都督征战股海
RGB International (1) 一只当前买少见少的潜能股
第一篇就先写写有关RGB的债务和现金情况 ：
RGB是一家近年来非常积极还债的公司。从2008年债务高峰期的1.5亿，减至目前的7百万。每年都积极还债的公司，其背后的意义是公司每年有大量的现金流入。更重要的是，还债的现金无法造假。反而是多年高现金的公司可造假，尤其是中国的银行提供假现金票据。公司除了还债，暂时没有更好的投资项目，或者说公司之前已经capex过多，短期已无需再投入大量capex，目前是还债，还完后等收成? 或再求发展？
其实，RGB是在2015年第一季度，第一次转变成净现金公司。这是公司历史性转变。更值得赞叹的是，从2015年初到2016年6月30日，在短短一年半内，净现金流入高达7千万。这是少数公司所能办到的，更何况RGB只是个市值2.3亿的小小公司。一家现金流如此棒的公司，意味着其行业得天独厚，非比寻常 。
公司在短期内把净现金提到7千万。至9月30日第3季度，有望再提高到9千万。小股东们看到浮出水面的大量现金，难免会怪罪老板为何不分多点股息。但我想大家无需操之过急。试想公司在短期一年半内就把现金提升，也许还来不及回馈股东们。2015财年已经派发6.6百万股息，2016财年股息也还未宣布，就让我们耐心等候吧。如果每年股息没增加，大家再唱衰它也不迟。
由于债务还清，今年的finance cost将低于1.5million。估计可省下3 million。也就是说如果业绩没有成长，保持2015年 21 million的净利，那么2016年的净利是24 milliom。2015年 Free cash flow是41 million，2016年FCF至少会是44 million。
截至9月30日为止，预计公司手握2千万美金。公司手握美金，其目的明显，正积极在国外寻求并购计划来发展旗下的TSM业务。目前美金从6月30日的3.99汇率，上涨到9月30日的4.127。对于第3季度财报的账面上看，拥有美元的增值已经为RGB赚取3%的盈利，相等于RM2 million左右。
一家高现金流，高现金的小公司，其发展潜能非常大。因为企业可以进行很多活动，如：企业收购或入股当伙伴、扩展新区域市场、Capex、share buy back和派发更高股息。目前公司规模很小，除了菲律宾每年150 million的revenue，其他国家只有区区的一两千万而已。当公司有了足够的cash，尤其在风暴期间，大有可能与其他业者作伙伴，扩大其业务，把更多的 slot machine以高margin的TSM方式，扩大其营业额和盈利，让股东们受惠。
| Year | Borrowing | Net Cash | Finance cost | Profit | FCF |
| 1st Half 2016 | 7,445 | 71,451 | 1,102 | 12,909 | 17,654 |
| 2015 | 35,560 | 49,619 | 4,639 | 20,863 | 41,389 |
| 2014 | 66,877 | -6,237 | 7,002 | 18,526 | 39,734 |
| 2013 | 73,963 | -36,973 | 8,219 | 6,637 | 24,222 |
| 2012 | 90,331 | -59,693 | 9,377 | 6,717 | 27,789 |
| 2011 | 106,176 | -73,671 | 9,570 | -30,849 | 22,019 |
| 2010 | 128,319 | -107,144 | 10,639 | -50,884 | 14,386 |
| 2009 | 147,383 | -120,547 | 9,231 | -57,847 | -106,651 |
| 2008 | 152,633 | -116,497 | 9,555 | -2,874 | 85,207 |
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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 23 of 23 comments
For me, the above is a good article. I will consider to buy after reading.
2016-10-06 22:05
May I ask a question, if company is using the money to repay the loan, does it means it is not considered as earning? Else, why the eps for a quarter is around 0.5 sen only? Tq.
2016-10-06 22:07
Another 5 yrs if cash flow also consistent like this, can buy one small casino liao
2016-10-07 01:15
Dudu, can you please explain how you achieved a FCF of 41389 from AR 2015. I understand FCF= net cash from operation(509290)- PPE(23888)+proceed from sales of PPE(2070)=31111 and not 41389. Thank you
2016-10-07 10:21
Cheahsk, FCF has few methods of calculation. To decide which method to use is base on your own analysis purposes. For me, I will ignore the changes of working capital(Receivables + Inventories + Payable) because total amount of these 3 items will go plus & minus , year by year eventually the net effect is almost = 0
2016-10-07 10:58
But if I take EPS, RGB is around 12 based on 2015 earning. Even if I take first half of 2016 and annualise it, it still around PE of 10. Is it realy cheap? I am not familiar with FCF, actually how we use FCF in calculating the company. What does it means if FCF is high? I know it means more free cash, but is it more important than Profit? Too many questions in my head...
2016-10-07 14:56
take a look at lonbisc, PE 7... Profit is good..But why is it still keep dropping? FCF is the answer!
2016-10-07 15:19
Profit is just like temporary paper gain in accounting system.
FCF is the real earning where real money inflow.
2016-10-07 15:42
Jian, RGB can consider as a long term investment counter. As long as it's business is on the right track, it will continue to create values. Previous years, we noticed that profit grow is a bit slow, but this year 2016, 30 percentage profit grow is projected based on current business progress. Growing speed will accelerate even more in 2017, especially 2018.
我无法预测RGB未来股价能去到多少，或是股价什么时候会起，因为这是没有意义的。我们应该深入研究RGB的盈利未来会不会增加，或有没有前途。
我放上冯时能冯老先生的教诲。。。。
冯时能 ：股票的价格，是跟公司的盈利成正比的。就是说当这个公司的盈利一直上升的时候，股票的价格迟早会跟着上。当然有时候时间上有差别，但是如果这个公司的盈利是一步一步上升的话，这个股票迟早会跟着上升的。所以与其去预测这个股价什么时候会起，不如研究这个公司的盈利会不会增加，或有没有前途。如果有前途的话，你低价的时候买进，拿着它作为一个长期投资，你赚钱的机会就很高。
2016-10-08 10:38
Biz nature are much easier to understand.
Excellent balance sheet that can ride on and prevailing any storm .
2016-10-08 10:52
strong cash flow --> more bullet for more/bigger business expansion/investment opportunities --> higher topline/bottomline growth
strong cash flow --> lowering debt interest/increasing interest income
strong cash flow --> increasing dividend payout --> higher dividend yield --> strong support base for stock price
2016-10-08 12:07
Benjamin，VenFx，这股还有很长的路要走。公司的盈利绝对是一步一步来的。不像其他行业，盈利可以一下冲上来。目前分析的只是账面情况，strong finance position 是投资基础，底线是不会倒，让投资者安心投资。目前投资卖点只能说是从坏变好。更重要的还是要分析公司接下来这几年的业务发展，到底能够走多远。还是保持现状？我也还在收集资料中。。。。
2016-10-08 15:17
DUDU, really a good article with depth in analysis. Expecting you next article on RGB
2016-10-08 15:55
Good article.
Should change in working capital be included in FCF?
Free cash flows means what it really mean; the net hard cash inflow/outflow after capital expenses. That also includes the need for increase in net working capital.
For a going concern, especially for a growing company, there should be overall increase in net working capital over the years, not necessary increase every year, but a trend of increase.
A growing company requires to increase its material purchases, inventories, more money to fund those payments first, before a company produces the goods to sell and then collect payable.
Ignoring change in working capital inevitably overstates the amount of free cash flows, and hence the value of a business.
2016-10-10 07:38
Wow, really love thus kind of atmosphere. I can learn fromDudu and kcchongnz .
2016-10-10 08:44
Thanks for kcchong's advice. Including the change in working capital into FCF will finally make you more confuse & make wrong conclusion when analyse company actual FCF status.
Inventory, Recevable and payable may have big change each year. Including these amount in calculation will finally show inconsistant amount of FCF each year. In other words, the FCF amount you calculate will show big vary each year.
When this happened, it is confusing to analyse FCF for such campany. The actual company's FCF performance is hidden behind by using this method. The only way you can do is to average up pass few years FCF.
When doing average up, actually you are aware of the inconsistant of the change in working capital. The average of "change in working capital" each year, plus & minus add up will eventually go to "0" or increase just a bit as you mention due to company grow, need more inventory. The raw inventory grow each year will be small significant.
When do averaging, it is more inacurate methode due to pass 5 years FCF is far different from now. More over you can't even see the trend of FCF increasing each year till todate. Whereby the increasing trend of FCF is the most important to access a company performance.
13/10/2016 08:15
2016-10-13 08:24
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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50% speculating, trying to predict this year's free cash flow, predict company will pay the debt and facts that is all in annual report
2016-10-06 15:48