Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-21 21:44 | Report Abuse

Since choivo seems very well versed with rimjob ( I did not even know such a word exists?), I will let him to continue on enjoying such activity. Please keep it to yourself and 1 meter away from others.

As for salty and whacking kc for no reason, I feel I am justified more and more each day.

First whackjob KC says don't listen to stock tips while all the while running a stockpick subscription service. Wow, the audacity. Almost as bad as a kid selling a research report for 5K, while never profiting from his own research report.

Then he goes around and talks bad about OPM, a topic which he has admitted zero knowledge about other than vague concepts and bad things that have happened to other people ( while avoiding the fact that his great heroes Warren buffet, Peter lynch, basically every fund manager out there is benefiting greatly from OPM).

After all, what is OPM but using other people's money ( debt) to generate a superior return compared to using cash alone.

I mean if I started writing books and articles based on phony track record and results of xx share here and XX share there, and my sister or wife or best friend started buying recommended stocks from kcchongnz/choivo based imaginary/nonexistent results, I'd be very "salty" too.

No reason? Really?

>>>>>>>>>>

But the tone of it, and how Phillip just cannot bear but to whack kc etc for no reason.

Posted by leno > 2020-04-22 11:01 | Report Abuse

Just a reminder. Thou shall not ask or teach ppl to use margin.
Margin is for professional.
Even professional also many jump building using margin.
U can continue tok kok about on which stock or business to invest.
But margin is not something u wan other ppl to play with. Because u dunno wat other ppl ability or availability. Unless u agree to take responsibilty to those who follow u to use margin. Mean they die, u must die together. Are u ?
Below is a simple but yet very powerful philossphy on margin written by someone very respectable in investing world. Sekian.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/WTF/2015-01-13-story68322-WTF_about_SHARE_MARGIN.jsp

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 12:13 | Report Abuse

Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 21, 2020 9:44 PM | Report Abuse

As for salty and whacking kc for no reason, I feel I am justified more and more each day.
==========


hahaha........

all in the name of diversity of opinions.......

supply and demand........as long as there is demand for such services, there will be somebody who will supply the services..........$ billion industry.

asymmetric relationship between the paid teacher and the students. Yet, they have the gall to tell their students ( who no doubt are novices) , final decision is yours. And they assume no responsibilities for losses incurred.


"Don't listen to tips..........but I got tips, u want or not?"

"Don't use margin because they want to project a responsible conservative image."


" Rice bowl - why u want to disturb my rice bowl?"

why?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-22 12:57 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Tell me the truth. Have you use margin finance before?

Posted by klsetitan > 2020-04-22 13:24 | Report Abuse

Thanks Philip, I learn something today from your article.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 13:27 | Report Abuse

1. Cats should never use margin.
2. Cats should never use margin to buy INSAS.
3. Self promotion is very good. Another one without any portfolio but say he is very respectable in investing world.

Sekian.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by leno > Apr 22, 2020 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

Just a reminder. Thou shall not ask or teach ppl to use margin.
Margin is for professional.
Even professional also many jump building using margin.
U can continue tok kok about on which stock or business to invest.
But margin is not something u wan other ppl to play with. Because u dunno wat other ppl ability or availability. Unless u agree to take responsibilty to those who follow u to use margin. Mean they die, u must die together. Are u ?
Below is a simple but yet very powerful philossphy on margin written by someone very respectable in investing world. Sekian.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/WTF/2015-01-13-story68322-WTF_about_...

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 14:14 | Report Abuse

no... I never had a margin account....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 14:21 | Report Abuse

but I can understand why margin is a wealth creation tool

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 14:22 | Report Abuse

what I have is a Rhb, cash upfront internet account.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 14:24 | Report Abuse

never take out money never inject new money into it for many years already.... for me, it's just a toy box

Posted by stockraider > 2020-04-22 16:26 | Report Abuse

Like that how to get rich leh ??

If u act like a pondan, u always will be a pondan mah...!!

Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 22, 2020 2:24 PM | Report Abuse

never take out money never inject new money into it for many years already.... for me, it's just a toy box

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 16:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Apr 22, 2020 4:26 PM | Report Abuse

Like that how to get rich leh ??
=================



never see rich pondans? I have...........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 18:23 | Report Abuse

proper application of margin is the same as proper application of cash transactions.....................no difference.....


do not understand why kc says can buy but cannot margin............

logically.........can buy means can margin.................cannot margin then cash also cannot buy..................




kc.........correct or not?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-22 18:28 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
I have not see rich pondans but I heard of a story about well to do gay. The story go round like this:

For four friends who finally got to see after such a long time, the achievement of their sons was the center of discussion, and the success story of one of them trumped that of others by a wide margin.

Thirty years is a long time gone without having to see one’s childhood friends. Such was the tale of four grown men who finally set eyes on each other after a long period. The first port of call for these men after the necessary and warm greetings happened to be the bar and it is there that the story unfolds.

The four men are drinking and chatting happily. While they are at it, one of them excuses himself as he needs to urinate. The others kept on discussing, and the success of their sons was their topic of discussion.

The first man gave glowing praise to his son, saying how he is such a joy to him. He explains how his son rose from the bottom of his company to become the president of the company. His son is now so rich to the extent that he gave his best friend a high-class Mercedes for his birthday.

The second man is amazed at the feat and tells about his son too. He also reveals that his son is his pride and joy. His son became a pilot after attending flight school, and then rose to become a significant partner in the company; he is now so rich that he bought his best friend a brand new jet for his birthday.

The third man is overly impressed and gives accounts of his son’s success. His son is a successful engineer who started his own engineering company, becoming a multimillionaire in the process. Now he is so rich that he bought his best friend a 30,000 square feet mansion for his birthday.

At this juncture, the fourth man is making his return from the restroom and meets his friends congratulating each other on their sons' successes. He asks why they are doing this, and they explain to him that they are proud of their sons. They then ask him about his son.

He smiles and reveals that his son is gay. The others are thrown back and feel for their friend, saying he must be sad about the development.

To their surprise, he says he is not, that he loves his son in spite of all that and that he is also doing well for himself.

He goes on to say that his son’s birthday was two weeks ago and that he received a beautiful 30,000 square foot mansion, a brand new jet, and a high-class Mercedes form his three boyfriends.

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 18:41 | Report Abuse

Wow qqq3, the world has a CEO now? Who is he?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 18:44 | Report Abuse

philips...............world CEO, realists and myself included expects a U shaped recovery with a long recession...........


with this in mind.......what to do? what can buy?


You can divide shares into two groups..........

- A> the beneficiaries.......medical supplies, gloves, telecommunications

- B> the harmed/ risky sectors..............



all the money will be going to Group A ( eventually , if not already, making this group highly over valued)....and one day will crash.

the contrarians will hunt in Group B............and be disappointed when things are down longer and more severely affected than anticipated.




with this in mind.......what to do? what can buy?


me? I stick with Group A..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 18:45 | Report Abuse

world CEOs....................not I say one..........its from a reputable survey..............

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-22 18:50 | Report Abuse

As for me, it really doesn't matter to me if it takes longer or shorter to recover, 3 months to recover or 3 years for the market to recover.

I'm not a trader and I don't buy something just because it is cheap and sell something just because the price went up.

I try to buy a business or pieces of a wonderful business at a fair price. Therefore in this case, I don't really care what the long term market is like, as I invest in businesses that can make money over a long period of time.

Most of the time, I hope to never sell a wonderful business that I own.

In any case, investment is about paying money today for a return in the future.

The future that I am betting on will not include covid. When it will be I don't know, but I do know it won't be tomorrow.

But in any case, what to buy is a relative term, as your investment philosophy and mine are totally different.

I wish you good luck, you can choose to stand aside, watch the world burn, or buy stocks when everyone is running away. Selling a stock today should not be an option, unless you need money to survive.

Your choice.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 19:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 22, 2020 6:50 PM | Report Abuse

As for me, it really doesn't matter to me if it takes longer or shorter to recover, 3 months to recover or 3 years for the market to recover.
====================


3 years later, no covid...........

but if it is the 1930s charts...............have u seen the 1930s charts?

they say , what we have witnessed the last several weeks is dead cat bounce of 1929.....................................


shares as pieces of businesses...........

businesses such as yinson will not be able to survive..............not with $ 20 oil......


and valuation of assets changes..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 19:35 | Report Abuse

there is no off shore oil driller that can survive at these prices......asset prices are still expecting US $ 40 - US$ 50 oil in a few months......

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-22 19:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 19:40 | Report Abuse

I not gay But, there are gays in this world because a certain percentage of gays is needed for survival of the species...............


mathematicians can even calculate the optimum size of gay populations........hahahaha

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 19:42 | Report Abuse

Dayang? This one u have to pray very hard...........All service providers in Texas ham kar chan already...........................

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-22 19:45 | Report Abuse

just as ebola is still here
so the future will include covid-19, ebola and HIV

if not handled properly Malaysia will have lockdowns also for months of June and July and also Sept and Oct

the 1 month gaps for meant for people to go for kenduri, weddings funerals etc and deputy ministers to have makan makan to spread the virus around.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 19:48 | Report Abuse

me? The whole world is following the Wuhan model but there is only one China...........and so I think the rest will not have the fast successful out come like China................................................

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-22 19:54 | Report Abuse

in Malaysia the ministers and deputies and warlords will be very busy spreading the virus around.
Expect more lockdowns for the months of June+July and Sept+Oct

this is assuming May and August to be frantic virus spreading months

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-22 20:00 | Report Abuse

some thing like that

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-04-22 20:05 | Report Abuse

covid 19 will ONLY be stable once everyone (100%) has been infected and Malaysian deaths exceed 100,000. estimated to be around 150,000 deaths

once everyone infected, those who will die has already died then ONLY life in Malaysia will become normal.

after that business as usual.

until covid-19 randomly mutates again. Then history repeats itself.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 00:29 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 22, 2020 6:50 PM | Report Abuse

As for me, it really doesn't matter to me if it takes longer or shorter to recover, 3 months to recover or 3 years for the market to recover.

I'm not a trader and I don't buy something just because it is cheap and sell something just because the price went up.

I try to buy a business or pieces of a wonderful business at a fair price. Therefore in this case, I don't really care what the long term market is like, as I invest in businesses that can make money over a long period of time.

Most of the time, I hope to never sell a wonderful business that I own.

In any case, investment is about paying money today for a return in the future.

The future that I am betting on will not include covid. When it will be I don't know, but I do know it won't be tomorrow.

But in any case, what to buy is a relative term, as your investment philosophy and mine are totally different.

I wish you good luck, you can choose to stand aside, watch the world burn, or buy stocks when everyone is running away. Selling a stock today should not be an option, unless you need money to survive.

Your choice.

================



very good mentality...........but better if u don't have yinson..........this one cannot survive if oil below $ 30 for long because if drillers die, yinson also die................and right now, all off shore drillers die...........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 00:34 | Report Abuse

Yinson is currently valued on basis that oil will recover to US$ 40 - 50 range within a few months.........if not, its not sustainable.......

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 00:47 | Report Abuse

its pro active, consistent and confidence..............any share, anyone with all 3 should be ok..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 00:51 | Report Abuse

group A or Group B shares?

this is the best way to look at stock market.


On the basis that it is a U shaped recovery, not a V shaped recovery....only Group A shares makes sense.............


Outside Group A..........it does not make sense no matter how cheap it looks on various metrics.................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 09:17 | Report Abuse

Philips..............your QL also hitting a block in the form of Tesco going to CP Group.........They are going to stock their eggs not your eggs..........so how?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 09:18 | Report Abuse

be proactive....................reactive too late already...........

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-23 09:34 | Report Abuse

Aiyoh, please take another look at yinson contracts again. Why everyone including yourself still assuming yinson business model is the same as armada and sapura?

I repeat to you one more time ya, the contracts written are based on man labor day rate. Their contract is a 8-25 year TRANSPORTATION contract and storage contract, which everyone is looking for now to store the unsold oil.

They are not a driller or epcc where they have a share in the profits of oil sold, like armada and sapura.

You are comparing a offshare Dialog Vs a oil explorer.

Fyi not all O&G firms are all the same thing. You really need to understand what you are buying, otherwise you will think hibiscus,carimin,dayang,sapura and armada all do the same business, which is very far from the truth.

Most importantly, you need to understand how the penalties are done if they cancel there contract with YINSON.

Delay I don't see an issue because their existing orderbook in Brazil and Africa will only come online in 2023. And their existing contracts their ships are being used to store the oil, since they can't pump it back into the sea.

So I don't see why they would cancel, especially since cancellation penalties would give yinson free FPSO that the can deploy to store I'll for other clients.

Get your business sense right, YINSON is not a driller, YINSON is a floating DIALOG.



>>>>>>>>>>
very good mentality...........but better if u don't have yinson..........this one cannot survive if oil below $ 30 for long because if drillers die, yinson also die................and right now, all off shore drillers die...........

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-23 09:42 | Report Abuse

Just in case you missed it,

FPSO stands for floating production STORAGE and offloading.

What happens when there is no buyers? Everyone is rushing to find a place to STORE oil ( and can't just simply find a warehouse to put it ya, very flammable).

Why do you think I avoid sapura and Armada like the plague?

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-23 09:43 | Report Abuse

Gdex boy still with your fantasies? Have you had enough fun shorting star yet?

>>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Apr 22, 2020 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

covid 19 will ONLY be stable once everyone (100%) has been infected and Malaysian deaths exceed 100,000. estimated to be around 150,000 deaths

once everyone infected, those who will die has already died then ONLY life in Malaysia will become normal.

after that business as usual.

until covid-19 randomly mutates again. Then history repeats itself.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 10:16 | Report Abuse

y Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 23, 2020 9:34 AM | Report Abuse

Aiyoh, please take another look at yinson contracts again
==========

I know what u are saying but I stand my ground.......

everyone saying their contracts are ring fenced........but when their principals die , they all die...........

asset price assumes that crude will go back to viable price within a few months............I guess that is what everyone assumes...........

be proactive means think ahead and If I am correct........they all die.


The last time, Sapura and the rest died, Yinson stand tall, they say all their contracts are ring fenced and very good management , very good planning and did not over extend themselves....and their principals did not die.


I am telling u........their business model never assumed oil price below $ 30............me? I think all off shore operations will die as a result of the virus.


There is no off shore operator profitable below $ 40............operator die, lessor die.........just basic reality.


if world go into recession/ depression, oil price above $ 40 for long term?

last time oil came down drastically was for technical reason and therefore temporary....well managed companies unscathed.........

if oil price go down for fundamental reasons.........even the best managed lessor also go down.


ring fenced or no ring fence............

Posted by paperplane > 2020-04-23 10:18 | Report Abuse

hehe.,

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 10:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > Apr 23, 2020 9:42 AM | Report Abuse

Just in case you missed it,

FPSO stands for floating production STORAGE and offloading.
============

storage....storage problems will be solved within 2 months............that is what forward contracts are telling you..........Aug deliveries got $ 10 premium over June deliveries......but even March 2021 wti price is only $ 30.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 10:55 | Report Abuse

turn the FPSO into storage tanks for third parties........I have no idea how much can be recouped that way..............but surely the shortage of tanks will not be so acute in a few months...........

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-23 11:07 | Report Abuse

In US when storage tank for fresh milk full. They will pour the fresh milk to the drain so that farmers still can go on and milk the cows.

Posted by paperplane > 2020-04-23 11:09 | Report Abuse

IM WAITING THE STUPID POST OF

WHAT I LOSE XXXX FUCKING AMOUNT MONEY, HOW I LEARN MY SORHAI , STUPID LESSON post........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 11:18 | Report Abuse

oil cannot pour into ocean.............or I hope they don't.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-04-23 11:37 | Report Abuse

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/15/business/milk-dumping-coronavirus/index.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-flower-industry-crash/

Posted by Philip ( Random Walk Theorist) > 2020-04-23 13:06 | Report Abuse

Standing your ground is a perfectly acceptable position as you are keeping everything cash and do not have any exposure at all.

Me? I will be putting my money to work just when everyone rather than is leaving the building, and investing more at wonderfully low valuations.

Now that blood is in the streets, then it is easy to buy low sell high, but no one is willing to do it. If you want to be a contrarian, now is the time to do it.

I will be one of the few that pile in cash and margin during this period.

Who is wrong or right? I will tell you next year.

All I know is, last year yinson was 4.20. today it is rm5. Since the price today is still higher than when I first bought it, I will choose to hold on and let quarterly results tell me what you do, and not newspapers, Facebook and i3 comments telling me what to do.

Let's see who is right.

>>>>>>>>>

I know what u are saying but I stand my ground....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-23 13:36 | Report Abuse

reports say all independent drillers die or dying, only ones to survive are the oil majors...........of course off shore drillers and Texas drillers first to die.

people holding Hibiscus, Dayang etc ought to be shot.

Yinson , how far away?

Yinson principals are the Exxon and BPs?

Posted by paperplane > 2020-04-23 14:09 | Report Abuse

no stpud post? i learn my fucking lesson?

Posted by paperplane > 2020-04-23 23:18 | Report Abuse

still waiting,...... i LEARN MY STUPID LESSON, SHLD NOT USE TOO MUCH MARGIN BLAH BLA BLAH. macam old ladies nagging

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-04-24 01:41 | Report Abuse

maybe I should take back my comments on Yinson as it appears all counter party risk of Yinson are sovereign risks with Ghana, Nigeria, Brazil, Vietnam , India no independent drillers...................

execution risks are minimum based on their track records.......