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Examining The Health Of The US Stock Market

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Publish date: Sat, 09 Jan 2016, 07:04 PM
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Let's examining the health of the US Stock Market through long term charts after US market having the worst start of  year.

Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature.

- Legendary hedge fund manager, Bruce Kovner

First, we noticed that the weekly S&P 500 chart started to show some signs of weakness. In order for the market to be in an uptrend, the price need to stay above the pink moving average (MA) and with our proprietary signal candle in blue and green colors. But, this week the candle closed in red color and below the MA.

All the previous downtrend (year 2000 and 2007) started with red candles and below MA.

The price need to recapture and close above the moving average at 2025.7, or risk turning into a downtrend or a bear market.

 

Next, we look at the monthly chart, which is a longer term chart whereby the candle is still in progress. We noted that red candles has formed few months back. Further more, the price is currently trading below the white 20 days MA. The S&P 500 must trade above the 20-day MA to stay in the bull market.

The monthly candle is not yet complete as we still have three trading weeks left to form the monthly candle. So, should the price close above 2027, then the market is back in business.

 
In short, S&P 500 must close above 2027 by this month end, else the market is in trouble.
 
 

 

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

mystockdeck

We need to see how it reacts near the resistance, but breaking the Aug low seems like a very high possibility now.

2016-01-09 21:21

zbaikitree2

Here's Goldman:

US equity upside: Limited by the ‘Yellen call’

We see limited upside to equities in 2016. Our US Portfolio Strategy team has a 2016 price target of 2,100 for the S&P 500, suggesting a very modest return of 5% (from current levels). Their framework assumes that 1) earnings per share will rise 10.1%, driven partly by ‘base effects’ in the energy sector and partly by improvements in global growth more generally, but that 2) the price-earnings multiple will fall approximately 5% (to 16.3x from 17.1x), as typically happens during rate-hike cycles. And, due to the delayed timing of rate hikes, the downside risk to price-earnings multiples is probably greater this year because the positive growth surprises that would normally accompany rate hikes are arguably behind us. Since our US GDP forecast envisions mild deceleration in 2016, equities and other risky assets will likely bear the brunt of rate hikes without the usual buffer of better growth data.

We also see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, inflation and market sentiment are skewed to the downside and the Fed has an easing bias, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news. The inflection point for this shift to an easing bias will arguably arrive in 2016, beyond which rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.

2016-01-10 00:13

zbaikitree2

and how powerful is Goldman?


read the below petition.


Tell Janet Yellen: No more Goldman Sachs at the Fed
Petition by Brian Kettenring

To be delivered to Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve leaders are supposed to represent the public, yet three key positions at the Federal Reserve have opened up this year and all three positions have been filled by former Goldman Sachs insiders. Tell Janet Yellen to say no to more Goldman insiders at the Fed.
There are currently 493 signatures. NEW goal - We need 500 signatures!

2016-01-10 00:14

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