I'm increasingly coming across articles cautioning us that we may *never* have a vaccine against Covid-19 even as we are fast approaching the moment with hopeful anticipation that a number of vaccines in stage III of trial will soon announce their findings. Against the backdrop of the historical developments of vaccines, the odds of developing a covid-19 vaccine this fast - within such a short timeframe - are realistically close to nil.

So what if the vaccines are not as successful as we hope for come December 2020? If all the vaccines currently undergoing stage III trials fail, it will have a significant long-term impact on the stock price of Supermax.

First, there will be further shift of demand curve to the right within a fairly short period of time. What this means is that many countries and industries that are not using disposable gloves will start adopting the practice of wearing gloves on a routine basis. Such exponential demand growth will not be met even by the production capacity expansions currently being undertaken, putting further pressure on ASP.

Second, Supermax PE valuation will explode. Supermax earnings have been growing exponentially for the last 3 quarters. Yet, the market is not valuing it as a growth stock. Annualizing the Supermax's PE based on the last quarter's EPS (30.58 sen x 4), the market is valuing Supermax stock price at a pathetic 7.7X. This is worse than PEs valuing companies with declining earnings. Why? Some speculate that it is the results of Investment Bankers suppressing Supermax stock price to mitigate their structured warrant losses. There may have some truth in that. But more probably, the market, rightly or wrongly, perceive that Supermax's super earnings growth is unsustainable. The pandemic will soon be eradicated. Demands for gloves will regress to pre-covid levels. ASP will fall. Supermax's exponential earnings growth will dissipate. I personally believe that such perceptions are flawed. But who is to argue with Mr. Market? So once these misconceptions are unequivocally exposed by the failed vaccine trials, Supermax's PE will explode to 40X or 50X. (Unimaginable? PE for Tesla is 1,000+X.)

In conclusion, Supermax stock is HUGELY UNDERVALUED. Demands for gloves are inelastic. We all know that Supermax's earnings are still growing - vaccine or no vaccine. Earnings are far from peaking. The earnings growth is recession-proof. We just need to wait for Mr. Market to catch up. When (not 'if') that happens, there will be a stampede for Supermax shares.