KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 19 ― A recruitment drive by accepting former Umno MPs may help bolster fledgling Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (PPBM) numbers in Parliament, political analysts have admitted.

However, the pundits polled by Malay Mail warned that such a move may only help the Pakatan Harapan (PH) component in short-term, but will ultimately derail the party’s reform agenda and stability in the long run. 

"At the end of the day people will judge PPBM base on the premise they make in last general election, especially reforms. If by accepting all these Umno MPs who did not want reforms in the elections, that dilutes the reform agenda,” Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Faisal Hazis told Malay Mail.

“They will basically alienate those who voted in last elections. And let’s say they decide to field these Umno MPs [during elections] under the PPBM ticket.

“What about the grassroot members who had voted in their constituencies against these Umno MPs? I’m sure they will not be happy and this could basically change the dynamics of the party at the grassroot levels,” he suggested.

PPBM and Umno: A numbers game?

Being one of the smallest government parties in terms of parliamentary representation, it is understandable that PPBM would want to strengthen its numbers with more MPs.

However, the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies associate professor advised against taking in Umno MPs but to allow the party to grow “organically” instead. 

"It's a way of strengthening the party. It's unfortunate because it's a new party. It made electoral debut in the last election and considering it's a new party, Being able to win 13 seats it is quite commendable.

“I still remember when Parti Keadilan Nasional first contested, they only won three seats and it took them two decades before they capture almost 60 seats in parliament,” he said, referring to the precursor of PKR.

“One thing is about the trust of the people who voted in Umno MPs on Umno ticket, you should respect that decision. They didn't vote for PH, they voted Umno and BN. If they want to jump ship, let them vacate their parliamentary seats first,” he added.

At the end of the 14th general election, PPBM won 13 federal seats in comparison to PKR which has 50 seats, DAP with 42 seats and Amanah which holds 11 seats. 

Currently PPBM has 16 seats, after the inclusion of ex-Umno leaders like Jeli MP Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and former Puteri chief Datuk Mas Ermieyati.

Pacific Research Centre principal adviser Oh Ei Sun pointed out that taking in these former Umno representatives could very well be one of the political strategies masterminded by PPBM founder Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

He explained that there seems to be contention between Dr Mahathir and his successor PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim ― a similar situation which occurred roughly two decades ago.

 

A Flourish data visualisation

“Nowadays, clouds are building up surrounding the Mahathir and Anwar camps. One appears to be taking it easy in terms of passing the baton to the other, while the other is very intent on grabbing the baton soonest. At the end of the day, one of two scenarios is likely to happen,” he proposed.

“One: A reversion to two decades ago when extra-constitutional means were ruthlessly employed to get rid of a political rival intent on succeeding; 

"Or two: A democratic show of parliamentary force to see which camp has more MPs supporting it,” he said.

Oh then explained that theoretically PPBM's next tier of leadership would be Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who is currently recovering from cancer, and Mustapa.

Next in line after that should be Dr Mahathir's son Datuk Seri Mukhriz, and followed by their youth chief Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman, who at 26, is still very young.

He observed that there is a gap between Mukhriz and Syed Saddiq and believed that the newcomers will be able to fill a “gap”.

Defectors a ticking time bomb

However both Faisal and him agreed that accepting former Umno MPs into their ranks is a betrayal to voters and PH component parties.

The UKM academic had pointed out that these Umno MPs never contested to reform the country, unlike PPBM's PH partners.

In Faisal's eyes, this could very well lead to strained ties between PH component parties in the future while PPBM may lose the respect of the voters who wanted to oust Umno in favour of the current government's reform agenda against corruption and kleptocracy.

At the same time, their very presence in the ruling coalition might have the very real possibility of diluting the reforms agenda championed by PH government while bringing in an unhealthy BN and Umno culture.

Faisal also refuted an argument that PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and many PPBM members including Dr Mahathir were originally from Umno. 

"That is comparing an apple and an orange. The thing is Dr Mahathir, Muhyiddin and other PPBM members were on the same page with PH in regards to the reform the country needs to take because they agreed on same manifesto.

 

A Flourish data visualisation

“Although Anwar Ibrahim was also ex-Umno but throughout the election their agenda was different ― to push reforms in this country.

“But all these Umno MPs didn't campaign on that platform. Now that they lost it seems that they are not willing to be in the opposition seat or they're trying to escape possible prosecution from the government,” Faisal argued. 

In addition, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia's Azmi hassan believes that accepting former Umno leaders could create a ticking time bomb in PPBM as the party still lacks a strong grassroot support.

The Perdana School associate professor believes this can create uneasiness among PPBM's original members and leaders due to the fact that these former Umno members are MPs, a position which carries weight in any political organisation.

“Because of the dearth of experienced leaders in [PPBM], internal power struggle is like a time bomb in PPBM which will cause instability for a party that are not strong in grassroots supports.

“With the entry of experienced ex-Umno this will create uneasiness amongst the long time members of PPBM  because these ex-Umno leaders with the title of MP behind them is a real threat to the upcoming PPBM leaders,” Azmi said.