TIV Up 1.8% in July

According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), the monthly total industry volume (TIV) increased 1.8% MoM to 63.7k units in July. The higher TIV was mainly due to normalisation of the automotive supply chains and fulfilment of bookings received for new model launches recently. The passenger vehicle segment increased by 4.0% MoM to 57.9k units while the commercial car segment fell 16.6% to 5.7k units in July. YTD, the TIV surged 12.6% YoY to 429.8k units, driven by both passenger and commercial car segments, which recorded total sales of 384.6k units (+13.7% YoY) and 45.2k units (+4.3% YoY), respectively (refer to Figure 1). MAA expects Aug’s TIV to be slightly higher than July, premised on the introduction of a few new models as well as National Day promotional campaigns from some car companies.

Mix Results for National Marques

National marques showed mixed results in July. Perodua registered higher sales of 28.4k units (+26.1% MoM, 55.0% YoY). This is the 2nd highest monthly sales achieved for 2023. While for Proton, sales volume fell by 5.5% MoM to 13.1k units. YTD, both national brands, Perodua and Proton registered higher sales of 18.8% and 30.1% YoY to 173.1k units and 89.1k units, respectively. Both brands have seen their combined market share increased to 68.1% for the first seven months of 2023 compared to 63.3% recorded last year.

Non-National Marques Showed Weaker TIV

Meanwhile, for non-national marques, Honda and Nissan were only brands that registered higher sales in July, with an increase of 19.2% MoM and 2.3% MoM to 6.0k units and 567 units in July. Toyota sales decreased slightly by 0.6% MoM to 6.1k units, while Mazda and Volkswagen registered lower of 7.5% and 18.0% respectively. YTD, the combined sales of non-national cars decreased by 1.4% YoY to 122.4k units. All major car brands registered lower passenger vehicle sales compared to last year, except Toyota (+11.3% YoY) and Mazda (+33.8%).

Maintain Neutral

We reiterate our Neutral recommendation for the sector. Despite launches of new models, facelift versions, and new variants, future car sales could be affected by weakening consumer sentiment, interest rate hikes and the targeted fuel subsidy scheme (if introduced by the government). Our TIV forecast for 2023 of 650k is currently under review. Meanwhile, all stock calls are also under review pending the release of their financial statements and analyst briefings, which are scheduled to take place in the next few days.

Source: TA Research - 21 Aug 2023