THERE may be some trepidation among those who follow the Lunar calendar about the 2024 Wood Dragon year, as the entire 2024 does not have an actual Lap Chun - which marks the arrival of spring that heralds the start of the new year.

This is because Lap Chun fell on Feb 4 at 4.37pm, earlier than the actual first day of the 2024 Lunar New Year on Feb 10. The next one comes on Feb 3, 2025, a few days after the start of the 2025 Lunar New Year on Jan 29. This absence of Lap Chun throughout the year makes it a ‘Blind Year’, which is viewed by some as somewhat inauspicious, and unsuitable for marriages or conceiving of babies.

Feng shui experts, however, have assured us that there is little basis for this. So too is the perception that the years of the Dragon - being the only mythical creature in the 12 animal zodiac cycle in the Lunar calendar - are extra auspicious.

Records of the last 60 years show that Dragon years have actually been alternately prosperous and challenging periods. Here’s a quick look at how the past five Dragon years panned out:

The fluctuating fortunes that the Dragon brings

The past Wood, Earth and Water Dragon years were good for equities, with the Earth Dragon year of 1988 bringing about the best performance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a 16.22% rebound, while the KLCI shot up 46.05%.

Inflation has hovered between a growth of 1.5% to 2.6% in Malaysia after dropping 0.4% in the Wood Dragon year of 1964. The US, meanwhile, recorded its highest inflation rate of 5.7% in the Fire Dragon year of 1976, while world inflation touchest its highest of 7.1% in the 1988 Earth Dragon year.

Like the equities market, the ringgit tends to alternate between up and down cycles during Dragon years.

Gold has largely retreated more than climbed during Dragon years, while crude oil has done a little better. CPO prices, meawhile, recorded steep declines in the past two Dragon years.

1964 (Wood Dragon): Economic growth tempered by racial strife

The last round a Wood Dragon came through was 60 years ago in 1964, when the global economy grew by 6.6%, with the US seeing a 5.8% increase and Malaysia recording a 5.4% rise. Inflation rose 1.3% in the US at the time, but Malaysia recorded a 0.4% decline. Commodities like crude oil, crude palm oil, and gold did not fare well during this period.

That was also the year when a series of race riots between the Malay and Chinese communities erupted in Singapore, then part of the newly formed Malaysia, which were a precursor to the eventual departure of the city-state from Malaysia.

In the same year, the Gulf of Tonkin incident took place - during which North Vietnamese boats led two unprovoked attacks on the US fleet - which led to the US escalating its military involvement in the Vietnam War.

1976 (Fire Dragon): Tragedies and tech genesis

The Fire Dragon of 1976 brought a series of tragedies to Malaysia, including a fire that razed the Campbell Shopping Complex to the ground, the shooting of the Royal Malaysian Air Force’s Sikorsky S-61 Nuri helicopter by a communist terrorist in Gubir, Kedah that killed 11 air force men; and a high-profile plane crash - the Double-Six Crash that occurred on June 6 that year - which killed all 11 onboard, including then Sabah chief minister Tun Fuad Stephens.

That same year was when the first Ebola virus case was recorded in Sudan, with an outbreak of the disease later in the Democratic Republic of Congo (now Zaire).

Apple Inc (then known as Apple Computer Company), the world’s largest company by market capitalisation today, was also founded that year by Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs. The company also launched its first product that year, the Apple I computer.

1988 (Earth Dragon): A constitutional crisis and the dawn of terrorism

1988 was when Malaysia witnessed a constitutional crisis that stemmed from Umno’s controversial party elections a year earlier, which saw an intense fight for the presidency that resulted in the party splitting into two teams, Team A led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Team B by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

The dispute led to several Umno members filing a lawsuit to have the election results nullified, which resulted in Umno being declared “an unlawful society”, and Mahathir having to register Umno as Umno Baru - the Baru was later dropped v and Razaleigh setting up a splinter Umno party called Semangat 46. Mahathir, who was prime minister at the time, became increasingly dissatisfied with what he termed as a ‘fiercely independent’ judiciary. The incident culminated in the suspension and removal of Tun Salleh Abas from his post as Lord President of the Supreme Court.

In the same year, Osama bin Laden founded the terrorist organisation Al-Qaeda, which gained notoriety for its involvement in the 1998 US embassy bombings and the tragic September 9/11 attacks.

2000 (Metal Dragon): Y2K panic, dotcom bubble and political upheavals

It was a year marked by widespread concerns about the “Y2K bug” or the year 2000 bug that was expected to create havoc in computer systems around the world, which used only the final two digits of a four-digit year to represent each year, making the year 2000 potentially indistinguishable from 1900. This was feared would bring down worldwide infrastructures for computer-reliant industries.

But contrary to expectations, few major errors occurred due to the Y2K bug that year. Those who warned of and helped with the remediation efforts attributed this to preemptive actions taken to fix the problem before it erupted, while critics argued that in countries where little had been done to fix the issue, problems were still minimal.

The year also saw the collapse of the tech or dotcom bubble, which led to the crash of the Nasdaq Composite Index, which plunged over 33%.

It was no less exciting politically, as Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency in Russia, succeeding Boris Yeltsin, which marked the start of Putin’s extensive political tenure.

That same year, Lunas assemblyman Dr Joe Fernandez was gunned down in broad daylight by bikers while driving home for lunch in Bukit Mertajam. The suspects, according to police investigation, were members of a local Muslim militant group Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia, and that one of them had confessed to plotting the murder.

That same year, Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz was appointed the seventh governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, the first woman to lead the central bank.

2012 (Water Dragon): When the world didn’t end

The end of the old Mayan calendar on Dec 21, 2012, led to speculations that the end of the world was coming. That was soon dismissed as a hoax and Dec 21 that year passed without any apocalyptic events.

2012 was also the year when Barack Obama got re-elected for his second term as US president, defeating the Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

Malaysian diver Pandalela Rinong became the first Malaysian female athlete to win a medal at the Olympics, and the first Malaysian to win an Olympic medal in a sport other than badminton.

Facebook went public on May 18, in one of the biggest IPOs in US history at the time. It saw the social media network owner raise US$18.4 billion.

An outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) affected several countries, primarily in the Middle East. It was first identified in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in June that year.

Notable Malaysian dragons

2024 (Wood Dragon): Promising on the surface but with lots of uneasy ripples underneath

Among the things that feng shui consultant Jane Hor predicted for the Water Rabbit last year was that it would be a good year for gold, that dry weather could affect the production of food and resources, and that scams would be more rampant.

What we know happened in 2023 was that gold ended the year at its highest annual close after jumping 15% that year, while rice prices hit 15-year highs by year end as dry weather threatened the crop in major producing countries. In fact, the 12 months between the start of November in 2022 till October 2023 were found to be the hottest on record, with over 99% of the world’s population experiencing above-average warmth, according to news reports citing an analysis by the non-profit Climate Central. Malaysia’s National Scam Response Centre, meanwhile, recorded a 66.7% jump in recorded losses to RM1.34 billion from Jan 1 to Dec 8, 2023, compared to 2022’s RM804 million.

For this new Wood Dragon year, Hor said things will appear seemingly promising on the surface - thanks to the complementary formation of the upper stems of the year’s birth chart or Bazi (there are four upper stems and four bottom branches in a chart, each carrying its own element). But the bottom branches are clashing with each other, signalling lots of ripples underneath, simmering tensions and hidden disputes.

While she sees no new major wars breaking out, there will be lots of arguments and disputes, nationally and internationally. “The year also brings with it the Three Jade Star of conflict, which heralds lots of disputes, impulsiveness, stubbornness and possible escalation of violence,” she said.

So it’s a year that calls for restraint and patience, said Hor. Especially for those born between Feb 4 and Aug 7, it is a time to be less aggressive, but to plan and strategise for more defensive tactics for the years ahead. The opposite is advised for those born between Aug 8 and Feb 3, as the time has come for them to be more daring, to go on the offensive, to grab the opportunities they see.

For Malaysia, the Wood Dragon and the coming five years are generally seen as not bad for the country as the Southeast Asia region is favoured. There will be a lot of disputes and conflicts between parties in the country (and between countries), but a semblance of stability will be maintained as those in power will know it is a time to seek a compromise instead of letting things escalate. Overall, there will be no big political upheavals, but expect lots of undercurrents.

The arrival of Period 9

The arrival of the Wood Dragon also marks the first year of the 20-year Period 9 in Feng Shui.

While Period 8 is represented by the Earth element and reflected a rise of young male entrepreneurs and was a good time for earth-related businesses and investments - for example property prices jumped globally during this period, and construction activities prospered - Period 9 is represented by the Fire element, and denotes an era for the middle-aged women to rise to power or influence.

Period 9 also signifies the advent of technology, new media, and innovation. But it is less stable than Period 8, as it brings lots of disruptions and uncertainties, with more natural disasters occuring, including volcanic eruptions and forest fires.

The transition will also result in the influence or positive energies of the Northeast and Southwest receding, while the North and South will gain strength. The same is true whether globally or domestically, said Hor.

Sectors to watch

It will generally be a good time for fire industries, such as those related to technology - like IT, artificial intelligence, and digital content.

Water-related industries like logistics and trading will see lots of activities but profitability may be impacted by rising costs. “So basically you will see lots of activities, but unlikely to be making much money,” Hor said, adding that such industries’ performance will improve after entering the autumn months.

Wood industries will remain quite competitive. So it’s about survival of the fittest. Palm oil prices are unlikely to jump.

Earth-related sectors like real estate will be relatively better than last year, with more price-recoveries seen, while oil prices will likely rise.

As for metal sectors - including precious metals - they are generally not strong. While there might be some leg left for gold prices to climb but do not expect another record rally. Metal sectors include finance, automotive and hardware.

Overall, the year is likely to be a bit lacklustre on the economic front for the first half, with things only expected to turn better around the third quarter.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/700833