Logic Trading Analysis
IRIS - Ace Market Super Star Rising
Logic Trading Analysis
Publish date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014, 09:46 PM
Not just TA or FA analysis, Logic Analysis will show more magic in Bursa Malaysia Stocks !
Good day everyone, if you missed my previous post, I hope you not missed this again. IRIS Berhad will definitely a hot ace market super star in coming weeks. Everyone in stock market should know about IRIS or at least see IRIS appear in most active trading page right?
First of all, before I share some of my logic trading analysis on IRIS, at least you should know what is IRIS Berhad doing. I believe most of the people have a bad perception on IRIS or think IRIS is a penny stock, and fried stock. Many people trap in IRIS many years ago, but today, I want to tell you, my logic tells IRIS have changes to a strong and a potential Ace Market Super Star in coming days. Why?
Many years back, IRIS was a small IT company but recently years they have expand to a diversify company which brings IRIS back into Profitable company and getting stronger in the diversify business field. You can see they are doing green technology, and building house with KOTO technology (cheap and super fast building method, some at Malaysia) at Papua New Guinea, even education recently. I may not want to get into too detail of their business, you can look at their 2014 annual report here for more details. CLICK HERE <---
Lets look at how IRIS stock price movement first. If you look at the chart, IRIS begin rally on January 2014, why? Logic say its all because The Ministry of Finance have open tender for Tourist Tax Refund Scheme to 4 Company in Malaysia, and IRIS is one of the bidder. Refer Here <--
With this news announced, IRIS and rival competitor(Mpay) share price raise pretty much from 0.2 to 0.615 highest. And of course due to a long long waiting, investor have forgot and start worry whether IRIS secure the project or not, which we see the price start fall down. Just until recently share price start picking up with volume ! Logic tells, its a pre-plan shares collection for big players and insider because TRS project is a huge potential for company future growth !!
(you can see how MPAY thirsty for it, they have immediately gain investor become a huge stake holder just for bid this project, but sorry to say, its belong to IRIS now !)
Another factor cause IRIS share price to fall is their profit suddenly turn red for last quarter. Well, for me its a very small issue because We can see that the revenue is still maintain well, and most probably some of their investment and business not yet ready for profit. I don't like to comment in details because those information you can find from other places. I focus on my logic trading analysis. Its probably to put a red quarter result to make investor cut loss and sell. But its seems the share price not falling way back to 0.20 since rally, its mean that is just a trick from the company !
If you are so much worry about the other business of IRIS Berhad can sustain or not, its much more easy to read their last quarter result and you will see how positive they think on their coming business year !!
Lets back focus on the why its time for IRIS to be a hot super star. Its because they get the Tourist Refund Scheme tender !! Look at the details of letter of awards from Kastam Diraja Malaysia. When you look at the LOA, you might be a bit blur and not sure what it mean.
Refer what the boss say here: (latest) <--
Iris and foreign partner (Global Blue) will invest RM 155,09200.00 for this TRS project and get 15% commission from GST REFUND SERVICES (its 6% refund) and IRIS get 15% from it <--
It could be total GST refund from foreigner and IRIS get 15% !!
Small investment and big return !! WHY ? Read below
Just look at how big is the tourism contribution pass few years. I am very sure this TRS project owned by IRIS Berhad is something very very super good news to them.
Have a simple calculation based on year 2013:
65.44 Bil (65,440,000,000) x 6% = 3,926,400,000. Its 3.9 Bil !
3.9 Bil (3,926,400,000) x 15% = 588,960,000. Its 588 Million !
IRIS 51% and Global Blue Company 41% = IRIS get RM 299.88 Mil a year !!
Which is 10 time more than their current annual income !!!
And IRIS partner for TRS project is a powerful company as well !! Because they dealing with the recently world largest IPO ALIBABA GROUP !! You can research more what this group doing with Alibaba. And once this groups success enter into Malaysia, for sure its mean its have high potential Alibaba business will be related to them soon ! You should know all company got a mini relationship with ALIBABA is fly sky rocket - EFFICIENT, GDEX, GHLSYS.
After so much quick info, my logic analysis tell me, IRIS Berhad is a must buy counter.
Price still cheap, not yet reach previous high at 0.615.
1. IRIS after get TRS project, they are a super star now.
2. In coming years they are high potential switch to mainboard, usually will fried much higher when can go to mainboard, refer OCK, SMRT, REDTONE, MMODE, GDEX many more.
3. Its very cheap counter.
4. Its super growth mode counter.
5. Its have no reason to ignore this counter.
6. They might got chance to deal with ALIBABA
7. TA investment give a TP of 0.675 before they get TRS project ! Refer here: <---
My first TP 0.455 , second TP 0.50, third TP 0.615. After reach all the TP, it will become RM 1 and above!
More other stock refer to : http://bursalogicanalysis.blogspot.com/
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 36 of 36 comments
It appears to me that Iris is working out an ascending triangle. Such patterns are bullish. In this case this triangle is a reversal triangle rather than a continuous one.
2014-09-23 08:53
no need to hurry..surely hold until rm1...when iris support by gov...u will see the sun ahead
2014-09-23 11:03
everyone dont forget if USD up, its help iris business too :)
2014-09-23 11:26
raymondanoh What a good counter, will buy some for my children to inherit.
23/09/2014 21:58
the contract does not last forever. its only a period of 3yrs... so you should review it as well
2014-09-24 00:51
godspeed, have you see custom change their e passport and other custom solution change to other company? such things once implement its required some cost to developed and people do working on it, imagine the stuff train to collect gst fund, tiba tiba change company and fire all stuff. no joke man..without any big issue custom will not simply change other company do. So it can almost consider as a long long term contract already :).
2014-09-24 01:15
iris have come long way and long relationship with government. listen to the boss speaking.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bfm_podcast/53176.jsp
2014-09-24 01:42
http://www.gstmalaysia.org/touristrefund/ Please have a look on this website! No doubt the amount generated from tourism is over RM 65 billion but how much subject to refund? The website speak itself only goods taken out with you when you leave Malaysia subject to refund!It does not apply to services (car hire, accommodation, tours etc) or goods consumed or partly consumed in Malaysia such as drinks, chocolates or perfume. Consumable goods must e.g. drinks, chocolate and so on must not be consumed before you leave Malaysia. So the revenue to iris still can be that high? Btw as Iris had control more than 51% of the company it can include all the revenue into its income statement and deduct the portion of profit not belong to iris through minority interest in income statement.
2014-09-24 18:11
well, you don have to worry about trs generate how much revenue. its consider as an extra bonus to iris earning, they have others business. and not to forget that if iris manage to grab such project, they might able to grabs more similar project. another things is their partner have relationship dealing with alibaba. next time high chance online sales at malaysia also need gst refund, and it will manage by them as well. online sales will be another big income. iris long term, for sure good deal. they doing right thing at right timing. green tech, housing and others. :)
2014-09-24 19:21
OptimusM kindergarten "research", if u call cut n paste as research...
pengsan.
23/09/2014 21:40
this kindergarten cut n paste so called analysis has bring many newbies to ho ho ho ho ho
lan.
2014-09-24 21:54
Logic trading, i always have 1 thing in mind. "No one is irreplaceable in a company".
Lets look at Apple, they still manage to launch new products and business as usual for Apple even without stevejobs.
in the business world there's always someone who is capable of taking over. lets just look at Europe. the moment they have an economic crisis, there's always somebody there to say " I have a plan, but everyone must follow." so does another fella came up and implemented.
never worries about businesses that no one can handle. everything is replaceable. even a CEO,Prime Minister, KeyMan you name it.
2014-09-24 23:34
not forgetting in malaysia, if there's something big, the cronies wants a share, if you give them, they'll be quiet. if you dont. it will be like our Robert Kuok.
not have a change in the system or company or any of it. but it never means never. not the right time yet. sooner or later someone will.
2014-09-24 23:38
iris is already a well example of government related counter. so it cant be easily replace unless the government have big reshuffle. my rule 3 :
3. Logic trading not mean to trade "logically" but its also can be illogical. It have to apply flexibly and changes quickly to favor the market and stocks movement.
if iris have gone bad and all project have snatch by others.. why still consider to hold or buy?
2014-09-25 00:03
exactly. well said Logic trading.
im look at the weaknesses just to minimize my risk. simple as that. negatives is always good. too much of positive or obsessions will bring you into possessions. when you are possessed with the stock of over positive, we will definitely be bias. Bias in stocks investment is deadly
2014-09-25 00:20
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ImCK
Iris is hidden gem based on thier technology potential & market demand .
i would like to buy thier future . this is only 1 company in bursa market
doing country goverment business which require high reliable & leading technology .
2014-09-22 22:49