THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
7 REASONS WHY PALM OIL BULL RUN WILL TURN INTO HOTTEST SUPERBULL OF ALL TIME, Calvin Tan
calvintaneng
Publish date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022, 12:15 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,791
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Investors of i3 Forum
As the title implies we are of firm conviction that Palm oil bull run will morph into SUPERBULL
And these are the reasons
1) SYNCHRONIZED CROP FAILURE BY DROUGHT, FLOOD & WAR HAVE PROPLELLED CANOLA OIL, SOYBEAN OIL, SUNFLOWER OIL & PALM OIL TO WORLD RECORD HIGH PRICES
Drought in Canada wiped out Canola crop
Flood in Mato Grosso, Brazil & NSW of Australia impacted Soybean & Canola
Drought again hit Parana of South Brazil, Uruguay & Argentina Soybean
Then War in Ukraine has impeded Sunflower oil export.
Russia also face embargo on its sunflower oil & canola oil export
Indonesia to curb high cooking oil prices has altogether banned Cooking oil export
THIS UNISON OF SCARCITY BY DROUGHT, FLOOD & WAR ARE PUSHING UP ALL VEGE OIL AS A WHOLE
AND PALM OIL IN PARTICULAR AS INDONESIA IS TOP EXPORTER OF PALM OIL
2) LAST 4 YEARS SINCE 2018 PLANTING OF NEW PALM OIL HAS CEASED DUE TO GREENPEACE RELENTLESS ATTACK ON PALM OIL DUE TO ESG
FRANCE'S RAPESEED GROWERS SPREAD RUMOUR THAT OIL PALM KILLED ORANG UTAN
SO ARE THE SOYBEAN FARMERS OF USA AGAINST PALM OIL
WITH NO EXTRA PALM OIL PLUS A HUGE POPULATION OF 273 MILLION PEOPLE INDONESIA NOW BAN PALM OIL EXPORT
AT A NEEDY TIME LIKE NOW IT WILL MEAN VERY VERY HIGH FOOD INFLATION WORLD WIDE
3) WHILE THERE IS NO EXTRA INCREASE OF OIL PALM THE WORLD POPULATION CONTINUES TO GROW BY 80 MILLION A YEAR (1% OF WORLD POPULATION 8 BILLIONS)
4 YEARS MEAN 320 MILLION MORE MOUTHS TO FEED (ABOUT THE POPULATION OF USA)
4) NOW COST OF FERTILIZER IS UP. MAN POWER COST ALSO UP DUE TO COVID TESTING
HIGH FUEL COST FOR TRANSPORT. ALL THESE ADD UP TO TOTAL OVER ALL COST OF PRODUCTION
5) ONGOING WAR IN UKRAINE AS WE TYPE
This is now April - the crucial planting month for Sunflower oil in Ukraine. Failing which will not see any harvest by end 2022. Thus year 2023 Sunflower oil supply will also be hit hard
And right now in USA winter wheat is facing drought condition
Down South La Lina weather havoc continues....
All these can only mean Vege Oil Supply for all of 2022 till Year 2023 to be very uncertain
6) CHINA HOARDING GRAIN AND OIL
After China experienced 10 Huge Typhoons & 3 SUPER TYPHOONS AS FAR AS ITS BREAD BASKET IN HEILONGJIANG IS NOW STORING UP FOOD LIKE NO TOMORROW
So is Russia, Argentina limiting Soymeal export And now Indonesia also start hoarding Palm oil
In India Mustard Seed oil farmers are also hoarding in the Hope for better prices
7) IN USA Under Joe Biden Election Mandate many Fossil Fuel Refineries have been converted to Biodisel Refineries
This will turn food crop like Soybean & Corn into Biofuel - thus depleting Cooking Oil Supply
ALL THESE CONVERGING FACTORS ARE REAL POWERFUL CATALYSTS TO PUSH UP CPO PRICES TO NEW UNCHARTED TERRITORIES IN DAYS, WEEKS & MONTHS TO COME
A POWERFUL UNSTOPPABLE SUPERBULL RUN TIME FOR PALM OIL HAS COMMENCED
JOIN THE RIDE EARLY & DON'T MISS OUT
WARMEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager
More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Rimbunan Sawit to beef up crop production and yield, By JACK WONG (Calvin Tan comments)
Created by calvintaneng | Apr 06, 2024
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 22 of 22 comments
Good morning,
ALL THESE CONVERGING FACTORS ARE REAL POWERFUL CATALYSTS TO PUSH UP CPO PRICES TO NEW UNCHARTED TERRITORIES IN DAYS, WEEKS & MONTHS TO COME
For the past 6 months Palm oil price already at new uncharted price territories but unfortunately many plantation stocks price had not yet reach the new high due to lag factor.
So do you own risk and reward calculation and decide for yourself whether you want to invest some of you money in plantation stocks
2022-04-25 07:21
Malaysian investors prefer tech stocks rather than plantation stocks. To them tech is the future hence it looks hot and s.e.x.y, while plantation is an old school biz and boring for old uncle aunty only.
2022-04-25 07:36
If people in Malaysia will only wake up before too late
Ark Invest Cathy Wood of Tech fame already suffered crushing losses from Tech Bubble Implosion while Warren Buffet of Old School Value Investing is shinning brightly now in Value stocks
Matter of time all still holding Tech will suffer the same carnage in Glove if they still stubbornly holding Bloated Tech
listen to Voice of Reason
FED raising interest rates will piece the Tech Bubble all over the world soon into doom and gloom
2022-04-25 08:50
CPO spot reached RM8,076 on 2/3/22 when Indonesia intended to set the minimum qty for exporter to sell domestically from 20% to 30% .
How high can CPO go when it is a blanket export ban now?
2022-04-25 08:59
SBO was Usd 1,836/mt , equivalents to MR7,966.
Amid serious shortage arising from Indonesia’s export ban, CPO shouldn’t at least be on par with SBO.
2022-04-25 09:02
Fabien _the efficient capital allocator
All i care about is that i will make millions from palm oil
2022-04-25 20:20
Sure you will
If you buy early, sit tightly and wait till end 2022 and into year 2023 which 90% of the people cannot and will not do so
2022-04-25 20:34
For recent this 2 years, I focus research in palm oil stocks, I discover all palm oil stocks are severe undervalue. As value investor, ones must think reverse investing strategy to buy maximum in prefer palm oil stocks because we're never see CPO rise to 6,000-7,000-8,000 & could be higher in our life-time and CPO 6,000-7,000 tone 2022-2023 ; CPO 5,000-6,000 tone 2024-2028 can become reality to shock most of us, refer by what bro calvin tan mentioned the above important factors. I've all-in my capital investing in portfolio of combination of palm oil stocks. I believe investing in palm oil stocks are the best investment strategy during global severe food inflation & food crisis period. Retail investors can consider invest & hold palm oil stocks such as TSH / Bplant / Jtiasa / Hseng plant / IOI and many others. We're so blessing can choose a variety of palm oil stocks.
2022-04-25 23:24
ah calvin,
Indonesia bans palm oil export woh. not taking the benefit of the high cpo price to earn export money, how to earn big like that for golden agri ? what's your take yah ?
2022-04-26 08:51
smartly
goldenagri I just added another 100,000 shares yesterday
it has 6 Refineries which will now benefit from cheaper palm oil feedstock
and it's finished products of thousands by products have no restriction in export
So Goldenagri and Wilmar in downstream will benefit
2022-04-26 10:16
Soyoil closed at 90 cent
Up 200% from 30 cent range
Looks like Palm oil Superbull now will last 2 or 3 years till 2024
Many many new Millionaires, Multimillionaires and even Billionaires will come out of this Once A CENTURY Palm Oil SUPERBULL
2022-04-29 06:33
Hi, Calvin. I am a newbie investor here. How much do you think an investor should allocate their funds in palm oil sector? Is 30% enough? I don’t dare to go all out.
2022-04-29 07:38
Good question soon2795
since you are new I think 30% is a conservative amount
Then go and do own study
buy these excellent books to brush up your knowledge and skills
1. The Intelligent Investor
by Benjamin Graham
2. One up on wall street
3. Beating the Street
no. 2 and 3 by Peter
Lynch
Study first as investing is a life long journey
and best investment for life
Get the Holy Bible
Read Proverbs and Ecclesiastes
both written by the wisest man in the world called King Solomon
2022-04-29 07:57
The FCPO remaining high into 2023 is not impossible as we can see from all the circumstances and situations leading to the planting of all other grain-plants, weather, political, growing demand, protection of own needs, etc.
2022-04-29 09:37
Yes 30% is a good start loh!
Some of my friends dedicate more than 50% of their funds to plantations, they told me right now only palmoil plantations sector can show consistent strength agst the world mkt economic turmoil that lead to inflation, currency collapse and business disruption mah!
Thus they are very comfortable allocating more than 50% of their assets to this sector mah!
Posted by soon2795 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
Hi, Calvin. I am a newbie investor here. How much do you think an investor should allocate their funds in palm oil sector? Is 30% enough? I don’t dare to go all out.
2022-04-29 09:40
Calvin, I too thought of going almost 100% in CPO. However, thinking of all the losses in Steel and Tech shares, and wondering if can cover the losses from the 2 sectors and whether putting all the eggs in 1 basket is risky. !!Anyway , Calvin you have helped many times by your accurate diagnosis and gained a little, but did not heed your warning on Gloves, so suffer great losses as a result !!
2022-04-29 12:05
Investor77
Gloves, Tech, Steel and palm oil are in some sense Cyclical industries
As such timing is of utmost importance
They all go through boom and burst cycles
Missed the bottom then if the Trend is still early still can buy in
But when all the people finally capitulate and turn very bullish then we must be very careful not to get carried away
For now we are not even half way through the Palm oil Superbull yet since top 30 daily traded still not palm oil related stocks
So we can still safely add more on weakness
Go read up these two experts on CYCLICALS
PETER LYNCH
HOWARD MARKS
THEY HAVE LONG SUCCESSFUL EXPERIENCE INVESTING IN CYCLICAL STOCKS
2022-04-29 15:20
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