Pauline Yong Blog
Correction Mode in the Stock Market
S&P 500: Looking at this chart, there is a bottom forming in August. As I said earlier, cyclical bottoms are months of Feb, May, Aug and Nov. If this low supercedes the previous low, then the whole picture of a bullish trend is in question, at least for the medium term. On the other hand, if this correction can stay above the 1890 level, then we shall see the next top above 2000 in October. In general, cyclical tops are: Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct, with accuracy of + or - one month.
KLCI Chart
STI Chart
STI & KLCI: are in the same boat as the US market which is forming a bottom in this August due to geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and Eastern Europe; the outbreak of Ebola disease in the African countries; and the earthquake and gas blasts in China and Taiwan. Investors are feeling very unease with these developments in the world that claimed thousands of people's lives.
Locally between Spore and Msia, we are concerned over the massive toll hikes at the causeway that may long term effects on the economies of both countries. Investors sentiments are dampened, Singaporeans who want to invest in the Iskandar will pull their hand brakes, transport related business suffered the biggest blow as their business cannot survive due to the new measures, Johor poultry and construction sector will suffer as their costs of doing business have gone up and if they pass on the cost to the end users in Singapore, in the long run, the Singaporean customers will turn to other neighbouring countries for alternate supplies.
The biggest hit would be the Johor property sector as in the past, the Singaporean investors accounted a big proportion in the sales of the residential and commercial properties in Johor Bahru. The Singapore government even encouraged their SME sector to relocate from the Jurong industrial estate to the Iskandar region to enjoy the low cost environment. However, the new measures will definitely cause some dampening effect on the relationship between the two countries.
In short, if we see low volume trading along with low prices, then this correction should be mild, with not more than 10% price correction.
On the palm oil, currently the price is US$703/metric ton, which is still about 5% from the target price mentioned in my previous article. In terms of time frame, in my previous post I mention the third quarter which is Jul - Sept. Hopefully, it will be bottoming either this month or next month.
Finally, I want to stress that there is no one person in the world can predict the market with 100% of accuracy including myself. What I'm sharing in my blog is for educational purpose. The work that I publish here are my own research. I treat myself as a new student and I'm still learning in this long journey in the financial world.
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 25 of 25 comments
Pauline your analysis is good to show the real picture of current situation.
2014-08-09 15:36
At the close of 1839, the KLCI Index broke the 200 day simple MA support at 1840. Please be watchful of this support. It bears watching because those who did not in 1998 and 2008 like this uncle met with disaster. Hehe ,,,,read more at http://shareinvestormalaysia.com/stock-market-sell-signal/
2014-08-09 16:40
Correction Mode in Bursa Is A Buy For Value Investors.
Why Buy Instead of Sell?
Reasons to Buy,
1) India, Thailand and Philippines Have Surged Recently. Bursa was the laggard. Especially Blue Chips have been under performing the Market.Since no Big Bubble there is no imminent bursting of bubble.
2) Foreign Monies Are Still Pouring into Malaysia.
China and HK Developers pumping in money to Malaysia. Aberdeen nibbling AEON, Peter Lim, Tycoon of Singapore (Remisier) Buying into TMC Life, Norwegian Fund bringing RM800 Millions into Bursa & Mark Mobius - Emerging Marget Guru also bullish on KLSE. Above all - Super Bear called Dr. Doom or Marc Faber holds Malaysian Shares for dividends.
The endorsement of Dr.Marc Faber speaks volumes. He predicted the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/8, the Crash of 87 & the Lehman Brothers' Debacle of 2007/8 accurately.
The fear of another impending downturn or crash has caused people to hide in Bank F/D at 3% to 3.25%.
Last year I bought a wooden door for my house renovation project. The cost was RM150, This year the price has gone up to RM170. Up RM20 or 13.3%.
So putting money into FD at 3% is a losing proposition. It cannot protect you from the ravages of inflation.
Millions of Middle Class who think that FD is safe is actually exposing themselves to the dilution of value through Money Printing.
3) Greenspan printed money. Bernanke printed more money from thin air. Will Yellen do the same at the sign of another crisis?
So there is really no real refuge to hide anywhere. A diversified portfolio of CASH, Bonds, Gold & Shares IS THE WAY TO GO.
2014-08-09 20:58
Actually, d only way to keep up with inflation n upkeep our std of living is be shareholder of fundamentally strong companies. That's d way to ride out bad times n prosper during good times. Money in bank really is devaluating every day.....
2014-08-09 21:11
the financial system now is punishing those who hold cash. wake up guys. wake up boys!
dont be a fool and put money in banks for big shark to use it to goreng stocks 500% to 1000% only return you 4%
2014-08-09 21:45
Last year I bought a wooden door for my house renovation project. The cost was RM150, This year the price has gone up to RM170. Up RM20 or 13.3%.
So putting money into FD at 3% is a losing proposition. It cannot protect you from the ravages of inflation.
=====================================================================
Exactly, buy a wooden door also better than put money in bank to earn the ciput 3%. Summore if touch within one year 3% lesap !!!
2014-08-09 21:53
Property investment used to give good returns. Since d new rpgt, property investment x attractive anymore. Share market, easy $, easy exit too. Easier than running own biz - headache everyday! Working for others - worst, forever cannot keep up with inflation. So, the winner is..... Investing in stock market! Good to dive in during correction period. Hold a while, reap a satisfactory return. Only thing is, must be able to sniff out really good stocks.
2014-08-09 22:01
Why would holding cash be stupid when everything is too expensive to buy, and when uve the opportunity to snap up cheap stocks when market crashes.
2014-08-09 22:06
ok, simple example.
chicken rice.....bungalow...klci......1 pack Malboro....kfc hourlywage
1980. rm1.20 ....200k...............? ..rm1.20..........rm4.00
1990, rm2.50.....800k..........1300 ....rm2.50..........rm3.80
2000, rm3.50.....1.5million....1300 ....rm6.00..........rm3.80
2010, rm4.50.....2.0million....1300 ? ..rm8.00..........rm4.00
2014, rm6.00.....8.0million....1800 ....rm12.00.........rm4.50
2020, rm10.00....15.0million...3000 ? ..rm20.00.........rm5.00
2014-08-09 22:07
JT Yeo, who says must hold 0 cash? Dun take things that literally la...How la buy chicken rice if no money?kikikk... Btw, I think market won't crash la. They forecast that every year. U google n check. But corrections happen all d time. If u really want to earn optimum bucks by waiting for real crashes, u may have to wait forever. Unless WW3 come tomorrow lol....
2014-08-09 22:41
Many of you are jumping the gun. Pauline Young didn't say crash only correction. No body can predict when the share market will crash, even Marc Faber said so. However, what I have been advised is to be extra careful in November. From now to November, markets throughout the world will get more violatile. It may be more advantageous to trade than to commit long term.
2014-08-10 03:17
just my 2 cents, my father worked as government servants (hospital senior staff) during 1980 an, his wage was RM 300 monthly. So it's impossible KFC hourly wage = RM 4 during that time.
2ndly, bungalow that time maybe 200k, but the bungalow that time wasn't same with today's luxury bungalow. Those so called bungalow was just a simple house.
2014-08-11 14:44
ok hanley. i can confirm to you in the 80 kfc hourly wage is rm4. please la in the 80's a proton already selling 25,000 and your father paid is 300 monthly, u better check.
and again, the bungalo was 200k and now 8 million u think ppls buy the bungalow for what? they demolish it and build a new one, all they wanted is the land.
dont read too much book ok? go see the real life happening.
2014-08-11 22:23
I tell u, if correction say 1wk many will thinking jump down kl tower ,,,me inc ......kikikiki
2014-08-15 16:16
people tend to treat the mkt like a casino instead of a place to invest in a real business. The mkt correction we had is testimony to this - gambling and speculating. In the end we all suffer. Stock investing should be treated like a business ....... http://shareinvestormalaysia.com/treat-stock-investing-like-business/
2014-08-22 21:48
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Good article
2014-08-09 13:50