南洋行家论股
英美烟草 私烟猖獗冲击盈利
目标价：28.29令吉
最新进展：
英美烟草（BAT，4162，主板消费产品股）截至6月杪次季，净利挫21.1%，报1亿1372万4000令吉；营业额年减9.2%；但仍宣布派息每股35仙。
累计首6个月，净利报2亿960万8000令吉，跌18.9%；营业额写13亿1679万5000令吉，跌幅12%。
行家建议：
由于去年末季以来，私烟市占率仍然高企，所以我们上调今年内私烟市占率预测，从59%上调到63%。
接着下修英美烟草2018和2019财年的盈利预测，分别为10.6%和12.3%。
私烟占了大马市占率63%，59%属走私，还有4%是本地生产的假税印的非法香烟。
因此英美烟草预计，短期内，为了避免非法烟市场加剧，政府不会上调烟草税。
而销售与服务税开跑后，该公司也预计，烟草业者的税率料跟随旧架构，即5%。
基于走私烟仍猖獗，我们维持英美烟草“卖出”评级和目标价格28.29令吉。
http://www.enanyang.my/news/20180721/英美烟草br-私烟猖獗冲击盈利/
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