买油棕园呢???
这些年来,CEPAT的财务表是更好看了。。。
单单Current Assets就已经高过Total Liabilities。。。
而且公司又多了12MW Biomass和4MWBiogas发电。。。
签有合约卖电给沙巴电力公司。。。
这是稳定收入,尤其当棕油价钱低迷时更重要。。。

其实,我们不应该直接把公司市值除于公司油棕园的。。。
应该先算,
市值+Total Liabilities - Current Assets - 发电厂等等。。。
才来除于公司的油棕园。。。
那就算到每公顷16652或每英亩6739。。。

11年前,每英亩8000对20000。。。
现在是每英亩6739对32000。。。
看起来CEPAT是更诱人了。。。

冷眼大师是无牌的,我也是无牌的。。。
都不能给买卖建议。。。
大家买卖之前先问股票证卷行和分析师的意见。。。
买卖自负。。。

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

It is just how you call it.
Investment banks do provide price targets.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

With good profit, the balance sheet improve further,
Therefore, EV / planted ha reduce further to = RM46,213 / planted ha.

Calculate the other way round, suppose the planted estate worth RM80,000 / planted ha,
Then the fair price of HSPLANT = RM3.75,
Fair price / market price = 3.75 / 2.23 = 168%.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

I expect EPS for 2nd Q = 9.6 sen, excluding any one off gain / loss.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

On 21 Feb 2020, KMLOONG provide Basis of and Justification for the Purchase Prices.

1) Boustead Rimba Nilai Sdn Bhd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Boustead Plantations Berhad, had on 1 August 2018 entered into a sale and purchase agreement for the acquisition of oil palm plantation lands
comprising 17 land titles measuring a total of 12,144.99 acres in Districts of Beluran, Kinabatangan, and Labuk & Sugut, Sabah together with a palm oil mill and buildings erected thereon as well as moveable assets, machineries and vehicles for a consideration of RM397 million. The location of the 17 pieces of land are scattered and not in one location. More than half of the oil palm planted on the land are old mature tree and need to be replanted. The market value for the plantation land excluding the mill is RM348.3 million as at 1 July 2018 or approximately RM28,678.49 per acre.

2) Pontian United Plantations Berhad, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Berhad, had on 8 June 2015 entered into a sale and purchase agreement for the acquisition of, amongst
others, a piece of oil palm plantation land located in the District of Beluran, Sabah measuring approximately 2,066.05 acres for a consideration of RM71,720,000.00, that is approximately RM34,713.00 per acre.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

In February 2020, that time FCPO was around 2500 - 2700.
KMLOONG announced that they were buying 5 pieces of Land in Sabah.
The purchase was completed in May 2022 for 4 pieces, and 1 piece was terminated.
The price per Land Area was 80000 / ha.
The price per Planted Area was 84500 / ha.

My opinions, for Sabah based plantation companies, if
1) The boss can be trusted and the company is properly managed.
2) The balance sheet is reasonably OK, not too much debts.
3) Dividend Yield not less than 2%.
4) EV / Planted Area is lower than 60000/ha.

Can buy some shares lor.

For apartment, we expect higher rental yield, may be 5%.
But for landed house, we expect lower rental yield, may be 2% as we expect the land will appreciate.
Same to stock investment, we expect lower dividend yield from plantation companies..

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

What banks have is mostly money, money will depreciate by time.
Of course they own their headquarter and may be a few other buildings.
So, if you want to go for banking sectors, why not consider Singapore banks?

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

My way of evaluating plantation companies,
by comparing EV (enterprise value) of their planted oil palm estates.

My formula may be a bit different from others.
EV = market cap + total liabilities - current assets - other non-related business.

For TSH,
EV = 2214m
Planted oil palm estate = 42,495 ha, 15% in Sabah, 85% in Indonesia.
Therefore, EV / ha = RM52,111 / ha

For HSPLANT,
EV = 1761m
Planted oil palm estate = 35,434 ha, 100% in Sabah,
Therefore, EV / ha = RM49,708 / ha

As I know, the market price for planted oil palm estate in Sabah is around RM80,000.
So HSPLANT is cheap.
But for Indonesia, I do not know the market price / ha.
It is better not to take risk, I think HSPLANT is the better choice.

One more important thing,
HSPLANT has a 60% dividend policy,
I estimate the EPS this year would be 36 sen, or dividend = 60%*36 sen = 21.6 sen.
Meaning after collecting the 21.6 sen dividend, the EV / ha would be even cheaper.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

My way of evaluating plantation companies,
by comparing EV (enterprise value) of their planted oil palm estates.

My formula may be a bit different from others.
EV = market cap + total liabilities - current assets - other non-related business.

For TSH,
EV = 2214m
Planted oil palm estate = 42,495 ha, 15% in Sabah, 85% in Indonesia.
Therefore, EV / ha = RM52,111 / ha

For HSPLANT,
EV = 1761m
Planted oil palm estate = 35,434 ha, 100% in Sabah,
Therefore, EV / ha = RM49,708 / ha

As I know, the market price for planted oil palm estate in Sabah is around RM80,000.
So HSPLANT is cheap.
But for Indonesia, I do not know the market price / ha.
It is better not to take risk, I think HSPLANT is the better choice.

One more important thing,
HSPLANT has a 60% dividend policy,
I estimate the EPS this year would be 36 sen, or 60%*36 sen = 21.6 sen.
Meaning after collecting the 21.6 sen dividend, the EV / ha would be even cheaper.







News & Blogs

2 months ago | Report Abuse

True, SIMEPLT value is in its estate land,
However, I think may be 200K / acre is only for those small piece of land very near to town.
I might buy SIMEPLT if it goes down below RM3.50.

For larger piece of estate land, eg. United Malacca sold 1021 ha Freehold (Melaka / N.Sembilan) at 171,000 / ha only.

News & Blogs

2 months ago | Report Abuse

For any business:
1) High profit margin would not be maintained for long period.
2) Narrow (and loss) profit margin, would also not last for long time, unless such business is no longer needed.

Calvin is correct, no doubt plantation high profit margin could last a bit longer compare to glove.

As the price is coming down, we need to look at 'biological assets' in the quarterly reports.
Especially to those companies which have high ratio of = FFB production / Market Cap.
In general, plantation companies with high debt, and those small companies have very high FFB / M.Cap ratio.

When the palm oil price went up, biological assets also went up, contributed significantly to the net profit.
Now the price is coming down, the biological assets come down too, will cause the quarterly result look very bad.

Considering this point, I have sold all my SWKPLNT, and buy more BKAWAN.

News & Blogs

2 months ago | Report Abuse

I believe big profit margin of any business will not last for long.
Same to loss making (price below of cost) also will not last long, unless we no longer need that product.

That was why when I evaluate plantation companies, I predict the price will soon converge to 10 years average (net of cost increment).



News & Blogs

2022-06-22 13:08 | Report Abuse

At this moment,
US Soybean Oil =72 cents / lb
USD / MYR = 4.40

In RM / mT = 0.72 * 2204 * 4.40 = 6982 RM / mT.

However historically palm oil was 15% discount to Soybean Oil,
Therefore Fair CPO price = 0.85 * 6982 = RM5935,

The current CPO down trend is due to Indonesia.

News & Blogs

2022-06-21 09:02 | Report Abuse

By 31.03.2027
My prediction is that CPO will be around the current 10 years average (Net of Cost Inflation), i.e. 2800.

The meaning of Net of Cost Inflation is that,
If the cost in 2027 is x% higher than now,
Then the actual CPO would be (1+x%)*2800 in 2027.

BKAWAN and SWKPLNT would be the cheapest now and also in 2027.

I give different fair PE Ratio for the following reasons:

1) 12 times for BKAWAN,
Excellent management,
But fund managers are not interested to invest, as the trading volume is low,
Difficult for Fund managers to buy and sell.

2) 20 times for KLK,
Excellent management.

3) 25 times for SIMEPLT,
Biggest plantation company and own big estate lands in Peninsula.

4) 12 times for SWKPLNT,
Small company,
Pay good dividend,
Excellent management from TAANN,
Sarawak Government might help to get Indonesia worker,

5) 15 times for TAANN,
Mid Cap company,
Pay Good dividend
Excellent management,
There are fund managers interested to invest in this company.


News & Blogs

2022-06-20 12:19 | Report Abuse

True, the value of SIMEPLT is in its estate lands in Peninsula,
That is why I give fair PE of 25 times to SIMEPLT versus KLK's 20 times.

News & Blogs

2022-06-20 11:28 | Report Abuse

Aiya, look like CPO will plunge faster than what I have predicted earlier.

News & Blogs

2022-06-10 12:57 | Report Abuse

When paying dividend, what happen to:
1) The company: An amount of cash money flowing out.
2) The shareholder: Receiving cash money.

When buying back shares, what happen to:
1) The company: An amount of cash money flowing out.
2) The shareholder: No change in number of shares but ownership become higher in term of percentage.

The case of TOPGLOV.
1) Spent 1.42b to buy back 200m shares over the 5 months span, or about 2.5% of total o/s shares.
2) If you hold 100,000 shares and you do not agree with the company on share buy back.
3) Then you could have sold 2.5% or 2500 shares and received around RM17,750.
4) That RM17,750 become kind of dividend, and you maintain the same ownership in term of percentage.

So, to me, Share Buy Back is kind of dividend payment.

News & Blogs

2022-06-02 16:47 | Report Abuse

KYY said the company sold forward its refined products and then the crude oil shot up.
Wondering why can't the company buy crude oil at the same time they sell forward its refined products?

News & Blogs

2022-06-02 16:45 | Report Abuse

KYY said the company sold forward its refined products and then the crude oil shot up.
Wondering why can't the company buy crude oil at the same time they sell forward its refined products?

News & Blogs

2022-05-31 10:48 | Report Abuse

skoh888,

My way of valuation.
I copy the market FCPO prices, AUG 2022 to FEB 2023, to my spreadsheet.

But for MAR 2023 and beyond,
I do not take the market prices because sometime the volume is thin, and therefore not meaningful.
What I do is to apply a formula so that from MAR 2023, the prices would converge to 10 years average price.

The latest 10 years average CPO price is RM2761, no need to adjust to inflation, as my calculation is also assume the production cost remain the same.

Now we can estimate the EPS for the next 5 years (20 quarters),
Discount all the future EPSs back to today by a rate.
Then the furthest quarterly EPS x 4, will be multiply with reasonable PE ratio, again discount it back to today.
I prefer PE Ratio for: BKAWAN=12, KLK=20, SWKPLNT=12, TAANN=15, SIMEPLT=25

Sum up all the above and there I get the today's fair value for the companies.

News & Blogs

2022-05-30 14:20 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
If I did not make money from call warrants and future index,
I would have died from hunger many years ago, so no need blessing from you.

News & Blogs

2022-05-30 14:05 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
True, I am jobless for more than 10 years already.
My "full time job" now is trading call warrants and future index.
So, no need another job.

News & Blogs

2022-05-30 13:13 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
skoh888 in his post have explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities".
The Youtube video link that I put here also explain IBs would not earn money that way.
What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them?
What an arrogant person you are.
Telling what financial theory?
You are joker?

News & Blogs

2022-05-30 13:04 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
I don't even leave a comment here, why did you want to mention me here?
skoh888 have also explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities".
The Youtube video link that I put to Calvin post also explain IBs would not earn money that way.
What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them?
What an arrogant person you are.
Telling what financial theory?
You are joker?


News & Blogs

2022-05-30 08:26 | Report Abuse

Calvin,

You said "After IB banks have bought enough glove shares to hedge then only glove bull run resumed"

If what you said is from reliable sources, they should have learned the painful lesson, the big bosses should have scolded the managers and from then on they would buy mother shares immediately to hedge against any call warrants that they sell. Logically the history will not repeat so soon on plantation counters.

And myself believe that from the very beginning, the Issuers want "Sure Win" and "Kia-Su", they immediately hedge against any call warrants that they sell.

Sell Call Warrant without hedging or so-called Sell Naked is subject to unlimited losses.



News & Blogs

2022-05-29 15:39 | Report Abuse

If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares?
It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid?
Hey wait, it makes no sense....

No, you will not get any mother share.
They will calculate the 5 days average price of SIMEPLT,
Let say the average is 5.1234,
Then (5.1234-4.50)/10 = 0.06234,
Then 10000*0.06234=623.40,
A few days after Expiry, your account will be credited with RM623.40.

If the average price is lower then 4.50, then you will not receive any money.

News & Blogs

2022-05-29 15:31 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

Input:
1) Dividend Yield = 0%, as there will be no dividend from now to Expiry.
2) Historical Volatility, 35% to 42%, I use 40%
3) Interest Rate, I use 4%.
4) Expiry, I use the 3rd settlement day, 24th June 2022.

My calculation show that the fair value for SIMEPLT-C2 is 0.0597.

May be you can read my post, SUNWAY-WB.

News & Blogs

2022-05-29 15:14 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

1) They calculate the Historical Volatility (HV), let say it is 20%,
2) Apply a factor of, say for example 1.25, it is 20%*1.25=25%,
3) This 25% become Implied Volatility (IV)
4) Input 25% to Fair Value Calculator, and let say they get the Fair Value is 60 sen,
5) Then they set the ratio as 4, the issue price will be 60 sen / 4 = 15 sen.
6) After listing, they set market making, Buy at 15.0 sen and Sell at 15.5 sen,
7) The Spread 0.5 sen, that is 3.3%, and is their profit,
8) If the price go down to 10 sen, then 0.5 / 10, that is 5%, higher profit,
9) If the price go up, they can set buy / sell spread to 1.0 sen to maintain the profit margin,
10) But the problem is when the price go up further, let say to 50 sen,
11) They can set market making buy 50.0 and sell 52 sen,
12) But I can jump Q to buy 50.5 sen , or the person who have that CW can jump Q to sell at 51.5,
13) Then Issuer can not maintain their profit.

News & Blogs

2022-05-29 12:45 | Report Abuse

My understanding of how the IBs manage call warrants business, take example of KLK-C14.
1) Let say Monday, some one buy 300,000 KLK-C14 from Issuer,
2) As the No of KLK-C14 not held by Issuer increase by 300,000, Issuer will immediately go and buy 20000 KLK.
3) 10 minutes later, if another guy sell 150,000 KLK-C14 to Issuer, the Issuer will go and sell 10000 KLK.
4) This will continue until before the 5 settlement days.
5) Then the Issuer will dispose slowly their mother share holding in that 5 settlement days.
6) Sure win for IBs, no need to manipulate the market.


News & Blogs

2022-05-29 09:39 | Report Abuse

Calvin,
With what basis did you come out with 7m mother share vs 200m CW?

Look at 27th May Trading,
The most active traded call warrants for KLK was KLK-C14.
Go to bursamalaysia.com and read CIMB monthly issuers's announcement for the month of April.
Total Issue Size of KLK-C14 is 150,000,000,
However, No. of KLK-C14 not held by CIMB on End April (meaning out in the market) was only 661,200 units.
The conversion ratio of KLK-C14 is 15, meaning 661200 / 15 = 44080 mother share.
This 44080 units is chicken feed compare to KLK volume 1,778,000 on Friday.
I do not think it is worth for CIMB to manipulate.

One guy from one Investment Bank told me that trading volume is one of the criteria set by Bursa (or SC?).
They can not get approval to issue structured warrant on mother share which are not actively traded.

News & Blogs

2022-05-29 08:35 | Report Abuse

How that Dividend Yield 3% and Interest Rate 4% affect the Fair Value?
1) The Calculation would expect 4% IRR (weighted average) for investing in SUNWAY mother share.
2) 3% from Dividend and 1% (4% - 3%) from Capital Gain.
3) Calculation is base on both SUNWAY and SUNWAY-WB should have the same weighted average IRR of 4%.
4) Therefore, SUNWAY-WB Fair Value at Expiry will be discounted by 4% p.a. back to Today's Fair Value.
5) This is how the Fair Value RM0.415 is calculated.

News & Blogs

2022-05-28 19:01 | Report Abuse

The Issuers do not want the mother shares to go down.
In fact they want the mother share to go up, the higher the better.

They are not gambler, they want sure win.
The time they sell call warrants, there are mother shares in their hand to hedge against it.

Please ask some one who has worked in Investment Banks.

News & Blogs

2022-05-28 15:24 | Report Abuse

The actual Expiry is 03.10.2024.
However, most investors do not like the troublesome of physical conversion.
So, in most cases the company warrants will trade at no premium when it come near to Expiry.
Therefore I assume the Expiry is 3 months earlier at 03.07.2024.

News & Blogs

2022-05-28 15:17 | Report Abuse

The exercise price: A fixed annual step-down of RM0.07 per year on each of the anniversary dates
1) From 04.10.2021 to 03.10.2022, = RM1.49
2) From 04.10.2022 to 03.10.2023, = RM1.42
3) From 04.10.2023 to 03.10.2024, = RM1.35

News & Blogs

2022-05-03 08:51 | Report Abuse

When an unitholder asked TTB in AGM why the fund bought KLK instead of BKAWAN, his answer was "Exit Strategy", meaning can dispose faster lor.

I read from Investopidea, to me the reasons given to justify conglomerate discount are all rubbish.

Furthermore, conglomerate discount is not applicable to BKAWAN/KLK lor, because BKAWAN's other profit is only 0.1752, only 6% of its total profit mah.

BKAWAN is KLK, KLK is BKAWAN lor.

Don't like this BKAWAN/KLK example, then tell me why SIMEPLT/KLK/IOICORPs' PE is relatively much higher than those smaller size plantation companies.





News & Blogs

2022-05-02 14:32 | Report Abuse

COMPANY SIZE and TRADING VOLUME VERY MUCH MATTER.

When you own 1 BKAWAN, indirectly you get 1*B = 1.3*KLK + X,
where X is BKAWAN's other small business.

Look at their last financial year EPS,
BKAWAN's EPS=RM2.8961, KLK's EPS=RM2.0930,

Fit into the above 1*B = 1.3* KLK + X,
X = 2.8961 - 1.3 * 2.0930 = 0.1752,
Meaning BKAWAN other small business also contribute small profit.

Now, base on last Friday Closing, B = RM29.12 and K = RM29.46.

Look at FY2021 PE Ratio,
BKAWAN's PE = 29.12 / 2.8961 = 10.01 times,
KLK's PE = 29.46 / 2.0930 = 14.08 times,

Look at FY2021 Dividend Yield,
BKAWAN's DY = 1.10 / 29.12 = 3.78%,
KLK's DY = 1.00 / 29.46 = 3.39%,

Why fund managers (EPF, ASB etc) invest in KLK but not BKAWAN?
The answer is COMPANY SIZE and TRADING VOLUME VERY MUCH MATTER.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 17:31 | Report Abuse

Aiyo, you look at my chart,
Early 2008, the FCPO was 4000, one year later it drop to 1500,
Then Early 2011, went up to almost 4000,
Then 2015 and 2019, went down to 2000,
So, anything can happen lor.

I repeat again and again,
My calculation is with assumption that the cost remain the same for the next 5 years, and the 2761 is also net of inflation. It make calculation easier.

If I were to consider inflation, then both the cost and the 10 years average 2761 also need to adjust.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 15:02 | Report Abuse

Still don't understand meh?
Assume cost remain the same, that is why I use 10 years average which is net of inflation.

If I were to consider inflation of x% per year, then the 2761 need to multiply with (1+x%) ^5.
Then how lei, use what x%?
You and I both also don't know how much is x%.

If you don't know how much x%, how do you know 4200 is sustainable or not?

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 14:29 | Report Abuse

Aiya, in estimation, we should assume no inflation.
What if 5 years later the MYR/USD=4.3*2=4.6, then your 4200 become too low liao, maybe BKAWAN also no profit liao.
But in my calculation, the price 2761*2=5522, still have profit lor.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 14:13 | Report Abuse

We can't predict inflation.
In my estimation, the cost remain the same for the next 5 years.
In another word, the 2761 is net of inflation.
Meaning if 5 years later the cost is 500 higher than today's cost, then the FCPO will be 2761+500=3261.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 13:31 | Report Abuse

Aiya, you don't read properly or you don't understand?
I said fair PE at the furthest month which is 5 years later, when the FCPO is almost at the 10 years average=2761.

I ask you,
a) 15 PE when FCPO at 2761, or
b) 11 PE when FCPO at 4200.
Which one will give lower/safer valuation for BKAWAN.

Seriously, I don't think FCPO will stay long at 4200.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 12:32 | Report Abuse

The fair PE ratio I apply:
1) 20 for KLK, big and very well managed company.
2) 15 for BKAWAN, a better choice than KLK, can keep until we die, but funds don't like small trading volume.
3) 25 for SIMEPLT, big freehold land in Peninsula, owned by ASB.
4) 15 for SWKPLNT, well managed and good dividend, improvement still ongoing since 2018.
5) 15 for TAANN, well managed and good dividend.

News & Blogs

2022-05-01 12:05 | Report Abuse

The discount rate that I use for Present Value is 8%. I think it is already very conservative.

News & Blogs

2022-04-26 11:07 | Report Abuse

The most active traded FCPO is 2 or 3 months from current month.
Example, on 15th April, most active traded month is June, on 16th April, most active traded month is July.
If the companies (big companies) sell their CPO to the most active month prices,
Then this coming Q1-2022 result will not be better than Q4-2021, but the next Q2-2022 will be very good, much better than Q4-2021 and Q1-2022.

However, most small companies sell at spot price, which I do not monitor, so I dun know.

News & Blogs

2022-04-20 07:47 | Report Abuse

Should change 'M.Cap/Ha' to '(M.Cap+T.Debt-C.Asset)/Ha'.
If your dun know the management very well, dun buy those small companies that pay very little dividend.

News & Blogs

2022-04-15 08:32 | Report Abuse

8888_
FGV is a special case, most of the land owned by Felda, FGV has to pay fixed amount and profit sharing to Felda.

Stock

2022-04-14 19:48 | Report Abuse

Good Dividend 5.9 sen.
Up up up.

News & Blogs

2022-04-11 17:13 | Report Abuse

If someone like DickyMe is good in predicting future CPO prices, my congratulation to him.
Just short FCPO and he will be making tons of money.