Hi Guys,
People don't Buy Dlady for its NTA because it has very little
People might have bought because of its growth story. But that is long over as it faces saturation, structural constrain as well as fierce compeition
See
So that being over why do people still cling on to Dlady?
Dividend was the reason
BUT THAT STORY IS ALSO UP
AS WE SHALL DO AN INVESTIGATION
Past past dividend history DLady clearly shows a shrinkage
See
AS YOU CAN OBSERVE FROM THE ABOVE DIVIDEND YOELDS IN COLOR BAND FOR EACH YEAR SINCE 2010 to 2018
DLADY HAS BEEN PAYING ABOVE RM2.00 DIVIDEND
ITS HIGHEST DIVIDEND PAY OUT WAS YEAR 2017 AT RM2.80
AND CHASING DIVIDEND YIELD ITS SHARE PRICE ROSE TO THE HIGHEST OF RM76.00
LAST YEAR THE DIVIDEND WAS SLASHED TO RM1.00
See
28-Nov-2019 | 12-Dec-2019 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend | RM 0.5 |
![]() |
29-Apr-2019 | 10-May-2019 | DIVIDEND | Interim Dividend |
RM 0.5 |
What happened?
For that we go inside DLady on reports
DUTCH LADY MILK INDUSTRIES BERHAD |
Financial Year End | 31 Dec 2019 |
Quarter | 3 Qtr |
Quarterly report for the financial period ended | 30 Sep 2019 |
The figures | have not been audited |
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
|
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
|
||||
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
|
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
||
30 Sep 2019
|
30 Sep 2018
|
30 Sep 2019
|
30 Sep 2018
|
||
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
$$'000
|
||
1 | Revenue |
276,313
|
257,052
|
784,905
|
777,414
|
2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
34,865
|
45,555
|
103,290
|
132,441
|
3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
25,204
|
34,213
|
76,290
|
99,147
|
4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
25,204
|
34,213
|
76,290
|
99,147
|
5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
39.40
|
53.50
|
119.20
|
154.90
|
6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
|
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
|
||||
7 | Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$) |
2.3400
|
AS WE CAN SEE REVENUE IS UP FROM LAST YEAR QTR OF RM257 MIL TO RM276 MIL OR INCREASE OF 7%
BUT THE NET PROFIT HAS GONE DOWN FROM 53.5 SEN TO 39.4 SEN OR DOWN 3.5%
THAT MEANS THAT DLADY SOLD MORE MILK BUT EARN EVEN LESS PROFIT
HOW COME?
AH
IT WAS DUE TO RISING MATERIAL COSTS
AND DUE TO FIERCE COMPETITION (CUT THROAT PRICES BY NESTLE & GOOD DAY MILK) DLADY IS UNABLE TO RAISE ITS SALE PRICES
SINCE DLADY OUTSOURCED MATERIAL PUCHASE FROM PRIVATE FARMS THERE IS ALSO NO WAY DLADY CAN CUT ITS COSTS
COST EVEN GO UP AS GOVT MANDATES LOWEST BENCH WAGE NOW AT RM1,200 (IT WAS RM900 SOME TIME AGO)
SO DLADY IS UNABLE TO EARN MORE (IF FACT IT SHRUNK)
AND SO YEAR 2019 DLADY MANAGED TO SQUEEZED OUT ONLY RM1.00 DIVIDEND (Twice at 50 SEN EACH Time)
AT RM41.60 CLOSING PRICE MORNING SESSION TODAY DLADY HAS A DIVIDEND YIELD OF
RM1.00 DIVIDES BY RM41.6 = 2.4% YIELD (LOWER THAN MALAYSIA BANK FD AT 3% NOW)
SO IT IS A GRUESOME MOVE TO INVEST IN DLADY FOR ITS SMALL DIVIDEND NOW
WHAT ABOUT DIVIDEND FOR THIS YEAR OF 2020?
LET'S SEARCH DEEPER
DUTCH LADY STARTED THE YEAR OF 2019 WITH CASH OF RM64 MILLIONS
AFTER PAYING OUT RM32 MILLIONS IT HAS ONLY RM32 MILLIONS CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENT LEFT
NOW DLADY WILL FACE INVENTORY MARK DOWN DUE TO UNSOLD MILK AS RECESSION BITES
WILL DLADY BE ABLE TO PAY EVEN RM1.00 DIVIDEND FOR YEAR 2020?
THAT IS DOUBTFUL
EVEN NOW THE PRICE OF RM41.60 IS TOO OVERVALUED AS ITS DIVIDEND SUPPORT HAS CRUMBLED
SINCE DIVIDEND HAS MORE THAN HALVED FROM RM2.80 HIGH IN YEAR 2017/8 TO RM1.00 NOW OR A DROP OF 65%
SO DLADY SHOULD SHAVE OFF 65% FROM ITS PEAK OF RM65.00 TO RM26.60 (DIVIDEND VALUE)
BUT WITH SO BLEAK FUTURE CALVIN THINKS RM20.00 ALREADY OVER PRICED
ITS BUSINESS PROSPECT WILL GET MORE GRUESOME AS MANY STRONG CONTENDERS WILL BE IN PLAY IN THE MILK SUPPLY OF MALAYSIA
PLEASE SELL AND GET OUT ALL MY DEAR FRIENDS IN i3 FORUM
BEST LUCK
Calvin Tan Research
Singapore
Pls buy or sell after doing your own due diligence.
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