ON Oct 1, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke said UMNO’s refusal to budge from holding polls this year showed that it was deliberately ignoring the Federal Constitution, which provides the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong with discretionary powers with regards to elections.

“Isn’t this derhaka against the institution of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong?” the Seremban MP asked in a statement, using the Malay word for rebellion or treason.

Citing Article 40(2)(b) of the Federal Constitution, Loke said the clause clearly provides the Agong with the power to disallow a request to dissolve Parliament.

No one is actually disputing this constitutional provision mentioned by Loke; thus, it is very strange why he brought up this issue.

He was actually responding to news reports that the UMNO supreme council has set a date for the 15th General Election (GE15) and that its vice-president and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will seek an audience with the King to seek a dissolution of Parliament soon.

To Loke, the UMNO supreme council was setting a condition for the King and ignored the monarch’s constitutional discretionary powers.

This is really stretching things too far in attributing UMNO’s move as derhaka when it is just a simple matter of UMNO wanting a consensus among its top guns on when to hold GE15.

And because the dissolution of Parliament is a must before an election can be held, the Prime Minister will have to seek an audience with the King to get his assent to dissolve the legislature.

In any parliamentary democracy, it is the incumbent Prime Minister who holds the first key to the dissolution of Parliament in the form of having an audience with the King to advise His Majesty to dissolve Parliament.

No one is given the right to share this constitutional privilege of the incumbent PM. The Constitution also provides for the King then to either give his assent or reject it.

There is nothing unconstitutional or derhaka in this. Past dissolution of Parliament in Malaysia always began with this first step.

Loke then went on to say that it had never happened in the history of the country that an open statement regarding the dissolution of Parliament was issued before the prime minister received the approval of the King.

Well, he should study properly the statement made by UMNO secretary-general Datuk Ahmad Maslan on Sept 30 to the media after an UMNO Supreme Council meeting was held.

The announcement made by Ahmad is neither about the exact date of when Parliament will be dissolved nor when GE15 will be held.

That can only happen after the King has given his assent, and it is not for Ahmad to announce it even if assent is given. And he didn’t announce it.

All Ahmad said was Malaysia will have GE15 once Ismail Sabri meets the King to dissolve the Dewan Rakyat.

So why accuse UMNO of being derhaka?

If we were to use past precedents, once Parliament has entered its fourth year from the date of its first sitting, the general election was held, and it usually took place any time within the one year left of Parliament’s existence.

There were cases where a GE was held after three years had passed from Parliament’s first sitting but this is rare. (See Table 1 below)

Of course, it is totally a different matter if Loke feels holding the election this year (slightly less than three months now to a new year) is not a good idea because of the monsoon season where the threat of a big flood like last year may occur.

If this is the case, not only Loke but also some members of the Cabinet and quite a strong segment of the rakyat do not want elections to be held this year for precisely the same reason.

Moreover, based on past precedent a GE was never held in October, November or December except in 1990 and 1999 when then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad called for GE8 and GE10 on Oct 21 and Nov 29 respectively.

Mahathir has since explained doing the same this year would put lives at stake due to the impact of climate change.

In some countries that practise parliamentary democracy, a snap election would be called to capitalise on an unusual electoral opportunity or to decide a pressing issue, under circumstances when an election is not required by law or convention.

We now have less than a year – about nine months – to hold an election, so to describe an election held around this time as a snap election is a misnomer.

It is a scheduled one whether it is held this year or next year.

UMNO has been clamouring for a snap election since last year for two reasons: it saw an electoral opportunity of winning BIG judging from its victories in the Sabah, Sarawak, Melaka and Johor state elections, and also the party believes a snap election will return a stable government into office.

From the perspective of political science, this is perfectly all right and there is nothing indecent in it. Any political party in UMNO’s position will do the same.

Moreover, the stability that UMNO is pushing via holding an election this year is becoming more relevant, as the Opposition is already mulling the idea of not voting for Budget 2023, which will only cause hardship to the rakyat.

In fact, instability is already there once the part that pledged avoiding triggering a GE prematurely before July in the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government and PH had expired on July 31.

Furthermore, this political instability amid the geopolitical uncertainties brought about by the Ukraine war and the global economic uncertainties caused by interest rate hikes by the US will only get worse.

So UMNO is right in wanting to eliminate this instability by holding GE15 as soon as possible within the one year of Parliament’s existence left, which has now become nine months.

The only reason as mentioned earlier why it is not conducive to hold GE15 this year is the threat of a big flood due to climate change.

But knowing a problem is already half the solution. So, in the event if GE15 is held this year, the Government must double up its efforts to mitigate the worst effect of the big flood.

You cannot avoid floods – big or small – especially during monsoon season but you can certainly mitigate the harmful effects of a big flood on lives and property.

And the nature of climate change is such that extreme weather will happen regularly but unpredictably. The worst flood that happened in Baling recently occurred outside the coming monsoon season, so this is what unpredictability in climate change means.

Most weather experts said the best time to hold GE15 is from February or March onwards, but can they guarantee with the unpredictable nature of climate change, there won’t be a big flood after February or March?

In the event GE15 is called this year and assuming on polling day there is a big flood, an emergency situation can always be declared and polling day postponed to a later date.

There are compelling reasons for GE15 to be held this year, and at the same there are also equally compelling reasons for it to be held next year.

Under such circumstances, it doesn’t really matter whether election is held this year or next, just let the Prime Minister decide on when he wants to seek an audience with the King on the dissolution of Parliament.

And let the King decide on whether to give his assent or not. Whatever the decision, the rakyat should and must accept it! – Oct 7, 2022

Jamari Mohtar is the Editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affair.

https://focusmalaysia.my/holding-ge15-this-year-equivalent-to-derhaka-is-stretching-things-too-far/