都督征战股海
RGB International (2) 未来是否经得起金融风暴的考验
第二篇写写RGB未来是否经得起金融风暴的考验：
目前大多数投资者，有如惊弓之鸟，一看到世界负面新闻，股市大跌，真不知要卖出持股，还是要趁便宜买入。卖出要亏钱，买入又怕选错股中套。明明是秉持着冷眼大师的投资哲学，但是又怕选股不到家，买入烂股大跌，尤其自己心态又不好，也没经历过每十年一次的金融风暴，投资真的让人难熬。
a）Finance position ： 也只有那些经得起金融风暴的公司，能屹立不倒，才能够做长期投资。所以选对股、还要买对价码，变得很重要。无可否认。目前RGB强大的现金流，是这股的卖点。没有大笔债务的拖累，也是轻易能通过金融风暴的因属之一。保留大笔现金来应对金融风暴的冲击，在市场低潮时收购业务，也是上上之策。总的来说，RGB在finance position这方面，无可置疑是已经能轻易通过考验。
|
Year |
Rev | EPS | FCF pershare | Net cash pershare |
| 2016 1st half | 114,087 | 0.97 | 1.33 | 5.37 |
| 2015 | 233,006 | 1.57 | 3.11 | 3.73 |
| 2014 | 214,646 | 1.39 | 2.98 | -0.47 |
| 2013 | 139,635 | 0.5 | 1.82 | -2.78 |
| 2012 | 187,398 | 0.5 | 2.09 | -4.48 |
| 2011 | 118,211 | -2.32 | 1.65 | -5.53 |
| 2010 | 158,614 | -3.82 | 1.08 | -8.05 |
| 2009 | 170,202 | -4.34 | -8.01 | -9.05 |
| 2008 | 227,809 | -0.22 | 6.4 | -8.75 |
| 2007 | 276,307 | 2.88 | -2.91 | -7.35 |
b) 行业 ： 以行业来看，RGB是否也一样通关？也许有人会说没问题。经济不好，尤其是发展或刚起步开发中国家，中低层的人民在经济不景时更好赌。其实这种说法也无法证明。也许我们可以试用之前的数据来探讨。看看我提供的图表，可以看到RGB在2008年到2011年都是连年亏损。这期间适逢金融风暴之年。是否跟2008年风暴有关系？这个需要看回之前发生的事项了。之前菲律宾并非RGB主要营收来源国，反而柬埔寨才是主要营收来源国，哪里也有属于RGB本身的Clubhouse。RGB把大部分的老虎机都置放在柬埔寨。2009年，柬埔寨新政府不再更新赌博执照于国内所有Clubhouse，只颁发给Casino。结果来自柬埔寨的营收大跌。除了柬埔寨，2008年的金融风暴对老虎机的生意影响，并不显著。也许只能说越南有影响。（到目前为止，只能看到这些）
| Year | 菲律槟 | 柬埔寨 | 越南 | 辽国 | 大马 |
| 2016 1st half | |||||
| 2015 | 156m | 28m | 17m | 12m | 12m |
| 2014 | 169m | 27m | 3m | 9m | 3m |
| 2013 | 92m | 21m | 3m | 8m | 8m |
| 2012 | 129m | 32m | 6m | 6m | 4m |
| 2011 | 47m | 35m | 12m | 3m | 9m |
| 2010 | 58m | 46m | 8m | 6m | 8m |
| 2009 | 82m | 48m | 1m | 4m | 13m |
| 2008 | 62m | 124m | 8m | 3m | 8m |
| 2007 | 93m | 103m | 10m | 2m | 28m |
c) 管理层处理风险的行为 ： 由于之前管理层大量把老虎机置放在柬埔寨，当新政府拒绝更新赌博执照后，大概有2000架老虎机无法运作，不止营收大跌，现金流大缩水，每年还需作庞大的depreciation。2009，2010，2011年大亏。Depreciation从高峰的72m降到目前的30m，capex也控制在20m的舒适水平。很明显这些年来，管理层已经得到之前的教训： 1）不敢乱借贷 2）不敢乱Capex
| Year | Capex | Depreciation | Profit |
| 2016 1st half | 11,230 | 15,193 | 12,909 |
| 2015 | 23,889 | 28,360 | 20,863 |
| 2014 | 14,573 | 27,211 | 18,526 |
| 2013 | 23,626 | 34,501 | 6,637 |
| 2012 | 31,337 | 43,664 | 6,717 |
| 2011 | 25,120 | 49,824 | -30,849 |
| 2010 | 17,513 | 71,780 | -50,884 |
| 2009 | 135,524 | 52,215 | -57,847 |
| 2008 | 98,965 | 59,824 | -2,874 |
| 2007 | 121,037 | 41,009 | 38,302 |
当然这也限制了公司的发展。但是，是否真没大发展了？与其说没发展，不如说管理层更谨慎发展。看看菲律宾的营收增加，越南和辽国也看到成长。今明年，Nepal这新市场相信也会报捷。目前菲律宾营收160m，远远胜过其他国家的10~30m。RGB如此依赖菲律宾，难道不怕历史重演，像柬埔寨那样赌博执照被政府拒绝更新？原来菲律宾的赌博执照和新加坡颇为相识，都是20~50年给与经营。而其他国家是yearly renew，所以居于风险关系，置放在这些国家的老虎机数量不会多。这也是让我觉得安心的地方。最近Datuk Chuah有在The Star 有意扩大生意范围至东欧和南美洲市场。（下一集分享，也许可以来谈谈公司的发展。）
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3 people like this. Showing 44 of 44 comments
If anyone can predict the future earnings through news then most probably he's lying~ the way is to buy undervalued stocks and please justify why it's undervalued?
2016-10-10 16:47
If you want to talk about potential earnings, look at ekovest, gadang, gkent. They already grab the contract with specific amount, easier to estimate and predict future i guess?
2016-10-10 16:50
Younginvestor92 应该读不懂华语吧。现在高价才来买Ekovest, gadang, gkent？我gadang买是在RM1.10, Gkent买在1.3的价位。当时可能你还不知gadang，Gkent这支股？ Ekovest就不买了。买股是要低价买，高价买股能赚多少？我不会高价买股，看得懂这篇文章的含义吗？就是要告诉大家，买股要先考虑风险，做好风险管理才买股。
再让你看看冯老先生的教诲吧，也不懂你看得明白吗？
冯时能 ：股票的价格，是跟公司的盈利成正比的。就是说当这个公司的盈利一直上升的时候，股票的价格迟早会跟着上。当然有时候时间上有差别，但是如果这个公司的盈利是一步一步上升的话，这个股票迟早会跟着上升的。所以与其去预测这个股价什么时候会起，不如研究这个公司的盈利会不会增加，或有没有前途。如果有前途的话，你低价的时候买进，拿着它作为一个长期投资，你赚钱的机会就很高。
冯时能 ：真正赚钱的是那些，是那些能够从基本面，经过非常深入的研究、非常严肃的考虑，然后低价买进。。。听好。。。低价买进好股长期持有的人。这种人才是股市里面的长胜军。
2016-10-10 17:23
I think Younginvestor92 don't understand Chinese lah....Only understand data inside the table.
2016-10-10 17:28
Oic...then time for you to give an estimate of the price of RGB? Well i already understand how low the risk to invest in RGB, but since you're so good, give a TP and justify?
2016-10-10 17:32
Good analysis Dudu , but i thing have to consider is RGB is rely too much on Philiphine market . will philiphine new president going to control Philiphine casino business after settle his drug war ?
2016-10-10 17:58
As I see, you are so keen to know the TP, I think you are always refer to investment bank articles and you are too rely on their TP. Let me tell you only investment bank analyst would like to give TP. TP is the reference for those who didn't study but still want to buy shares. When gadang at price of 1.10, not even one article write for this counter. Because that's the time big player collecting. When gadang price reach 2.50 where big player are full, several investment bank started to publish articles with TP. Please understand what were their motif behind.
2016-10-10 18:09
When you want to buy shares, study company fundamental, understand company future, try to find out whether the company's profit will grow is much important than wasting time to look for TP. Because when company profit gradually growing, share price soon will reach higher. That's only the matter of time.
2016-10-10 18:17
Ctychew, Actually invest in Genting Malaysia is much riskier than RGB in term of gambling Licence. In Malaysia, our gambling licence is issued by Kementerian Kewangan Malaysia whereby the licence have to renew yearly. Do you see the risk? 在大马国会或宪法内，并没有说明或保证赌博执照可以每年被更新。在菲律宾和新加坡，赌博执照是国会通过，制定宪法后，Licence才发出去的，而且是给与20~30年经营。像新加坡是50年经营，你说那个国家会比较安全？
2016-10-10 18:32
New Casino named Okada Manila(USD2b = RM8b) is going to have soft launch on 15 Nov 2016. Do you think new president will control Philiphine casino business? Another 2 big casino to come Solaire Quezon & Resort World Bayshore.
2016-10-10 18:45
lol....paperplane....i really want to see how you look like in real life...no joke hahha.....u can create so many accounts and talk to yourself hahhahahha
2016-10-10 18:56
毛大，这股除了股数太多，大股东股权不集中以外，暂时也没有什么坏处。散户在之前0.19~0.20中套，所以这个阻力比较强大。如果能破0.20然候站上此价位，意味着有大股东介入。我是期望只要业绩逐渐进步，一定能吸引长期投资者入场。
2016-10-10 19:07
Sorry, I'm not paperplane. Many people here know me. 我是大都督。
Ofcouse you don't need to take my advice. You have your choice.
2016-10-10 19:10
大都督，想跟你分享下，在上个agm的时候私底下我有跟Mr chuah 聊了几句，他说对不起以前0.60 买进的股东们，然后他的目标就是让股价回到以前，说的很诚恳，但是什么时候我就不知道了
2016-10-10 21:02
Zzzz someone talking to himself.... damn weird...... eh bro sorry to have higher iq to know ur trick.... so weird seriously, keep asking self question and answer.... schizophrenia?
2016-10-10 22:22
做么不好好学投资赚钱，却在这里浪费时间说不3不4? 是分享还是骗人一看便知道了呀。这样低的价钱买入是骗人，难道要叫人家买3块钱高价的gadang，才是对的? 是这个人是马来仔吗?
2016-10-10 22:47
The industry is still registering commendable growth. RGB should continue to do well.
https://www.pokernews.com/news/2016/07/philippines-casinos-on-the-rise-25420.htm
http://focusgn.com/casino-gaming-market-in-the-philippines-2016-2020
Though the prospect has become a little uncertain now due to Duterte's hard stance policy.
2016-10-10 23:24
Hi younginvestor, I am a newly registered i3 member. This is my maiden post. I have been a silent reader for past few years in i3. Please do not regard myself to be Dudu's avatar. I am independent, have not met Dudu in person b4, but I am his keen follower in investalks. Pls do not treat this is Dudu's yet another multi-id.
From what I see u may have been
2016-10-11 07:11
U may feel unsecured / provoked /agitated for his ability to come out with a much in-depth and well written analysis at no charge to all viewers. Unlike someone who charges rm250 for a moderate or superficial study, Dudu is 100 miles ahead in terms of analyzing skills and efforts put in.
Please visit investalks and go to Dudu's editorial page, read for yourself how much he has written, how in-depth and detail study being made to each stock being scrutinized and analyzed.
Do not simply accuse ppl creating multi-id and doing self-praise.
2016-10-11 07:34
Again, I want to stress that I am not Dudu's ball licker but have been tracking closely all his calls and I shd say I have made handsomely from most of his calls.
Instead of feeling intimidated / unsecured, why don't u browse through all his investalks posting to witness or verify for yourself his quality works. U may learn the skills and improve on your own analysis.
2016-10-11 07:49
이 안전하고 안전한 환경에서 온라인 홀덤을 수행 할 많은 사람들이 있으며,그들이 포커 성을 사용하여 안전하고 언제든지 즐길 수 있습니다. 이벤트에서 당신은 이것 좀 봐.포켓캐슬앱 사이트,당신은 온라인 홀덤에 대한 점점 http://www.pokercastle.app/ 더 많은 지식을 잡을 수 있습니다.
2022-09-20 13:24
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younginvestor92
Everything you say is in the annual report~ What's the point of repeating? Just say how much you think RGB is worth? And justify why~ Talk east talk west and copy from news and annual report for?
2016-10-10 16:44