El Niño is over – but it leaves nearly 100 million people short of food

The strongest El Niño in 35 years which has seen long droughts, scorching temperatures, water shortages and flooding around the world is officially over. But the consequences of a second year of extreme weather will be seen for many more months in food shortages for nearly 100 million people, the loss of income for millions of poor farmers and higher prices in cities, say the UN and leading meteorologists.

According to Australian and US government scientists, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which warm significantly every few years, have cooled to normal levels and are unlikely to rise again this year. This marks the end of an 18-month global weather hiatus which has created social and ecological turmoil in Asia,Africa and Latin America.

“There is little chance of [sea surface temperatures] returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño,” said an Australian government spokesman.

However, scientists say a reverse effect “La Niña” phenomenon is possible. This would see temperatures fall below normal in the Pacific equatorial waters, bringing heavier rains, floods and much cooler temperatures to many countries.

Overstretched humanitarian groups have warned that the extreme conditions will last for many more months. Concern is mounting in southern Africa, where 50 million people are expected by the UN’s World Food programme to need help with food supplies in the coming nine months.

Some of the most extreme weather has been felt across southern Asia in the last nine months, where countries including India, the Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia have all experienced their worst droughts and most intense heatwaves in decades.

According to US meteorologists at Accuweather, highest ever temperatures have been recorded in Thailand at 44.6C (112.3F), Cambodia at 42.6C (108.7F), Laos at 42.3C (108.1F) and the Maldives at 34.9C (94.8F). Last week India broke the world record, with a temperature of51C (123.8F) recorded in Rajasthan.

“Millions of families are living in El Niño’s devastating path of extreme conditions. Children, especially, face hunger, disease and futures shorn of the opportunities provided by education. Countries most affected by El Niño are also bearing the brunt of climate change, and it’s the most vulnerable and impoverished communities that will continue to be the hardest hit,” said Tanya Steele, interim CEO of Save the Children. 

India

Two consecutive failed monsoons, the lowest rainfall in seven years, and some of the hottest days and nights ever recorded in India saw vast tracts of farmland scorched and rice, maize, sugar cane and oilseed crops badly damaged in 2015/16.

Hundreds of millions of Indians who depend on farming for livelihoods were badly affected, with reports suggesting thousands of poor farmers haveabandoned their withered crops and gone to live in towns.

May and June are usually India’s hottest months and temperatures regularly exceed 40C in the run-up to the monsoon rains. But the severity of this year’s heat has been been unprecedented. Rivers, lakes and dams have dried up in many parts of Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat states.

The heatwaves have also made life intolerable in many cities. Indian weather officials warned last week of more frequent heatwaves as the scorching temperatures triggered power cuts, after demand for air conditioning and fans greatly exceeded supply.

Vietnam

Vietnam has suffered its worst drought in nearly 100 years with record low river flows and salinisation of fresh water supplies. Because of low water in the Mekong river and its tributaries, saltwater intrusion started two months earlier than usual and reached 20km to 30km further inland than normal.

As a result, more than 429,500 hectares of crops were damaged, severely hitting rice production. According to the UN, 500,000 hectares (1.2m acres) of rice paddyare still under threat and 300,000 households have had no income for many months.

More than 10,000 households in 11 provinces have had to be supplied with bottled water, and water purification tablets. Rain has reportedly returned to Vietnam’s parched coffee belt but around 20% of all coffee trees have either been killed or damaged.

Mongolia

This winter, Mongolia suffered a particularly severe dzud, or winter of snow, blizzards and temperatures as low as minus 50°C. It has been a disaster for tens of thousand of herder families who