THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Why L&G is a Candidate for Privatization (Calvin Tan)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 10 Jul 2017, 01:15 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi guys,
By now I am posting the 3rd article on L&G,
Why I think L&G might be a candidate for privatization?
These are my reasons:
1) L&G is a Cyclical Stock like Prestar, Masteel, Insas, Jaks & others.
Prestar and Masteel are Cyclical Steel Stocks. In boom times price surge upward. In bad times prices can collapse. Same goes for Jaks as it depends on water piping business. And Insas depends on Market Trading Mood. When KLSE is hot - INSAS will rise up. If cool down INSAS share price will also go down
And L&G being a Property Stock is also subjected to quarter by quarter result. When sales of houses & condos are up - prices will go up & vice versa.
Now L&G has already completed most of its projects. So the need for acquisition of more land banks are needed.
And coinciding with Country Garden facing constrain due to China Capityal Control - Country Country together with Mayland is disposing their DAIMOND TOWHSHIP PROJECT in Semenyih to L&G.
The Chinese word "Ngai kay" is a compound of 2 words - "Crisis" & "Opportunity"
In the Crisis of Country Garden is the opportunity for L&G.
So L&G has bought up a total of 4 Housing Developments
1) 257 ACRES OF LANDS WITH COMPLETED & PARTIALLY COMPLETED HOUSES IN DAIMOND CITY, SEMENYIH
167 ACRES OF FREEHOLD LANDS IN SERENDAH, RAWANG FOR LANDED HOUSES
2) 15.3 ACRES OF LANDS FOR HIGHRISE CONDOS IN SRI KEMBANGAN
3) 4.6 ACRES OF CONDO LANDS IN SRI UKAY, AMPANG
4) 1.78 ACRES OF FREEHOLD LANDS IN TAMAN SRI HARTAMAS, KL FOR LUXURY HIGHRISE CONDOS
These are lands which are already converted for housing. So there is a fair price with the hope of good profits.
To Calvin there is only a 50/50 chance of success.
L&G also own hectares of lands in Kerling
See
2 Ladang Kerling Mukim Kerling District of Ulu Selangor 1,009.71 hectares....freehold....Rm48,146,000
To convert to acres multiply 1,009.71 by 2.471 = 2,494.99 acres
TAnd to convert acres to sq ft
Mulyiply 2,494.99 by 43,560 = 108,681,764 sq ft
Now to calculate price of land per sq ft
Rm48,146,000 divides by 108,681,764 = 44.29 sen
or a mere 44.3 sen per sq ft.
Current land prices advertised for sale in Kerling is from Rm3.00 to Rm16 psf
depending on its location, terrain & accessibilty.
And these Lands owned by L&G in Kerling are planted with both Oil Palm & Rubber trees. There are listed as biological assets.
If we just take the price of raw lands as valued by Bank Valuers here
So 108,681,764 sq ft x Rm3 = Rm326 millions
So if revalued to current market value these Kerling lands should worth this much
Rm326 millions - Rm48.146 millions
A SURPLUS PROFIT OF RM277 Millions
Now that GEELY has gone BIG TIME into Tanjung Malim. There will surely be a spill over boom in Kerling which is only 15 minutes away
See
15 min (14.1 km) via Route 1
Since KERLING is only 15 minutes away from PROTON CITY Of Tanjumg Malim
There is a high possibility that Some Big Time Developer might offer to take L&G private. (Ecoworld took Focal Aims private at Rm1.40, UEM took Sunrise private. Tebrau taken over by IWCity, UMLand taken private by Syed Moktar, TMakmur taken private by Pahang Sultan & Johor Corp took Kulim private)
Or since GEELY will be building its futuristic Car/Submarine/plane these 2,494.99 acre of Kerling Lands might also come in handy.
No matter how you look at it L&G is bound to get a nice Windfall from its 167 acres of Serendah lands & its 2,494.99 lands in Kerling.
With the stroke of luck the positives for L&G now outweights its negatives.
Calvin & Johor Buddies are buying as L&G is now at Rock Bottom Price supported with 63% Discount to NTA with High Margin of safety. Plus a nice 9% dividend.
This L&G is another candidate for privatisation just like Kulim, TMakmur, TheStore, Super Enterprise & Wangzng.
Note: Johor Corp took Kulim private for building 2 Townships near booming Pengerang
There was an influx of 70,000 population into Pengerang that caused a Boom in Property prices.
So by the same token an influx of 60,000 Proton Staff & 15 Vendors into Tanjung Malim will cause a Multi Year Boom here and speading to all its surrounding regions as well.
This one catalyst will be very favourable for L&G
Good luck & good night
Regards
Calvin
Singapore
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments
Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 29, 2015 02:01 PM | Report Abuse
Good Afternoon,
This BJ Corp song was given to me by Inspiration within 5 minutes while holidaying in Hilary Beach, North of Perth, Western Australia.
Music adapted from
FIRST OF MAY - By Bee Gees (For music go to youtube "FIRST OF MAY"}
Lyrics by Calvin Tan
SONG OF BERJAYA CORP
1) OH BJ Corp! I bought it for a song;
The Mighty Stock that someday will perform.
Don't ask me why. Don't let it pass you by;
To Make Money you all Must Be Strong.
2) The Companies that Grew for you and me;
I watched them growing richer one by one.
And I will keep BJ Corp All The Way;
This is Asia's Berkshire Hathaway.
And Now for the exposition & commentary
OH BJ CORP I Bought it For a Song (Stanza 1, First line)
The idiom "bought for a song" means to buy something Very cheaply.
To me BJ Corp is already a Blue Chip over RM10.00
Calvin Tan Research can prove it mathematically by facts and figures without a trace of doubt!
So buying at 44 cents for a Share worth over RM10.00 is "Buying it For A Song". This is not paying penny for dollar; but paying penny for ten dollar bill.
This is the most unequal exchange in Bursa.
The Mighty Stock that someday will perform (1st Stanza, 2nd line)
When will BJ Corp, THE MIGHTY STOCK, rise to RM10.00?
Time Is The Essence of Investment. Just like Lafarge, UMW or Tasek.
Don't ask me why. Don't let it pass you by. (1st Stanza, 3rd line)
How did Lafarge rose from 66 cents to over RM10.00? We know now as fact
How will BJ Corp rise from 44 cents to over RM10.00?
Don't ask me why. Just don't let it pass you by. Grab some tomorrow!!
To Make Money you all Must Be Strong (1st Stanza, 4th line)
There will be doubters, naysayers & others who cannot see & will talk nonsense and discourage you. So you MUST BE STRONG IN CONVICTION & HOLD TIGHT TO YOUR PRECIOUS BJ CORP SHARES!!
Someday When BJ Corp reaches RM10.00 You Will All Be Millionaires!!
To be continued.....
Next.
Commentary on Stanza 2 of BJ Corp Song...
2017-07-10 06:58
2 years ago tan eng sing Bjcorp song with tp rm10...apa macam now? From 44c drop to 33cent adalah.
Today L&G 21c...2 years later 15c? Haha haha...see too pig tan eng sochai
2017-07-10 07:04
Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 29, 2015 02:01 PM | Report Abuse
Good Afternoon,
This BJ Corp song was given to me by Inspiration within 5 minutes while holidaying in Hilary Beach, North of Perth, Western Australia.
Music adapted from
FIRST OF MAY - By Bee Gees (For music go to youtube "FIRST OF MAY"}
Lyrics by Calvin Tan
SONG OF BERJAYA CORP
1) OH BJ Corp! I bought it for a song;
The Mighty Stock that someday will perform.
Don't ask me why. Don't let it pass you by;
To Make Money you all Must Be Strong.
2) The Companies that Grew for you and me;
I watched them growing richer one by one.
And I will keep BJ Corp All The Way;
This is Asia's Berkshire Hathaway.
And Now for the exposition & commentary
OH BJ CORP I Bought it For a Song (Stanza 1, First line)
The idiom "bought for a song" means to buy something Very cheaply.
To me BJ Corp is already a Blue Chip over RM10.00
Calvin Tan Research can prove it mathematically by facts and figures without a trace of doubt!
So buying at 44 cents for a Share worth over RM10.00 is "Buying it For A Song". This is not paying penny for dollar; but paying penny for ten dollar bill.
This is the most unequal exchange in Bursa.
The Mighty Stock that someday will perform (1st Stanza, 2nd line)
When will BJ Corp, THE MIGHTY STOCK, rise to RM10.00?
Time Is The Essence of Investment. Just like Lafarge, UMW or Tasek.
Don't ask me why. Don't let it pass you by. (1st Stanza, 3rd line)
How did Lafarge rose from 66 cents to over RM10.00? We know now as fact
How will BJ Corp rise from 44 cents to over RM10.00?
Don't ask me why. Just don't let it pass you by. Grab some tomorrow!!
To Make Money you all Must Be Strong (1st Stanza, 4th line)
There will be doubters, naysayers & others who cannot see & will talk nonsense and discourage you. So you MUST BE STRONG IN CONVICTION & HOLD TIGHT TO YOUR PRECIOUS BJ CORP SHARES!!
Someday When BJ Corp reaches RM10.00 You Will All Be Millionaires!!
To be continued.....
Next.
Commentary on Stanza 2 of BJ Corp Song...
2017-07-10 08:26
This John Lu has no clue about investment at all. And so stubborn also.
So he is going round looking for small scraps to survive.
Now you all must not miss the once in a blue moon opportunity to
grab hold of these bombed out L&G shares.
L&G Was over 65 sen in year 2014. Now dropped by 2/3 to only 21.5 sen
Being a Cyclical Stock like INSAS - L&G can also go back to 65 sen again.
2017-07-10 08:30
You all must also know that
at 21.5 sen with NTA of 58 sen L&G is selling at a whopping discount of 63% - A BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY - as advocated by Sifu Ben Graham.
And its Assets have not been revalued, esp the prime lands in KERLING
If all L&G lands are revalued you will SEE even BIGGER DISCOUNT
from Price to Book Value
2017-07-10 08:34
Dato Calvin, its NTA is not 58sen. Please adjust its recent 8:5 RI. It could reduce to 25 ~ 30sen range. Please help to do the maths for us. I also lazy to calculate, agak agak saja
2017-07-10 10:27
Cherry88
It's ok if you consider the fact that they have not revalued the Assets in KERLING (45 sen psf) and
Serendah lands at slightly above 80 sen psf.
The True NTA after complete adjustment and revaluation will still reflect a very substantial duscount from price to book value.
I am happy to buy more
2017-07-10 10:46
One more thing,
The Cash raised from Rights Issued was used to acquired 5 major assets in Daimond City, Serendah, Sri Kembangan, Ukay Heights and Sri Hartamas
So the Assets will also readjust into its new NTA later.
The substantial discount to book value remains above 60% or more.
And these Assets were purchased at attractive prices due to their distressed nature.
Country Garden facing China Capital control.
For Mayland their Parc Regency Condo was impacted due the sub con hiring illegal foreigners.
So Parc Regency Condo project in Masai, Johor was delayed leading to cost overruns.
All these have been solved.
And everything is fine now.
So Calvin Tan Reseach calls for a buy on L&G
2017-07-10 10:55
appreciate if you can discuss about the share overhang due to Rights issue, now the volume is so huge. it will need so much effort to move the share price. tq
2017-07-10 14:50
mbge7clt
For every 5 shares of L&G before Rights Issue just add 8 more shares.
So the shares are enlarge from 5 shares to 13 shares for each 5 shares.
I think from there you will be able to work out the figures.
2017-07-10 17:48
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cheated
Why need right issue earlier this year? RI means short of money.
2017-07-10 03:03