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So, let’s look at how US S&P500 fare when it down more than 1% on the 1st day of the year. (Credit to Ryan Detrick)

It looks volatile with slightly positive average annual return and 54% chance of closing the year higher. Nothing conclusive I would say.

But bear in mind, the last two bear markets started with down day of more than 1%. (no pun intended)

For short term, watch how the US market reacts for the next few days and how fast it can recover yesterday losses, else it is just a dead cat bounce.