Hi Guys,

People don't Buy Dlady for its NTA because it has very little

People might have bought because of its growth story. But that is long over as it faces saturation, structural constrain as well as fierce compeition

See

DUTCHLADY = FACING SATURATION, STRUCTURAL CONSTRAIN & STRONG COMPETITION, Calvin Tan Research

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-01-18-story-h1482839081-DUTCHLADY_IT_IS_FACING_SATURATION_STRUCTURAL_STRONG_COMPETITION_Calvin_.jsp

So that being over why do people still cling on to Dlady?

Dividend was the reason

BUT THAT STORY IS ALSO UP

AS WE SHALL DO AN INVESTIGATION

Past past dividend history DLady clearly shows a shrinkage

See

28-Nov-2019	12-Dec-2019	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5
29-Apr-2019	10-May-2019	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5
27-Nov-2018	10-Dec-2018	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.9
27-Feb-2018	02-May-2018	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
28-Nov-2017	13-Dec-2017	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
27-Apr-2017	11-May-2017	DIVIDEND	Special Dividend	RM 0.6
28-Feb-2017	29-Mar-2017	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
29-Nov-2016	13-Dec-2016	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
23-Feb-2016	26-Apr-2016	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1000
17-Nov-2015	01-Dec-2015	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1000
24-Feb-2015	24-Apr-2015	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
25-Nov-2014	10-Dec-2014	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
25-Feb-2014	25-Apr-2014	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.1
26-Nov-2013	11-Dec-2013	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.3
26-Feb-2013	26-Apr-2013	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.3
27-Nov-2012	10-Dec-2012	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.3
24-Feb-2012	26-Apr-2012	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 1.3
15-Nov-2011	09-Dec-2011	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5
18-May-2011	01-Jun-2011	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.3
25-Feb-2011	01-Jun-2011	DIVIDEND	Final Dividend	RM 0.15
29-Nov-2010	13-Dec-2010	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5
18-May-2010	01-Jun-2010	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.3
26-Apr-2010	01-Jun-2010	DIVIDEND	Final Dividend	RM 0.15
24-Nov-2009	11-Dec-2009	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.7625

AS YOU CAN OBSERVE FROM THE ABOVE DIVIDEND YOELDS IN COLOR BAND FOR EACH YEAR SINCE 2010 to 2018

DLADY HAS BEEN PAYING ABOVE RM2.00 DIVIDEND

ITS HIGHEST DIVIDEND PAY OUT WAS YEAR 2017 AT RM2.80

AND CHASING DIVIDEND YIELD ITS SHARE PRICE ROSE TO THE HIGHEST OF RM76.00

LAST YEAR THE DIVIDEND WAS SLASHED TO RM1.00

See

28-Nov-2019	12-Dec-2019	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5
29-Apr-2019	10-May-2019	DIVIDEND	Interim Dividend	RM 0.5

What happened?

For that we go inside DLady on reports

AS WE CAN SEE REVENUE IS UP FROM LAST YEAR QTR OF RM257 MIL TO RM276 MIL OR INCREASE OF 7%

BUT THE NET PROFIT HAS GONE DOWN FROM 53.5 SEN TO 39.4 SEN OR DOWN 3.5%

THAT MEANS THAT DLADY SOLD MORE MILK BUT EARN EVEN LESS PROFIT

HOW COME?

AH

IT WAS DUE TO RISING MATERIAL COSTS

AND DUE TO FIERCE COMPETITION (CUT THROAT PRICES BY NESTLE & GOOD DAY MILK) DLADY IS UNABLE TO RAISE ITS SALE PRICES

SINCE DLADY OUTSOURCED MATERIAL PUCHASE FROM PRIVATE FARMS THERE IS ALSO NO WAY DLADY CAN CUT ITS COSTS

COST EVEN GO UP AS GOVT MANDATES LOWEST BENCH WAGE NOW AT RM1,200 (IT WAS RM900 SOME TIME AGO)

SO DLADY IS UNABLE TO EARN MORE (IF FACT IT SHRUNK)

AND SO YEAR 2019 DLADY MANAGED TO SQUEEZED OUT ONLY RM1.00 DIVIDEND (Twice at 50 SEN EACH Time)

AT RM41.60 CLOSING PRICE MORNING SESSION TODAY DLADY HAS A DIVIDEND YIELD OF

RM1.00 DIVIDES BY RM41.6 = 2.4% YIELD (LOWER THAN MALAYSIA BANK FD AT 3% NOW)

SO IT IS A GRUESOME MOVE TO INVEST IN DLADY FOR ITS SMALL DIVIDEND NOW

WHAT ABOUT DIVIDEND FOR THIS YEAR OF 2020?

LET'S SEARCH DEEPER

DUTCH LADY STARTED THE YEAR OF 2019 WITH CASH OF RM64 MILLIONS

AFTER PAYING OUT RM32 MILLIONS IT HAS ONLY RM32 MILLIONS CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENT LEFT

NOW DLADY WILL FACE INVENTORY MARK DOWN DUE TO UNSOLD MILK AS RECESSION BITES

WILL DLADY BE ABLE TO PAY EVEN RM1.00 DIVIDEND FOR YEAR 2020?

THAT IS DOUBTFUL

EVEN NOW THE PRICE OF RM41.60 IS TOO OVERVALUED AS ITS DIVIDEND SUPPORT HAS CRUMBLED

SINCE DIVIDEND HAS MORE THAN HALVED FROM RM2.80 HIGH IN YEAR 2017/8 TO RM1.00 NOW OR A DROP OF 65%

SO DLADY SHOULD SHAVE OFF 65% FROM ITS PEAK OF RM65.00 TO RM26.60 (DIVIDEND VALUE)

BUT WITH SO BLEAK FUTURE CALVIN THINKS RM20.00 ALREADY OVER PRICED

ITS BUSINESS PROSPECT WILL GET MORE GRUESOME AS MANY STRONG CONTENDERS WILL BE IN PLAY IN THE MILK SUPPLY OF MALAYSIA

PLEASE SELL AND GET OUT ALL MY DEAR FRIENDS IN i3 FORUM

BEST LUCK

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

Pls buy or sell after doing your own due diligence.