Undervalued Gems in Bursa Malaysia

Best Plantation Stocks to Ride Palm Oil Bull

InvestingPlaybook
Publish date: Wed, 09 Mar 2022, 03:48 PM
With more than 900 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia, every now and then there will be hidden gems with great value for investors. Through this blog, I will uncover these hidden gems and show you very simple logic on why its undervalued. No complicated & hypothetical projections, my approach is simple analysis that everyone on the street will find it logical to deem these gems undervalued.

With palm oil price rising to the highest on record, many observers are excited about the profit opportunity it offers. From supply chain bottleneck to Ukraine Invasion, the list of factors supporting palm oil prices are plentiful. So being an enterprising trader, knowing the direction of an asset is one thing, knowing how to get exposure to the asset is another. In this article, we cover the best way to gain exposure to the recent palm oil price bull run

Don’t think this is important? Try riding on the oil price run by investing in Sapura Energy Bhd.

Two Main Ways to Gain Exposure to Palm Oil Prices

Based in Malaysia & having access to Bursa Malaysia offers you more options to gain exposure to palm oil prices as Malaysia is the second largest palm oil producer globally. Two of the most commonly ways to gain exposure to palm oil prices are (i) Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) (ii) investing in palm oil stocks in Malaysia.

Futures vs Palm Oil Stocks

Getting price exposure through FCPO offers you a direct and clean exposure to palm oil prices. Your profit & loss is almost 100% explained by the changes in palm oil prices & you will not be exposed to the idiosyncratic risk of palm oil stocks. However, gaining exposure through FCPO is capital intensive. FCPO contract size is large and the initial margin is 10% to 13% of the notional value. Additionally, there is no spot contract for palm oil, hence your delivery is future-dated. So you will need to deal with occasional premium, in the case of contago, and discount, in the case of backwardation. Both of which may erode your profit.

For Palm oil stocks, the main disadvantage is that you do not have direct exposure to palm oil stocks. Investing in a stock carries idiosyncratic risks unique to it. So you may not have direct & full benefit from the rise of palm oil stocks. However, in this article we will express our preference for palm oil stocks & the reason behind it.

Why is Exposure through Palm Oil stocks preferred

Besides its flexible capital outlay, investing through palm oil stocks is advantageous because you stand to enjoy a double whammy if the company is able to increase production of palm oil while the oil price rises. You get to also enjoy more profits if the company is able to increase efficiency through cost reduction. Of course, if the company is poorly managed, its performance will be a drag, hence the idiosyncratic risk. As such, finding the right stock to gain exposure is important.

Criteria to determine the best palm oil stocks

Criteria

Reasoning

Consistent Profitability

To reduce idiosyncratic risk, investments should be narrowed to only stocks which have displayed consistent profit track record. This reduces the risk of encountering poor management quality.

Efficiency in Oil Production

When investing in a palm oil stock, profit is largely driven by palm oil price & palm oil production. To reduce the risk of lower palm oil production offsetting the gains from palm oil price, its important to look for company that excels in oil production efficiency.

Sensitivity to Oil Price

The idea behind investing in palm oil stocks here is to gain exposure to palm oil price. This objective is better met fi the company’s profits is highly sensitive to oil price, thus giving the best exposure to palm oil price change.

Dividend payout consistency

Factors behind share price movements are unpredictable. The price of oil and the company’s profits may rise while its share price remain stagnant or fall. As such, going for a company with consistent dividend distribution is important because dependant on its share price appreciation and get to enjoy the gain from palm oil price increase through higher profit and dividend.

Palm Oil focused

To reduce profit impacts which are unrelated to palm oil price, you need to look for stocks which profits and business are largely derived from palm oil business.

Plantation Stocks Comparison Chart

Companies

Consistent Profit

Profit sensitivity to CPO price*

Consistent dividend

Palm Oil Yield (MT/Hectare)

Palm Oil Focused

Batu Kawan

Yes

0.63%

Yes

4.66

Yes

Chintek

Yes

1.74%

Yes

3.45

Yes

Fareast

Yes

0.78%

Yes

3.72

Yes

GenP

Yes

3.43%

Yes

3.81

Yes

HSPLant

Yes

5.00%

Yes

4.07

Yes

KLK

Yes

3.72%

Yes

4.66

Yes

SIMEPLT

Yes

2.68%

Yes

4.10

Yes

UTDPLT

Yes

1.07%

Yes

5.99

Yes

IOI

Yes

4.09%

Yes

4.44

Yes

*Change in % of profit for each % change in average CPO price

Best Stocks for Palm Oil Price Exposure

Based on the above comparison chart, the top 3 stocks that provides the best exposure to palm oil price are:

  • Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd (HSPLANT)
  • IOI Corporation Bhd (IOICORP)
  • Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK)

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

i3gambler

KLK boss asked his own staffs to buy BKAWAN instead of KLK.
The reason is very simple.

2022-03-10 07:37

calvintaneng

Post removed.Why?

2022-03-10 07:49

aa88

2022 calvin year

2022-03-11 13:03

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