WHETHER we realise it or not, the reign of 10^th Prime Minister (PMX) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s has lasted for 19 months as of June 24.

Since the fall of now incarcerated premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak in 2018, all succeeding governments in Malaysia have been stricken with a shorter and shorter tenure.

Najib’s successor Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad only managed to last for 22 months in his second premiership stint with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who succeeded him lasted for 17 months.

Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri who succeeded Muhyiddin currently holds the record as the shortest serving PM in Malaysia with just 15 months under his belt.

That Anwar has managed to break the trend by reigning for longer than Ismail Sabri and Muhyiddin can thus be considered as having scored a minor achievement indeed. In fact, it can be said that he has broken the curse of a shorter and shorter lifespan that has befallen all the governments in Malaysia since 2018.

Giving credit where credit is due - whether you are for him or not - you have to admit that it was no small feat for Anwar to keep his reign intact for the last 19 months.

At a glance, Anwar’s Madani government doesn’t have many things working for it. In contrast, the number of things that are working against it is quite staggering.

“Dog/cat walking on two legs”

Considering everything, I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say that the government of the day is being held chiefly by the singular power of Anwar and Anwar alone for without him.

Under the prevailing conditions, I reckon there is only another politician in Malaysia who could have done what Anwar has done; that politician is none other than Dr Mahathir, Anwar’s former mentor and arch nemesis.

Other than Dr Mahathir, I doubt whether there exist any other politicians that could have held together a government that does not have much going for it and a lot of things against it for 19 long months.

Even Dr Mahathir, I reckon, would probably not be able to do what Anwar has done today on account of his advanced age.

Looking at Anwar’s Madani government making it through these last 19 months is akin to looking at a dog or a cat walking on two legs. The lion’s share of the kudos for such an achievement, I truly believe, does go to Anwar.

With a combo of daring, shamelessness, confidence, flattery, charisma, hard work, shenanigans, noble aims, ruthlessness, intrigue and trickery, he has achieved something that no one else could have probably achieved in the country.

Considering that a maximum term of governance in Malaysia is five years, the half-way point would be 2.5 years. Once Anwar crosses the half-way mark, I think we can safely conclude that he will be able to last for a full term for then he would have crossed a point where the end would be closer than the beginning.

I don’t even think that he has to cross the 2.5 years mark in order to cross the halfway point. I think he just needs to cross the two-year mark to cross the half-way point. Once he celebrates his second anniversary, I think everybody in the country - like it or not - will be inclined to accept that Anwar is going to be here to stay until 2027.

Subsidy rationalisation tops looming challenges

Anwar has approximately another five months to go before he can celebrate his second anniversary in power in November 2024.

Although five months might not look like much, Anwar does have a lot of obstacles to cross before he can reach that half-way point.

At the top of the list, I would pick the subsidy rationalisation as the #1 obstacle that might derail Anwar’s plan to make it to 2024. For as long as I remember, my favourite Nasi Lemak Ayam Goreng at SS15 Subang Jaya was sold for RM9.50.

As soon as the diesel rationalisation kicked in, it shot up to RM11.50. If Anwar cannot control inflation that will inevitably occur due to the subsidy rationalisation, only God can save his government because the people will surely rebel.

Other than the subsidy rationalisation, I would probably pick the fate of the six rebel MPs in the parliament as the second biggest challenge that Anwar’s unity government will have to face in the next five months.

There is no question that the position of the six rebel MPs in the parliament is untenable. They will have to vacate their seat with by-election to be called in their constituencies. The question, however, lies in the timing.

Will the government be able to time the calling of by-election for the six seats to its advantage or will developing events sweep the matter out of the government’s hand, causing the six by-elections to be held at such an inopportune time that will not only cause the government to lose the six seats but also serve as a sort of referendum against its reign?

Other than that, the shenanigans of the government ministers who are showing signs that they are being tempted by corruption and nepotism as well as a developing feud between the royals - who are among Anwar’s strongest backers - are other possible challenges that might derail Anwar’s ability to celebrate his second anniversary.

Another possible ‘time-bomb’ could be complications that might arise due to international affair - like the one with regard to BlackRock and its connection to the war in Gaza. - July 1, 2024

Nehru Sathiamoorthy is a roving tutor who loves politics, philosophy and psychology. 

https://focusmalaysia.my/will-pmx-make-it-past-2-years/