THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
From Permafrost to Precipitation, Calvin Tan Research (At what stage is Glove, Steel/Aluminium & Palm Oil Stocks currently?
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 08 May 2021, 01:00 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,705
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
This is a reposted article
The Eight Stages of A Hot Air Balloon Stock
NOTE: THIS ALSO APPLY TO CYCLICALS LIKE GLOVES, STEEL/ALUMINIUM & PALM OIL
Stage No. 1. PermaFrost
Snow that is frozen for 2 or more years are called permafrost
perma - as in perma-nent
frost - be freezed over
This is the stage of a really dead stock that no research house will bother. Not a single soul is interested. The exception must be the only one in ten thousand who dare to buy any.
Stage No. 2. Thawing
Frozen Solid Ice starts to thaw or soften a little
A very slight passing glance by some value investors or deep value hunters. Only the very brave who SEE VALUE Will dare to buy some.
Stage No. 3 ICE Now Turning to Cold Water.
Some brave souls dare to venture in. Of course it's cold. Every where people pour scorn and cold water on the stock. Very few pay any attention. Remarks are usually negative. From Remisiers, fund managers, one and all. Same conclusion - the stock is not in their investment radar. So most reject it..
Stage 4. Cold Water no longer cold. It is now at room temperature.
Ha! there is a little attention paid by value investor. For the rest it is neither cold nor hot. So lukewarm response. No longer negative like before. But not positive either. A few hopeful investor starts to accumulate.
Stage 5 Water starts to boil
Ha! the heat or fire cause the water to stir a little now. There is warm and movement.
Company reports a good quarter. Or some great contract awarded - real or assumed. Some by merger news. Some favourable factors due to ringgit crash and strong US Dollar translating into higher profits. Or cheap oil benefiting rubber glove, logistic stock like transport or airline. There is now a stir in the stock.
Newspapers, analysts, experts, punters and all are paying attention now. More people talk about it in internet forum and even the media reports it.
Buyers are coming in and there is a great stir at last. Things are now coming alive. Prices moving upward. Many are making monies.
Stage 6. Boiling Water Turning Very Hot in the kettle. The water now churning in violent waves in the pot or kettle with steaming hot movements.
At long last the stock is very hot. Post after post by i3 forum member. All are universally drawn and sucked in. Like insects flying into bornfire at night there is a red hot wild attraction. As more people telling how they made killings in the stock market even more and more people are drawn into the red hot hot stock.
Those who made money early are now piling more and more monies into the red hot stock. Some even go into margin account to buy more.
Prices leap up to the cheers of all and sundry. Everyone is so happy. Happy in a sure winner. Emotion is now flying high. Any opposing view is slammed down in a frenzy. Reason is now overtaken by exuberance.
Stage No. 7. Hot Steam Rises Up The Sky As Hot Air To Form Cloud
All are now in cloud nine. Naysayers are condemned and proven wrong. The sky is the limit for the price. Can now fly to the moon or mars. More monies piled in. More suckers drawn in by greed.
This is the happiest time for all. But throwing all caution to the wind this is also now the most dangerous time to hold or buy more.
In Bursa every day the hot stock is traded in top 10 volumes
In internet forum this is the stock conversation revolves around day and night. Media reports it and tell why it should go even higher. Experts suddenly appear to tell you this time is different. The sky is the limit. Or the sky is not limit. It should fly to outer space.
See example:
Sumatech has a total of 121,603 posts
121,603 POSTS? AMAZING INDEED!
And 123 people clicked like for sumatech
All finally caught in SudaTrap
123 people like this. Showing 10 of 121603 comments. Show more comments
Hmmm?
IFCA Also got many posts & likes
55 people like this. (IFCA)
Showing 10 of 45505 comments. Show more comments
Hmmm?
Airasia also look like one now with 40,978 hot hot comments
66 people like this. (airasia)
Showing 10 of 40978 comments. Show more comments
Stage No. 8 Precipitation - Cloud falls down and crash back to earth in torrential rain.
All caught holding high flying shares on the steep fall to earth are in despair. This is the ultimate result for those who chased hot hot stocks at the very peak = total loss and bankruptcies.
See from permafrost to precipitation stocks
SUMATEC RESOURCES BERHAD [S] (1201)
Company Website
Annual Report
General Meetings
Calvin comments:
For Medical Gloves it is now at Stage 7 going to 8
For Steel/Aluminium at stage between 6 & 7
For Palm Oil now moving from Stage 3 to stage 4
SO FROM HERE THERE IS A CLEAR SIGN THAT GLOVES ARE OVERVALUED, STEEL/ALUMINIUM FULLY VALUED BUT PALM OIL STILL FAIR OR UNDERVALUE
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research
Please buy or sell AFTER doing your own due diligence. In doubt consult your remisier or Fund Manager
STAGE OF PERMAFROST (ICE FORM: SOLID AND LIFELESS) NO BODY INTERESTED IN SUCH "DEAD" STOCKS
STAGE OF A HOT STOCK (MANY PEOPLE ARE NOW HOT IN PURSUIT: HOT TOPIC AND HOT STOCK IN CONVERSATION
STAGE OF CLOUD NINE (ALL ARE IN EUPHORIA & CELEBRATION AS SHARES REACHED PEAK & HIGH UP THE SKY)
AND THOSE WHO STILL CHASE AND BUY ARE IN GREATEST DANGER: 90% OF THE PEOPLE NOW FULL OF CONFIDENCE
![Best 100+ Cloud Pictures [HQ] | Download Free Images on Unsplash](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1601529686322-350562cc5d67?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&ixid=MnwxMjA3fDB8MHxleHBsb3JlLWZlZWR8Mjl8fHxlbnwwfHx8fA%3D%3D&w=1000&q=80)
STAGE OF MARKET CRASHING DOWN
FALLING PRICES
STAGE OF LOOKING FOR SHELTER FROM THE STORM OF LOSSES
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-591910329-56f6b5243df78c78418c3124.jpg)
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 22 of 22 comments
Greedy44
Tyvm
Your ID got secret code
Greedy44??
Greedy then followed by 44?
Yes if we are greedily chasing Market At Bubble Zones then will end up die die (44)
2021-05-08 11:36
Glove stage 8 was last year overboiled and turned to steam. Then fell down to earth and now is at stage 3, warming only. Prices fell more than 60% from ATH.
2021-05-09 11:33
The direction is strong accumulation for IJMPLANT mah...!!
This company has 60k planted hectarage in sabah & indonesia, alot of its plantation is emerging as prime stage mah!
This will boost its revenue & profits with good cpo price loh...!!
U can expect superb result this coming December qtr mah...!!
Strong buy, do not missed loh!
What does this cpo price trend below tell U leh ??
Date Settlement Price RM
7 May 4788
3 Dec 3332
2 Dec 3316
1 Dec 3347
30 No 3305
27 No 3338
26 No 3227
25 Nov3285
24 No 3249
23 Nov 3326
20 Nov 3288
Ans; Rising CPO price and Rising Profit loh!!
Until Sept latest qtr result cpo average is roughly rm 2600 mah!!
December QTR we will be seeing conservatively Average Price Rm 3200, that is 23% increase in price n this increase revenue will all goes to the bottom line profit as there are no cost applicable to revenue generated from price increase loh...!!
Just imagine if Average palm oil price is Rm 2800, U already see super strong profit loh!! But now we are at above 4788 loh...!!
Can U forecast & project what will palmoil company potential super profit at rm 4500 cpo leh ?
2021-05-09 12:25
The best cpo world record prices
The best days
The best bull upside
All are still ahead as the best is yet to come
See all At The Top
2021-05-09 20:20
The whole commodities' markets, economics, supply and demands are on the upwards trends and best is yet to come.
Staying high up there for a prolonged period is good enough.
2021-05-09 20:25
Slow and steady up for Palm oil this year
What glove did last year palm oil is repeating this year
Success begets success!
2021-05-10 13:17
Calvin, u punya kpower masuk longkang liao? Plantation also starting free fall eh. Lu tau bo?
2021-10-28 13:56
Crash by up to 50% as Fed raise interest rates by 5 times
Get out of Tech or get slaughtered
2022-01-21 08:39
Those who failed to heed sell call on Gloves will also failed to escape Tech collapse as well
Only safety left now is palm oil
Palm oil is the only class that went up during the 97/98 Asian Financial Crisis
2022-01-21 08:41
Many that are in honor shall fall
Many that are fallen shall be in honor
Tech in honor now falling
Palm oil fallen out of favour will be restored to honor
The principle of boom bust
And bust to boom cycle at work
Only less than 10% knows
Sorry 90% will fail to understand
2022-01-21 08:48
For failing to understand it is set in stone that only 10% of savvy investors can make money from the most dangerous stock market while the other 90% will fail year after year and decade after decade
2022-01-21 08:51
Glove has gone to Stage 9
Any rebound is only temporary
Tech is the most dangerous now in Stage 8 & 9
Those get caught from peak hoping for rebound and those who buy on dips like stealing food for lion
Avoid Tech https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDubMeNlSxc
Palm oil safest now as it has the favourable wind of high commodity price support
Palm oil coming out of Stage 4 entering Stage 5 is now the best time to ride the bull up
2022-03-26 15:48
Tech stock is now at Stage 8 &9
USA banned Ioi corp Palmic acids.
palmic acids is used in so many many industries like infant milk formula, senior citizen milk, pet food, healthcare and many others
even napalm bomb is made from palmic acid used in Vietnam war
By banning palm oil like Sri Langka USA is facing very high inflation as palmic acid from palm oil content is 44% while soybean only got less than 18% palmic acid
USA now face very high inflation
2022-04-11 19:01
With such high inflation the people will revolt just like in Arab Spring and now Pakistan president overthrown later will happen to Sri Langka and USA
So USA must do something to stop inflation
1. Fed reduce money printing and withdraw Cash by Usd95 billion per month
2. Fed will raise interest rate
Very very bad for Tech stocks
USA tech, S&p plus down Jones will sink like the titanic
Sell all stocks and go in the safety of palm oil
Yes palm oil survived the Asian Financial Crisis
Palm oil also survived the Subprime crisis of 07/08
2022-04-11 19:06
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
greedy44
Nice article
2021-05-08 07:24