• The STI has returned to below 3,100, closing last week below the threshold for the first time since Oct 2022. This brings the decline in total return to 1.2% for the year to 20 Oct, in-line with the 1.0% decline for the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Net Total Return Index.
   
• The 50 most traded Singapore stocks which include the majority of the STI constituents, are on average trading ~12% below their average 5-year price-to-book ratios, while at the same time trading ~26% below their Refinitiv consensus estimate target prices.
   
• The SPDR Gold Shares ETF ended Friday at US$183.89/unit, up from US$174.7/unit a week prior and US$168.5/unit a fortnight prior. The month-to-date trading turnover in the traditional safe-haven ETF is up 70% from Sep levels. The recent moves position the ETF unit prices to above July price levels, yet still off its US$190.0/unit highs seen in April and May.
   

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended last week at 3,076.69 with a 3.4% decline on the week, which saw three consecutive closes below the 3,100 level. This brings the STI’s decline in total return terms for the 2023 year to 20 October to 1.2%, in-line with a 1.0% decline for the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Net Total Return Index.

At the same time, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has generated a 10.9% gain for the 2023 year to 20 Oct, in SGD terms. The ETF ended Friday at US$183.89 per unit, maintains a minimum one-unit investment and is traded in both USD and SGD counters. Investors that seek exposure to as close as possible to one ounce of gold (~0.987 ounces) can purchase 11 units, equivalent to US$2,023 as of 20 Oct. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is also included under the CPF Investment Scheme - Ordinary Account and Supplementary Retirement Scheme.  

Flagged as a key risk for both investors and listed stocks ahead of 2023, global geopolitical concerns have escalated in recent weeks. Since the Hamas attacks in Israel on 7 Oct, the STI declined 3.1% through to 20 Oct, and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF gained 8.7% in SGD terms. The initial broad stock market gains on the view that global geopolitical concerns would reduce the case for FOMC to pursue higher interest rates was short-lived. Since 12 Oct, the STI has declined 4.4%, while the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Net Total Return Index has declined 3.4% and the FTSE All World Index has declined 3.1%. Other overarching factors at work in the global stock market in recent weeks include more indications of growth deceleration in the United States and China in 2024, as inflation in the former is still seen to be too high, while 10-year UST yields are staunchly trading at 5%.

The declines in the STI have seen the majority of the 50 most active Singapore-listed stocks for the year-to-date till 20 Oct trade at price-to-book ratios that are below their 5-year average price-to-book ratios. At the same time, all 48 of the 50 stocks that are maintained by Refinitiv to have coverage by more than three analysts are trading below their Refinitiv consensus estimates.

These Refinitiv consensus estimates represent the average of individual estimates provided by analysts covering the stock. Estimates also typically represent an analyst's opinion of the stock performance over the next 18 months. These consensus estimates are updated on an intra-day basis on the SGX Stock Screener, thus some of the consensus estimates may now differ from those tabled below, and these estimates can be subject to both upward and downward revisions.  

The 50 most traded stocks this year in Singapore are tabled below, and sorted by the most traded in the 2023 year to 20 Oct. Based on Friday close prices, compared to early Monday consensus prices, the 50 stocks were trading 26% below their Refinitiv consensus estimates, and 24% below those estimates on a median basis.

Source: SGX, Refinitiv (Data as of 20 Oct 2023, except for the Refinitiv Consensus Estimate which is taken from the SGX Stock Screener at 0930 on 23 Oct).

Notes:

(1) Jardine Matheson and Hongkong Land Holding prices, consensus estimates and returns in USD, while net institutional flows in SGD.  

(2) Also note that 5-year total returns for stocks that have been listed within the last 5 years are taken from IPO prices.

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