THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016, 03:18 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Fellow Investors of i3 Forum

We should always diversify Our Investments into Different Classes of Investments to Protect Our Wealth First & Foremost. Then only THINK of a Profit.

The only thing certain out there in the world is uncertainty and things can suddenly change. Fortunes are made or lost with the changing times. So I hope my article will be of help

 

IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION,

Ecclesiastes 11:2  ” Divide your investments  into seven , or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth   (NASB)”.

Solomon tells us 2 Important  Things In This Verse:-

No.1) TO DIVERSIFY OUR INVESTMENTS INTO 7 OR EVEN 8  AREAS.  WHY? HE GAVE THE REASON –

No. 2) FOR YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT  MISFORTUNE MAY OCCUR ON THE EARTH.

In Other Words, Don’t Put All Your Eggs In The Same Basket. Because When The Basket Falls Down, All the Eggs Will Be Broken Together. That means Total Loss!

Let Me Relate 3 True Stories:-

No.1) One Evening, after the plane landed at Changi Airport from Kuala Lumpur, I took a taxi home. Since the journey from Changi Airport to my place in  Jurong West takes about an hour, I decided to talk to the taxi driver regarding the latest  developement in Singapore.

As I was conversing with this  particular taxi driver I noticed that he looked different. So I said, “You don’t look at all like a taxi driver, you must have been a CEO or some  Big Time Business Man?” And I was right.

Then he shared his story. “Actually”, he says, “I am the Owner of An Import & Export Company In Singapore. Business has been very good and it’s growing bigger and bigger all the time.” “Why are you driving a taxi, then?”, I chipped in. “We recently sent a Consignment of Goods To The US. It Was One Of The Biggest Sale We Made – Worth US$20 Millions.

Then 911 STRUCK NEW YORK TWIN TOWERS. All our contacts with the Receiving Party in US were cut off, since their Office is in the TWIN TOWERS THAT COLLAPSED. We are not sure where the goods that we sent are currently located. At the same time our Creditors are chasing for payment. We don’t know what to do. At the moment I am driving a taxi to get cash  for daily expenses.”

No. 2) During the Asian Financial Crisis, everyone was trying to cut cost. Instead of staying in hotel, I moved to a house operated as a Home Stay for traveling salesman. It costs only rm30 a night with a/cond.

Here I met a young gentleman driving a gleaming Mercedes Benz. Curious I said,”You look like a well to do prosperous man of better means than to stay in this cheap place here?”. Then he told me his predicament. He shared with me that by age 22 he is already a millionaire. He started as a young apprentice doing electrical wiring for homes and offices.

One evening when his boss and colleague  had left he was still working into the wee hours of the night. He wanted to complete the job. The place was the Sultan’s Palace. When he was absorbed in his work, Datuk Ling Liong Sik walked in. Then followed by Datuk Samy Vellu. Seeing his hard work and dilligence both Cabinet Ministers gave him their Name Cards. And they told him to go to them if he needed help.

He went to see them, got some lucrative contracts and started his own company. Money just rolled in and in no time due to his hard work and dilligence he made his fortune.

However, he thought, “I only  my made my fortune by my connections. I wasn’t sure whether it was by my own ability?” So he decided to leave Malaysia for work in Singapore – where he is on his own without  any special connections. Alas! He said that the Singaporean Business men outsmarted him and he lost his entire fortune.

So he returned to Malaysia. Went for help again. This time he managed to get subcontract work for The Petronas Twin Towers In K.L.  Unfortunately, the Asian Financial Crisis Struck in 1997 and his Main Contractor ran away and did not pay him – estimated to be 2 Million ringgit.

However, his suppliers are chasing him for only RM200K worth of goods. That is the reason why he has to go into hiding. My advise was to tell him to be honest with his suppliers. After all the Petronas Twin Towers  Still Need to be completed, somehow.

I hope these two gentlemen turn out well.

3) Mr. Liew of HELANG CAMAR   hailed from Sabah. He started his Used Car Dealership in KL before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98. His Used Car Business thrived in 1993-early 1997. He told me he still have half of his capital tied in the Oil Palm Plantation Lands in Sabah. He wanted to sell off his Plantation and put all the  capital into the booming Car Business. I advised him not to do it.

Then The Asian Financial Crisis Struck in End 1997. He told me his accumulated profits for 3 years were wiped out within 3 short months. And he is staring at further losses from Unsold Stock of Cars. However, his Oil Palm Fruit Bunches were fetching good prices. So his losses were cushioned by the Booming Palm Oil Prices.

By  May 2001 (4 years later) the Used Car Market Fully Recoverrd and he was doing well once again. However, Palm Oil Prices Crashed Below Production Cost!  The cost of fertilizer, worker’s wages and  overhead costs is more than the actual selling price of palm fruits. Trees were left idle, fertilizer sold back to supplier & workers retrenched. With the downturn of Palm Oil Prices he concentrated his energy on the Used Car Business.

You see, It Is Important To Diversify Investments Since We Cannot See The Future.

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Note:

The concentration of Focus on Export Related Stocks have chased them into the stratosphere while laggard stocks are treated as though they are going to go bankrupt soon.

So there is now a Huge Distortion between Price and Value.

Some Stocks Are Now in Highly Overvalued Territories While Others Are Sold Down into Unknown Depths of Despair.

As A Contrarian Value Investor I Issue A Strong Call To Rebalance Your Portfolios by lightening up High Flyers & putting some monies in overlooked laggards like

1) Pm Corp (Now giving a nice 8 cents Cash Pay Out)

2) TMakmur (A nice 8.5% dividend with Upside Potential by El Nino Factor)

3) BJ Corp (Now in Multi Year Lows of 42.5 Cents) Will benefit Greatly From Inbound Tourism Due to Collapsed Ringgit against Sing Dollar, Thai Bath, Brunei Dollar, Viet Dong, China Renminbi, Indian Rupee, Koean Won & Japanese Yen.

One more thought:

With fallen ringgit Malaysians might turn to domestic tourism to save cost. And since Malaysia is a muslim nation more might drink more Starbuck coffee as alcohol is not permitted for muslims. KFC did so well and it was taken private for the same reason that muslims cannot eat pork.

 

Regards,

Calvin

 

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