The Fed’s decision to leave QE3 untouched for now should offer a respite for telecom stocks that have de-rated in recent months on concerns over rising bond yields. We see value emerging in Indonesia and Thai telcos after their recent steep price drops. ADVANC and TELKOM stay as our top regional picks. We keep our sole Overweight on the Thai telco sector as it offers a rare combination of superior EPS growth and generous yields.
- An extended summer. We see a respite for telecom stocks following the Fed’s decision not to taper off QE3 on grounds that the US economy is still feeble and inflation remains below target. The USD weakened markedly overnight while 10-year Treasury bond yields slipped to their lowest since August. Following the broad de-rating over the past two months, telco stocks across the region rose 1-7% yesterday, with the sharpest gains seen in the Thai and Indonesian telcos. Despite concerns on the higher interest rate environment, we highlight that the sector offers sustainable and generous dividend yields, with earnings that are inherently defensive.
- 2Q tracking in line. There were no major surprises from the June quarter results of the 13 telcos in our regional coverage universe. The underlying trends revealed: i) the continued pressure on voice and SMS revenue in Malaysia, ii) robust y-o-y revenue uplift in Singapore from the take-up of tiered data plans, iii) improved mobile internet revenue momentum in Indonesia, and iv) robust non-SMS data growth in Thailand. The strong data growth remains a common denominator across all regions.
- Singapore and Thailand lead data trends. The Singapore telcos are well ahead in the race to monetize data, with 30% of postpaid subs on tiered 4G/data plans, less than a year after tiered packages were introduced. The flurry of 2G upgrades to 3G has benefited Thailand’s largest operator ADVANC most, prompting management to raise its FY13 EBITDA margin guidance and 3G 2.1GHz subscriber targets.
- Stock picking strategy. ADVANC (ADVANC TB, BUY, TP: THB319) and TELKOM (TLKM IJ, BUY, TP: IDR2500) remain our Top Picks for exposure to the regional telecoms sector. We continue to advocate a stock-picking strategy with the focus on telcos that offer discernible re-rating catalysts alongside good execution track records.
Source: RHB
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TMCreated by kiasutrader | Jun 14, 2016
Created by kiasutrader | May 05, 2016