TeoCT
Why different countries outcome are different.
What might be the factors that produces the different outcome?
Population 25.4 million
Urban – 85.9%
Median age – 37.9 years
Population: 32 million
78.4 % is urban
Median age 30.3 years
Death per million population from CV19 for both Malaysia and Australia is about 3
Cases per million population is about 260 for Australia and 168 for Malaysia.
Australia brought the number of new cases quickly down to half and further to the low tens within three weeks from lockdown. While Malaysia is just halving the cases after 4 weeks and counting.
WHY?
Is it the people? The attitude, WHAT?
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Australia is carrying out 17,020 tests per 1m population compared with 3,344 tests per 1m.
Testing per-se does not indicate why Australia outcome (reduced cases) are better than Malaysia.
2020-04-21 12:14
not even 3444............because most of tests are repeated tests on the same people........
we need statistics of how many people tested, not how many testings done.
2020-04-21 12:16
I still fail to see how testing will reduce new cases?
By the way, the numbers quoted are from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ that got all their data from the respective countries health department (or whatever authority that releases the information).
2020-04-21 13:32
by carrying out more tests, Australia was be able to detect more mild/asymptomatic cases in the community. They were able to identify and isolate those cases quicker, putting a stop to new cases emerging. On the other hand, we likely have some mild/asymptomatic cases lying around in the community due to the lack of testing who continue to spread the disease to others. Therefore, our number reduction dont look as great as theirs.
2020-04-25 21:39
reason could be:
- we have developed many clusters from the mosque attendees earlier...
- foreign workers living in groups hidden everywhere..
- late control/restriction at the international airport unlike Australia...
- Sabah sarawak having huge flux of foreigners...and illegals..
2020-04-25 21:50
tests in Australia are cheap.
we dun really know the costs of tests in Malaysia.
as an indication, tests in Malaysia must one hell of a damn expensive if NGOs money (not Malaysian Govt money) spend RM65.00 for delivery charges for RM35.00 of light weight goods.
of course,
where did those NGOs who spend RM65.00 delivery charges get their money from?
interesting questions.
so many things we have no idea at all in Malaysia.
Malaysian Govt must really cut off all payments to NGOs in the Malaysian Budget.
2020-04-25 21:53
Thought this was interesting. Mathematical modelling used to predict the end of the Covid19 outbreak. We’ll know how far it is true in the next few weeks.
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg
2020-04-26 07:41
David, thank you for your explanation on testing. Fair, the more testing to identify carrier / mild cases and ISOLATING them would led to reduce local transmission. And thanks for the link.
i3lurker, if I am not mistaken, test in Australia is free. But of course, one can still go to private clinic for paid test.
probability - yes, these might be the other reasons for the slow reduction in new cases after such long lock-down.
My view is, Malaysians appear not wanting to come forward, maybe due to fear of authority (for whatever reason), for testing. This is especially those that have come in contact with known cases.
The low testing maybe due to inability to procure test-kits. Also, the testing criteria is strictly narrow to conserve test kits or time for healthcare workers, so they can concentrate on caring.
2020-04-26 10:04
USA has the highest screening in the world! Indonesia hardly do any! So yeah, ignorant is a bliss! Just look at the figure, Indonesia is so bless to have zero infection, so they say! But no test no case can only go so far! Eventually the truth will come out just like in case of Singapore!
Preventing is the best mention to curb Covid19! Just look at China, they just lockup everybody in Wuhan until the chain of spread completely goner! So yeah, it's just common sense!
Separately infected, lockdown whole nation or state, and after a short 2 months, Covid19 becomes history!
Unless you are living among smart.ss who thinks social disntancing is a breach of human right then only God can help you!
2020-04-26 10:13
Anyway, Malaysia is almost there! Many states recorded zero infections for days now! It seems only Selangor, KL, Johor and Sarawak continues to record double figures! The rest zero cases for days already!
2020-04-26 10:15
The MOH has procured rapid antigen test kits from South Korea. i think they would start mass testing as soon as the kit arrives, hence the extension of the MCO to weed out all positive cases as much as possible. We could possibly see a surge in cases after this as more mild/asymptomatic ones are picked up from mass testing.
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/04/16/health-dg-new-covid-19-rapid-test-kits-procured-from-south-korea
Thought that indonesia made the right move to suspend all sea and air travel until 31 May. The number of Indonesians travelling to and fro Indonesia for the hari raya period would dampen the efforts to contain the outbreak.
2020-04-26 10:37
Latuk Seri Rick Walker - US testing is highest in absolute number only. Iceland is the highest, about 135k per million population (this is a better indicator).
Yes, agree that many areas of Malaysia have gone without any new cases for days / weeks and hopefully, as the analysis by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg, we will see the end of this around May 5th.
Thanks, David for the headup on new kits coming soon.
2020-04-26 10:55
If Harapan had step in much earlier, we would have lifted lockdown much earlier! The taligh cluster is the most problematic! 2nd is the Italy cluster where many hide their trip to Italy only to infect many bystanders! As for those who travelled to Indonesia, luckily government step in and screen they upon return! That's why it's shocking how Indonesia record very low infection but most of those return are infected!
2020-04-26 11:10
We should see many states to record zero again today! Actually i totally disagree with blanket MCO as alot of states no longer see spread! Curb has been very successful!
2020-04-26 11:11
I was wondering how much those tests cost The Malaysian Govt that there are so stingy with it.
Posted by teoct > Apr 26, 2020 10:04 AM | Report Abuse
David, thank you for your explanation on testing. Fair, the more testing to identify carrier / mild cases and ISOLATING them would led to reduce local transmission. And thanks for the link.
i3lurker, if I am not mistaken, test in Australia is free. But of course, one can still go to private clinic for paid test.
2020-04-26 11:38
The key indicators are:
1. Face Mask. (plus other protective gears, but mask being most important). Mask is the most cost effective way to lower down the numbers.
2. Base. China Starts from 0. Italy starts from hundreds. US starts from thousands.
3. Age.
4. Weather.
5. Population density.
6. Strain. The Virus in Malaysia is mild while Italy, Spain one is fierce. But this could be due to virus load or environment temperature while contracting.
7. 3, 4, 5, 6 together influence r0.
8. Damn, I hate teaching.
9. Continue fry glove (and mask).
2020-04-26 11:47
Latuk, surprisingly well current government doing. If it is still Mahathir and LGE, we are toasted. Back to 600 points already.
2020-04-26 11:48
Yeah, common sense lost it's way! Use face mask and protect your eyes with glasses! Covid19 goes through your face especially the eyes! But hey, the medical experts telling us that it's not necessary to wear face mask or face screen!
It's like telling us that wearing condom does not prevent pregnancy and that it's okay to go bareback as long as your practice social disntancing!
2020-04-26 11:50
Posted by supersaiyan3 > Apr 26, 2020 11:48 AM | Report Abuse
Latuk, surprisingly well current government doing. If it is still Mahathir and LGE, we are toasted. Back to 600 points already.
Answer : Thank God for her intervention! if not, Mahathir would still insist Covid19 not lethal and chinese tourists are most welcome to come! And you have tourism minister telling us Covid19 is just a small matter! Of course LGE will brag about his RM30 emoney to help malaysians weather Covid19! I mean, Harapan was a total joke! Good riddance! And today they are so champion telling us that we must have parliment to discuss how to plan for exit plan, bipartisan argument and discussion and so forth! In short, they continue to be empty vessel overpolitizing Covid19 just to win supports!
2020-04-26 11:54
and as for Malaysia.............Malaysia not so lucky.......
competence lost , malay unity won just as we enter into the crisis when competence is the difference between success and failure.
2020-04-26 12:58
crisis management............Mahathir had high ratings for his crisis management in 1998 crisis..............
2020-04-26 13:00
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confirmed cases is a function of testing..........no test no case.............simple.
2020-04-21 11:48